Diplomacy

COP28 deal just about keeps net zero on the road

13 Dec 2023

Nations at the climate shindig agreed to start transitioning away from fossil fuels. The wording could have been tougher and clearer, and the world still faces harmful warming. But the Dubai meeting could have yielded a damaging standstill, rather than a baby step forward.

COP28 oil-fest still has a path to credibility

8 Dec 2023

Unlike Glasgow’s COP26, Dubai’s version of the global climate meet has involved polluters like Exxon Mobil. COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber’s dual role as an oil boss has also come under intense scrutiny. Yet his renewables goals also imply global crude output may soon wane.

US and India’s strengthening bond is weak on trust

30 Nov 2023

New Delhi reacted soberly when the Justice Department linked a government official to a murder plot on US soil. It highlights the duo’s deepening financial and strategic ties. China and growing trade links give President Joe Biden reasons not to get too tough, for now.

Foxconn is still running with difficult status quo

27 Nov 2023

Terry Gou’s exit from Taiwan’s presidential election race may shield the $45 bln firm he founded from immediate political crossfire from Beijing. However, the Apple supplier’s push to move production outside of China leaves it firmly on frontlines of rising cross-strait tensions.

American CEOs serve China’s Xi a too-rich dessert

16 Nov 2023

Tim Cook and Steve Schwarzman were among attendees at a dinner where the Chinese president got a standing ovation. For business leaders to curry favor with Xi’s regime is not new. Doing it so performatively, and on home turf, suggests there’s such a thing as too much harmony.

Biden and Xi’s warmer ties look flimsy

16 Nov 2023

The leaders of the largest economies resumed high-level communication following years of tension. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain how Taiwan as well as anti-China rhetoric in the lead-up to next year’s US election could undo any goodwill.

The West could live with a frozen Ukraine conflict

13 Nov 2023

For Kyiv and its allies a stalemate is not as good as a victory. Ukraine would need help shoring up its defences, and there’s a cost to maintaining sanctions against Russia. But triumph is unlikely and a deadlock would still mostly achieve the main goal: denying Moscow victory.

Weak Biden-Xi handshake would send strong message

10 Nov 2023

The US and Chinese presidents may meet next week in San Francisco as tit-for-tat retaliations pressure trade. Beijing remains combative towards Taiwan while Americans coalesce on anti-China issues. De-escalating tensions can benefit both sides but is not politically expedient.

Israel’s war is a risk and opportunity for Saudi

31 Oct 2023

Hamas’s attacks complicate Mohammed bin Salman’s aim to build relations with the Israeli state, Gulf expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen says in this Exchange podcast. But if the Saudi crown prince can use his leverage to help Palestinians, it may help his image at home and abroad.

Israel war tests US appeal to global swing states

30 Oct 2023

US power in part hangs on its claim to pursue a principles-based foreign policy. The Gaza conflict has led to accusations of double standards. If these stick, the United States’ attempts to woo developing countries as part of its new Cold War with China could suffer.

Influencer model infects US political fundraising

27 Oct 2023

The US House elected a speaker after four people gave it a try. The chaos partly reflects how politicians now receive support. Social media enables them to reach voters without the backing of their party. The new way to create star power will disrupt politics as it has Hollywood.

Qatar can weather latest foreign stress test

27 Oct 2023

The Gulf emirate is under scrutiny for its links to Hamas, six years after a blockade by neighbours. One risk is that its $450 bln sovereign wealth fund gets a frostier reception. But Doha’s giant gas reserves and its role as mediator and US ally should protect its clout.

China’s Middle East agenda gets harder to manage

23 Oct 2023

The country’s private refineries have been snapping up over 90% of Iran’s cheap crude exports. Tighter US sanctions in the face of the Islamic Republic’s support for Hamas could turn these customers away. That would cut across Chinese efforts to grow influence in the region.

India and Japan will be Asia’s next power couple

19 Oct 2023

Modi and Kishida's governments partner on security and are setting up a $600 mln fund to co-invest in green infrastructure. It's a fresh sign that financial ties, including potentially on cross-border commodities M&A, may flourish to match the strengthening geopolitical bond.

The financial ramifications of US-China tensions

17 Oct 2023

The rivalry between the world’s two largest powers is having an impact on almost every aspect of global business and finance. In this episode of The Exchange podcast, Jared Cohen from Goldman Sachs discusses how investors should approach geopolitics, and the limits of decoupling.

US grand strategy can prop up the global order

16 Oct 2023

The horror in Israel and Gaza is a new blow to a fragile world. But the United States can prevent the rules-based order from collapsing by continuing to steer a steady course with regards to Russia and China. The biggest risk would be the return of Donald Trump as president.

Israel war casts US as flawed-but-familiar haven

9 Oct 2023

Dysfunction in D.C. continues to freeze legislation, including new aid for Israel. Despite that, past conflicts – 9/11, Ukraine’s war with Russia – suggest the dollar will remain the safe haven. Investors’ reckoning with budgets, infighting, and an election will have to wait.

The EU is stuck with its one-trick refugee policy

9 Oct 2023

Africans and Asians fleeing persecution could boost the European Union’s ageing workforce. But its leaders are so scared of nationalism at home they prefer to pay North African regimes to stop asylum-seekers crossing the Mediterranean. It’s a short-term fix, says Hugo Dixon.

Western rival to Belt and Road has much to prove

25 Sep 2023

The G7’s $600 bln plan to compete with China’s flagging investment push has launched splashy railway and energy schemes in Africa and Asia. But governments and private investors haven’t put up much cash. It’s also unclear how poor countries will avoid debt traps, says Hugo Dixon.

M&A spillover in India-Canada fight hurts everyone

22 Sep 2023

As bilateral relations sour over a murder, tycoon Sajjan Jindal is going slow on his planned $8 bln consortium bid led by JSW Steel for Vancouver-based Teck’s coal assets. The stalling hurts the buyer and the seller, and India’s diversification ambitions a bit more.