Diplomacy

New EU debt rules have way to avoid past mistakes

4 Apr 2023

The European Union’s old stability pact was a poorly fitting straitjacket, yet recrafting it is politically fraught. The bloc now aims to replace strict diktats with medium-term goals. A successful framework can revive growth. But it will only work if countries follow it.

OPEC’s oil cut is less surprising than it looks

3 Apr 2023

The producer group’s shock call to slash output by another 1 mln daily barrels will annoy Joe Biden and spur inflation fears. But de facto leader Saudi Arabia had already shown it would ignore US wishes. And Chinese demand is sufficiently uncertain to justify pre-emptive action.

China sanctions red line has shifted westward

21 Mar 2023

President Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has rekindled concerns Beijing could get too cosy with Vladimir Putin. Arming Russia would likely trigger a joint Western diplomatic response even in the absence of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing is walking a thinning tightrope.

Economic asphyxiation puts Russia in China’s orbit

20 Mar 2023

Moscow needs up to $90 bln to fund its budget deficit this year. As sanctions keep biting, financing the shortfall will slowly add to the economy’s woes. Russia’s need to use the yuan for trade and payments will also increase Vladimir Putin’s dependence on Beijing.

EU and US green arms race misses bigger picture

16 Mar 2023

The European Union’s response to Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act gives member states leeway to push back with their own green subsidies. Yet plans for production targets are misguided. To decarbonise while managing China risks, it’s better to seek common ground with the US.

Middle East pivot to Asia is strategic this time

14 Mar 2023

A restoration of diplomatic ties between Saudi and Iran is a big win for its broker China. After prior false starts, the Middle East and Asia have a growing mutual interest in helping each other advance their energy and trade security. For bankers, financial deals will follow.

UK’s Brexit fix has perks for all sides

2 Mar 2023

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak agreed a trade deal with the European Union this week. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain what the accord will mean for future relations between Britain and the 27-nation bloc and how Northern Ireland may get an economic boost.

UK begins long and uncertain road back from Brexit

27 Feb 2023

Rishi Sunak agreed a deal over Northern Ireland trade with the European Union. If the UK leader can get it past his own party, it should improve relations and collaboration. Closer links will need bigger compromises than Sunak can stomach, but his deal is symbolically important.

Ukraine’s long shadow on business and geopolitics

23 Feb 2023

It’s been 12 months since Russian President Vladimir Putin’s bloody invasion. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how energy markets have changed for good, how defence companies are benefiting, and another potential conflict troubling CEOs and investors.

Ukraine yet to make defence a safe investor haven

20 Feb 2023

Kyiv’s pressing call for weapons to defeat Russia dominated a top security forum in Munich. With defence budgets rising, some investors and banks are tempted to engage more with military hardware firms. For most, however, lethal weapons will remain a no-go investment zone.

Economic war with China would be MAD

14 Feb 2023

The prospect of mutually assured destruction averted nuclear conflict during the Cold War. Hopefully, fear of the economic equivalent will stop a showdown with China. But after the shooting down of a Chinese balloon, tensions are rising and errors are possible, says Hugo Dixon.

Hydrogen is elemental to U.S.-EU green compromise

10 Feb 2023

Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act has raised fears of a transatlantic subsidy spat. The sustainably produced version of hydrogen may be a way to de-escalate tensions. Because it’s a potential jobs engine rather than a current one, both sides have scope for a face-saving deal.

Europe is playing catch-up in green subsidy race

9 Feb 2023

The U.S. unveiled $369 bln of climate subsidies for consumers and manufacturers. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why Brussels may need to launch a similarly ambitious plan or risk losing its share of jobs of the future.

U.S.-China rewarming trade is half-full of hot air

3 Feb 2023

The United States is tracking a suspected Chinese spy balloon. That will sour any meeting between the global giants next week and rattle investors who thought the relationship had found a bottom. Beijing’s aggression is here to stay; financial risks are mostly in the White House.

Capital Calls: TikTok’s Beltway visit

30 Jan 2023

Concise views on global finance: The social media app’s CEO Shou Zi Chew is going in front of a U.S. Congressional committee. But it’s leaders outside of Washington that Chew needs to convince.

Creative green finance can go a long way in 2023

23 Jan 2023

Rich democracies are keen to help the Global South fight climate change, in part for geopolitical reasons. Though they will struggle to write big cheques, there are ways to make a little cash go a long way, says Hugo Dixon. 2023 is a key year to drive these ideas over the line.

Davos, Inc. finds reasons to be less gloomy

20 Jan 2023

Business leaders gathering in the Swiss mountain resort have plenty to fret about. Still, with China reopening, Europe keeping the lights on and interest rate pressure easing, the overriding emotion is one of relief. Less clear is whether the mood extends beyond the alpine elite.

The fog in the English Channel is clearing a bit

16 Jan 2023

Britain won’t rejoin the EU soon, despite voters’ regrets over Brexit. But if the two sides resolve a Northern Ireland dispute there could be progress on topics such as climate, foreign policy and financial services. Much may have to wait for a new UK government, says Hugo Dixon.

Global energy prices face a turbulent 2023

12 Jan 2023

The cost of natural gas has halved from a peak last year thanks to warmer weather and bulky European stores. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss why it’s too early for companies and households to rule out further supply shocks and price volatility.

Guest view: Debt fixes can help rebuild Ukraine

11 Jan 2023

Even as Russia’s invasion ravages the country, policymakers need to start planning for reconstruction, write William Rhodes and Stuart Mackintosh. States and private creditors will chip in. U.S.-backed Brady bonds, which helped ease past crises, can provide further relief.