Diplomacy

The Exchange: Pascal Lamy

6 Nov 2018

Few people have dedicated their careers to expanding international trade and globalism like Lamy, the former head of the WTO and EU commissioner. But rising rhetoric and increased tariffs between the U.S. and China have him worried, as he tells Rob Cox and Liam Proud in Paris.

U.S.-China mistrust heightens armed-conflict risk

5 Nov 2018

A near-collision between American and Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea is a dangerous sign. Both militaries are stepping up readiness. With trade tensions high and the usual back channels dysfunctional, a clash – or worse – is a concern investors should not dismiss.

Tough U.S. Iran sanctions talk meets oil economics

2 Nov 2018

Eight countries can temporarily keep importing Iranian oil without defying sanctions. Top U.S. diplomat Mike Pompeo says the aim is still to go to zero. With a domestic election and Saudi in a mess, it’s a way to keep acting tough while limiting the risk of oil price spikes.

Cox: Saudenfreude over Khashoggi absent from Doha

25 Oct 2018

As Mohammed bin Salman’s blockade of Qatar nears the year and a half mark, it would be easy for the tiny-but-rich Gulf state to gloat over the kingdom’s woes. But chaos across the border is a big worry. A quiet high road is paying off for Qatar. Even MbS seems to agree.

Saudi oil could help grease Turkish discretion

24 Oct 2018

Leaked details of a Saudi journalist’s death have dominated Turkish media but President Erdogan hasn’t yet directly implicated the kindgom’s crown prince. Ankara may be hoping to use its leverage to help its economy. The lira has recovered, but cheap oil would still help.

Trump’s Saudi arms deal isn’t a jobs offensive

23 Oct 2018

The U.S. president is urging Congress not to sanction Saudi Arabia by blocking arms sales, saying that could jeopardize 1 million jobs. The deal would probably boost profit margins for Lockheed and others but not do much for employment. Claims to the contrary are largely spin.

The Exchange: Stephen Harper

19 Oct 2018

Canada’s former prime minister, in office through the financial meltdown a decade ago, is an advocate for conservative politics with a small “c.” He talked to Breakingviews about the revamped NAFTA, Donald Trump’s standoff with China and the pros and cons of the loonie.

Viewsroom: Saudi fiasco sets Wall Street ablaze

18 Oct 2018

Bankers and officials have ditched a huge Saudi shindig after Turkey accused the kingdom of killing a prominent journalist – but big deal fees and oil reserves make the kingdom hard to shun. Breakingviews columnists discuss the financial ramifications of the diplomatic crisis.

U.S.-EU derivatives kumbaya could get canned

18 Oct 2018

The U.S. swaps regulator wants to increase global cooperation. But trade tensions, Iran sanctions and a long and painful history of overreach by the U.S. itself are reasons for Europe to say no. Even though both sides could benefit, attempts at playing nice could come to grief.

Oil makes Saudi Arabia slippery sanctions target

16 Oct 2018

U.S. lawmakers are invoking a law used to impose Russian sanctions to demand answers about a missing journalist. There’s momentum for a similar penalty for the kingdom. But Saudi retaliation could hike oil prices - the opposite of what President Trump has been agitating for.

Wall Street shows Trump the way on Saudi Arabia

15 Oct 2018

BlackRock’s Larry Fink and Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone have joined other CEOs in skipping Riyadh’s “Davos in the Desert”. Private sector boycotts usually follow state sanctions. The U.S. government’s inaction reflects its reliance on Saudi Arabia, and fear of high oil prices.

Cox: Global finance has a Saudi Arabia problem

14 Oct 2018

Wall Street bosses and their European and Japanese peers are reconsidering next week’s “Davos in the Desert.” Like China, there’s money at stake. Unlike Russia there’s no guidance from above. A coordinated pullout following Jamie Dimon’s withdrawal is their least-bad option.

Car parts could be China’s trade sledgehammer

10 Oct 2018

Beijing is running out of U.S. imports to tax but it has other ways to make things ugly. American carmakers depend on an uninterrupted flow of imported parts, and China is the No. 2 supplier. Any attempt to disrupt component shipments could throttle the likes of Ford and GM.

Anti-OPEC bill may squeeze U.S. oil industry

10 Oct 2018

The disappearance of a Saudi journalist is helping to breathe life into a bipartisan effort to subject the cartel to U.S. antitrust law. But it may prove more useful as a threat than reality. America’s energy producers benefit from OPEC’s price-fixing, too.

U.S.-China trade war morphs into loyalty test

4 Oct 2018

Vice President Mike Pence wants Google to halt a search-app project in China. He also said Beijing tried to get an American company to denounce U.S. policies in exchange for a license. With tariffs already imposed on most products, warped patriotism provides a new battleground.

U.S. fritters oil stockpile at worst time

1 Oct 2018

While President Trump chides OPEC, his Iran sanctions are pushing up prices. Meanwhile the government is selling down its stockpile to plug a budget hole, not calm the market. With shale producers constrained, the White House should be more strategic with its crude reserve.

Donald Trump sets WTO up for failure

27 Sep 2018

The system for resolving commerce disputes may grind to a halt after the United States blocked the reappointment of an appeal judge at the global trade body. The president’s disdain for the organisation is no secret, but the move undermines its value to other countries, too.

Congress is too close to crying wolf on trade

25 Sep 2018

America and Canada aren’t near a NAFTA deal and time is short. U.S. lawmakers have said they won’t accept the U.S.-Mexico only pact favored by Trump, but some have criticized Ottawa. If they back down, there’s little hope for any meaningful brake on steel tariffs and the like.

Delaying NAFTA deal is actually a win-win-win

31 Aug 2018

Canada and the United States will keep talking despite missing a deadline to resolve trade talks. Negotiators will need to move quickly to avoid the risk of fresh demands from the next Mexican government. But a NAFTA that all sides can sell is more important.

NAFTA survival rests on Ottawa showmanship

29 Aug 2018

Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland is talking up how Mexico’s U.S. “concessions” help Canada. Now she needs a deal, not least on the country’s punitive dairy tariffs, that keeps both the U.S. president and her anti-Trump fellow citizens happy. That’ll require some smooth talking.