Diplomacy

UK begins long and uncertain road back from Brexit

27 Feb 2023

Rishi Sunak agreed a deal over Northern Ireland trade with the European Union. If the UK leader can get it past his own party, it should improve relations and collaboration. Closer links will need bigger compromises than Sunak can stomach, but his deal is symbolically important.

Ukraine’s long shadow on business and geopolitics

23 Feb 2023

It’s been 12 months since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how energy markets have changed for good, how defence companies are benefiting, and another potential conflict troubling CEOs and investors.

Ukraine yet to make defence a safe investor haven

20 Feb 2023

Kyiv’s pressing call for weapons to defeat Russia dominated a top security forum in Munich. With defence budgets rising, some investors and banks are tempted to engage more with military hardware firms. For most, however, lethal weapons will remain a no-go investment zone.

Economic war with China would be MAD

14 Feb 2023

The prospect of mutually assured destruction averted nuclear conflict during the Cold War. Hopefully, fear of the economic equivalent will stop a showdown with China. But after the shooting down of a Chinese balloon, tensions are rising and errors are possible, says Hugo Dixon.

Hydrogen is elemental to U.S.-EU green compromise

10 Feb 2023

Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has raised fears of a transatlantic subsidy spat. The sustainably produced version of hydrogen may be a way to de-escalate tensions. Because it’s a potential jobs engine rather than a current one, both sides have scope for a face-saving deal.

Europe is playing catch-up in green subsidy race

9 Feb 2023

The U.S. unveiled $369 bln of climate subsidies for consumers and manufacturers. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why Brussels may need to launch a similarly ambitious plan or risk losing its share of jobs of the future.

U.S.-China rewarming trade is half-full of hot air

3 Feb 2023

The United States is tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon. That will sour any meeting between the global giants next week and rattle investors who thought the relationship had found a bottom. Beijing’s aggression is here to stay; financial risks are mostly in the White House.

Capital Calls: TikTok’s Beltway visit

30 Jan 2023

Concise views on global finance: The social media app’s CEO Shou Zi Chew is going in front of a U.S. Congressional committee. But it’s leaders outside of Washington that Chew needs to convince.

Creative green finance can go a long way in 2023

23 Jan 2023

Rich democracies are keen to help the Global South fight climate change, in part for geopolitical reasons. Though they will struggle to write big cheques, there are ways to make a little cash go a long way, says Hugo Dixon. 2023 is a key year to drive these ideas over the line.

Davos, Inc. finds reasons to be less gloomy

20 Jan 2023

Business leaders gathering in the Swiss mountain resort have plenty to fret about. Still, with China reopening, Europe keeping the lights on and interest rate pressure easing, the overriding emotion is one of relief. Less clear is whether the mood extends beyond the alpine elite.

The fog in the English Channel is clearing a bit

16 Jan 2023

Britain won’t rejoin the EU soon, despite voters’ regrets over Brexit. But if the two sides resolve a Northern Ireland dispute there could be progress on topics such as climate, foreign policy and financial services. Much may have to wait for a new UK government, says Hugo Dixon.

Global energy prices face a turbulent 2023

12 Jan 2023

The cost of natural gas has halved from a peak last year thanks to warmer weather and bulky European stores. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why it’s too early for companies and households to rule out further supply shocks and price volatility.

Guest view: Debt fixes can help rebuild Ukraine

11 Jan 2023

Even as Russia’s invasion ravages the country, policymakers need to start planning for reconstruction, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. States and private creditors will chip in. U.S.-backed Brady bonds, which helped ease past crises, can provide further relief.

Capital Calls: California flooding

11 Jan 2023

Concise views on global finance: Heavy rainfalls have revealed the cracks in California lawmakers’ disaster spending measures, that have helped to prepare for fires and earthquakes.

How geopolitical shocks will spread in 2023

10 Jan 2023

Traders and chief executives were caught out by shock events in 2022. In this Exchange podcast, Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, discusses the new risks emerging from China, Iran and Russia this year.

China’s wolf warriors start 2023 in retreat

10 Jan 2023

Beijing has taken the mic away from combative foreign ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian. His transfer follows other de-escalatory moves like a thaw in trade with Australia and calls for healthier U.S. relations. But it will take years to undo the damage from nationalist trolls.

Polycrisis may lead to polycentric world order

19 Dec 2022

The United States is still top dog. But to contain China, it will need to listen to allies, take account of other powers and avoid throwing its weight around. Such “polycentrism” is the best chance to create order in a world struggling with multiple crises, says Hugo Dixon.

Qatar has got what it wanted from the World Cup

15 Dec 2022

The Gulf state has taken more flak than it would have done had it not staged the soccer tournament, which ends on Sunday. Yet in this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how Qatar’s largely successful event also aids a strategy to make itself globally visible.

Friendshoring makes sense if done in the right way

5 Dec 2022

The United States and its allies want to build up suppliers of goods such as solar panels in friendly countries so they’re not vulnerable to Chinese disruptions or blackmail. To avoid self-harm they should define friends broadly and not attack China economically, says Hugo Dixon.

The bubble in predicting the end of the world

1 Dec 2022

The globe faces multiple threats to peace and prosperity. Several new books address the challenges of enormous debt, geopolitical rivalries and climate change, predicting disastrous consequences. The best thing investors can do is keep a level head, writes Edward Chancellor.