Diplomacy

Capital Calls: California flooding

11 Jan 2023

Concise views on global finance: Heavy rainfalls have revealed the cracks in California lawmakers’ disaster spending measures, that have helped to prepare for fires and earthquakes.

How geopolitical shocks will spread in 2023

10 Jan 2023

Traders and chief executives were caught out by shock events in 2022. In this Exchange podcast, Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, discusses the new risks emerging from China, Iran and Russia this year.

China’s wolf warriors start 2023 in retreat

10 Jan 2023

Beijing has taken the mic away from combative foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian. His transfer follows other de-escalatory moves like a thaw in trade with Australia and calls for healthier U.S. relations. But it will take years to undo the damage from nationalist trolls.

Polycrisis may lead to polycentric world order

19 Dec 2022

The United States is still top dog. But to contain China, it will need to listen to allies, take account of other powers and avoid throwing its weight around. Such “polycentrism” is the best chance to create order in a world struggling with multiple crises, says Hugo Dixon.

Qatar has got what it wanted from the World Cup

15 Dec 2022

The Gulf state has taken more flak than it would have done had it not staged the soccer tournament, which ends on Sunday. Yet in this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Qatar’s largely successful event also aids a strategy to make itself globally visible.

Friendshoring makes sense if done in the right way

5 Dec 2022

The United States and its allies want to build up suppliers of goods such as solar panels in friendly countries so they’re not vulnerable to Chinese disruptions or blackmail. To avoid self-harm they should define friends broadly and not attack China economically, says Hugo Dixon.

The bubble in predicting the end of the world

1 Dec 2022

The globe faces multiple threats to peace and prosperity. Several new books address the challenges of enormous debt, geopolitical rivalries and climate change, predicting disastrous consequences. The best thing investors can do is keep a level head, writes Edward Chancellor.

Gulf’s World Cup love-in has uncertain shelf life

25 Nov 2022

Egypt and Turkey used the tournament to smooth over old differences, and ex-rivals Saudi Arabia and Qatar are getting along. Riyadh may even use its new oil heft to put $5 bln in cash-strapped Ankara’s central bank. The risk is new tensions, perhaps over Iran, upend the goodwill.

UK and EU’s new goodwill could be significant

23 Nov 2022

British PM Rishi Sunak wants to improve trade relations with the EU. Progress will only be piecemeal and slow, even if the two sides agree on how to implement their 2019 deal on Ireland. In the meantime small deals are possible, and they could normalise the path to closer ties.

EU gas cap is indirect signal to cut power demand

23 Nov 2022

The bloc’s proposed brake on natural gas prices at 275 euros per megawatt hour is a fig leaf. The ceiling is so high and with such stringent conditions that it may never be activated. Its main use may be to remind EU states their best option is to use energy more efficiently.

The world can harness trade to save the planet

21 Nov 2022

Trade is a major cause of global warming. The solution is to tax commerce in carbon-intensive goods and remove tariffs on clean ones, to support low-carbon technologies, and to do all this fairly. It’s a priority for next year’s COP28 conference in Dubai, says Hugo Dixon.

Indonesia’s green step not yet a leap for mankind

18 Nov 2022

Jakarta will get $20 bln of overseas public and private cash to help it decarbonise. The deal struck at the COP27 summit paves the way to channel capital to poor countries at the required scale. But big foreign transfers are fraught. Lenders have plenty of reason to hesitate.

COP28 may make up for COP27’s shortcomings

17 Nov 2022

The global climate meeting has mostly failed to lure the same corporate big hitters as Glasgow did last year. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how even if the gathering in Egypt’s Sharm El-Sheikh yields little progress, 2023 in the UAE could be better.

The shafts of light in a dark, dark world

14 Nov 2022

As the G20 kicks off, there are many negatives: a frying planet, economic crisis, conflict in Ukraine, and maybe a cold war with China. But there are positives too, says Hugo Dixon: Putin is losing, autocrats are struggling, and carbon emissions may peak earlier than expected.

Europe’s pain will be ultimately worth it

31 Oct 2022

The European Union faces a tough period as the energy crisis bites and debt troubles return. But the bloc could have the world’s cheapest and cleanest energy by the mid-2030s and it will probably emerge stronger geopolitically, says Hugo Dixon.

America throws South Korean chipmakers for a loop

28 Oct 2022

Samsung and SK Hynix dominate the memory market and can adjust output to protect profits as demand falls. But that flexibility will be eroded under Washington's export curbs against China, where the pair have factories. It's an example of the unforeseen effects from the tech war.

U.S. high-tech chip curb risks lower-tech blowback

11 Oct 2022

Washington’s export controls hinder China from developing advanced semiconductors needed for supercomputers and the like. But the ban may prompt Chinese chipmakers to hasten their progress in the commoditised parts of the market, embedding firms like SMIC in global supply chains.

How West can mobilise trillions to help save Earth

10 Oct 2022

On top of stopping global warming, rich nations have geopolitical reasons to help the countries in the Global South transition from fossil fuels. America’s call for the World Bank to focus more on global needs like climate change is a step in the right direction, says Hugo Dixon.

Europe can shrug off Putin’s Chinese gas Plan B

14 Sep 2022

With exports to its key European market shrinking fast, Moscow hopes to hike gas exports to the People’s Republic. But last year these were just 7% of EU sales, and logistics and sanctions complicate the shift. It need not deter Europe’s talk of a Russian gas price cap.

Europe energy fallout will cascade down the years

12 Sep 2022

The gas crisis is a long-term problem which will make the region poorer and less competitive while saddling it with higher public debt. Dealing with this as well as high inflation will cause further political ructions which will cascade down the years, says Hugo Dixon.