Diplomacy

Ukraine ‘peace dividend’ will be paid by Europe

13 Feb 2025

President Donald Trump’s talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may end Moscow’s war. For the EU this won’t mean lower defence spending. The likely end of the US security blanket, and an emboldened Russia, will force Europeans to accelerate their military overhaul.

Ending US aid will heat up sovereign debt fights

13 Feb 2025

There’s a strong case for reforming the global foreign-assistance industry. But President Donald Trump’s approach is blunt and deadly. It may also trigger a crisis in low-income countries that are heavily dependent on aid before it provides Washington any extra leverage.

Migration jeopardises Modi’s US charm offensive

11 Feb 2025

The Indian leader has already cut import duties ahead of his meeting with President Trump this week. Narrowing a $35 bln trade surplus with the US also looks manageable with oil and arms purchases. But finding a similarly beneficial deal on illegal migration will be tough.

EU’s Trump plan requires carrots, sticks and vibes

10 Feb 2025

Given the president’s tariff antics, Brussels needs a plan of action. Beyond identifying tit-for-tat levies, the EU may also face US pressure to ease up on Big Tech regulation. The best counter is growth-friendly signals, and to exploit its scope to deploy its own rules flexibly.

The end of the West may be nigh

10 Feb 2025

China’s rise had already put the world’s rich democracies on the defensive. Now Donald Trump is swinging a wrecking ball at the alliances, values and institutions that underpin Western power. While it may be possible to salvage something, the omens are not good.

Tariff whiplash fires up China stimulus games

4 Feb 2025

President Trump paused steep levies on Mexico and Canada but his aggression against allies puts a worst-case scenario for Beijing back on the table. Chinese policymakers can't avert disaster just by honouring its last trade truce with the US. They'll need to be unusually nimble.

Trump’s economic trench warfare needs an off-ramp

3 Feb 2025

The US president is betting his economy can weather a tariffs tit-for-tat better than Canada and Mexico. But it'll raise inflation for Americans, too, and it's hard to see how he wins. Even if the battle is short, Washington's poor treatment of allies will have lasting effects.

India’s tax cuts grasp at a fleeting growth fix

3 Feb 2025

By hiking the income-tax exemption threshold, Narendra Modi’s government hopes the middle class will go out and spend. But that leaves the state relying on 1% of the working age population to help pay its bills. It throws the urgency to tackle stagnant wages into sharp relief.

The economics of war and peace in Ukraine

28 Jan 2025

It’s almost three years since Russia invaded, unleashing death and devastation. In this live edition of The Big View podcast, economist and former minister Tymofiy Mylovanov talks about the damage to both sides, the effect of sanctions, and what a peace deal might look like.

Colombia spat is pyrrhic start to Trump trade wars

27 Jan 2025

The US president declared victory after threatening a trade war with the country over deportation flights. But to prove it’s no bluff may mean following through on promised levies on Canada and Mexico that risk real domestic harm - before even getting to the big issue of China.

Davos presents elites with economic Rorschach Test

27 Jan 2025

Delegates in the Swiss ski resort hailed Donald Trump’s deregulatory plans and got starry-eyed about AI. Others worried about inflation, debt, and fossil fuels, while Europeans bemoaned their back yard. Assessing the “mood in Davos” reveals more about the observer than the world.

Trump’s day-one flurry buries plenty

23 Jan 2025

The new US president began his term with a rush of orders signaling an immigration crackdown, shifting energy policy and more. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how much will stick and why the trade barriers at the heart of his agenda are missing.

A TikTok deal may be good for US-China trade

22 Jan 2025

President Trump has warned of 100% tariffs on the People's Republic if Beijing doesn't approve a sale of the video app owned by Chinese firm ByteDance. How such a deal would look is unclear, but it'd be an easy way for both sides to show goodwill ahead of thornier trade talks.

TSMC teases an alternative reality for AI

17 Jan 2025

The $870 bln chipmaker logged a record quarterly profit and kept its rosy forecasts. Trouble is, most of the assumptions underpinning them may be obsolete once Donald Trump becomes president in a few days. With more trade and tech wars looming, TSMC investors may be too sanguine.

Greenland gambit takes nearshoring to absurd ends

13 Jan 2025

A hostile US takeover of the Danish island would secure control of minerals used to make smartphones and EVs. It also might undercut supply chains and years of chipping away at China’s rare-earths dominance. It’s a classic case of cooperation triumphing over expansionist autarky.

Russia oil sanctions cut Trump wiggle room on Iran

13 Jan 2025

The US has targeted tankers selling Russian oil to Asia, prompting a crude price spike. The actual impact is uncertain, and sanctions offer leverage against Moscow in a Ukraine peace deal. But a tighter oil market cuts across President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to squeeze Iran.

Trump’s peace pledge shows up in oil tanker rates

9 Jan 2025

The US president-elect has vowed to end the Ukraine and Gaza wars quickly. If Donald Trump does what he says, the impact on Russian sanctions and transit distances may be profound. The negative impact on tanker rates may be why firms transporting oil have taken a valuation hit.

Risk and resilience are the watchwords for 2025

6 Jan 2025

In the past five years, the world economy has weathered disease and war. As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, the range of possible outcomes is wider than ever. Hefty sovereign debts and pumped-up stocks depend on the planet once again coping with fresh shocks.

India’s reformist ex-PM warrants some imitation

27 Dec 2024

Manmohan Singh, who unshackled the country’s economy and lifted many out of poverty, has died aged 92. Current leader Narendra Modi would benefit from channelling his zeal for change amid slowing growth. Singh’s legacy, marred by corruption, is a reminder of the challenges ahead.

EU joint debt will reappear despite French squalls

18 Dec 2024

Covid-19 saw the European Union ditch its qualms about issuing bonds backed by the 27-state bloc. Ukraine could spur a similar leap forward. France’s political turmoil is a problem, but Russian aggression and US inaction could force member states to club together to fund defence.