Diplomacy

G7 risks becoming G-zero without consensus

7 Jun 2018

President Donald Trump is the sore thumb among leaders meeting in Canada on Friday. Last year’s G7 pledges were already watered down, and he hadn’t then left the global climate accord or started erecting trade barriers. The forum loses relevance if it lacks U.S. economic backing.

The Exchange: A Down Under take on Trump

6 Jun 2018

Former Australia Prime Minister Kevin Rudd gives the U.S. president some credit for his dealings with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. But he explains that Donald Trump’s protectionism has enraged China’s leaders and may play into the hands of the country’s own nationalists.

U.S.-China trade gap is best filled with software

23 May 2018

Beijing plans to shrink the $375 bln surplus by buying commodities like oil and soybeans. Better to import intellectual property, and pay for the millions of unlicensed copies of Microsoft and Adobe products running in China. Local firms could use the productivity upgrade.

The Exchange: The failure and future of globalism

18 May 2018

Not everyone has been a winner from globalization. Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer talked to Amanda Gomez about his book “Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism” and discussed what political and business leaders can do to make the world economic system work for all.

Saudi gets new license to be selfish over oil

9 May 2018

Since 2016 the kingdom has championed output cuts that have drained a supply glut and helped spur prices. Now that the U.S. President has amped up sanctions on Iran, Saudi can fill any gap left by lower Iranian exports. What it loses on price, it gains in volume and U.S. gratitude.

U.S.-China trade gap adds spice to tariff talks

3 May 2018

The American trade deficit fell in March, yet the goods gap with China, $106 bln this year so far, keeps widening. That gives Steven Mnuchin more ammunition for meetings in Beijing. Threats of levies on imported goods may, more usefully, help prise open China’s service markets.

Trump spins trade wheel in friendlier direction

13 Apr 2018

The U.S. president is thinking of rejoining the TPP – an 11-member group set up in part as a bulwark against Trump's trading bugbear, China. Sharing should make that easier, while also appeasing American farmers. The question is whether Trump can compromise for long – or at all.

Viewsroom: The biggest loser, China or the U.S.?

10 Apr 2018

A volley of words threatens a trade war between PRC leader Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump. Developing China has much at risk in fighting with the world’s largest economy. But American businesses are vulnerable too. Plus: Meituan goes all-in with local services.

Canada’s insurance policy on NAFTA isn’t loony

23 Jan 2018

Negotiators have opened talks on revamping the trade pact, but their chances look slim. A U.S. pullout from NAFTA would affect Canadian exports amounting to nearly 20 pct of the country’s GDP. But Ottawa has other trade pacts in the works, and a flexible currency would help cushion any blow.

Viewsroom: China’s dubious shot across U.S. bow

11 Jan 2018

Talk of buying fewer of Uncle Sam’s bonds may be Beijing’s way of showing some teeth as the Trump administration mulls import tariffs. But as with other retaliatory trade tactics, it would hurt China too. Plus, why Nelson Peltz doesn’t want to be called an activist investor.

Trump will be party pooper-in-chief at Davos

10 Jan 2018

The U.S. president’s “America First” agenda is the antithesis of the Swiss conflab’s global ethos. His visit to the mountain resort may be a bid for reconciliation, or a pitch for strongman status. Either way, his presence is a stark rebuke to Davos elites who got him badly wrong.

China’s U.S debt talk reveals weak trade-war hand

10 Jan 2018

Beijing may slow or halt Treasuries purchases. It’s the biggest holder of Uncle Sam’s liabilities, so in theory the People’s Republic has leverage as the White House mulls imposing tariffs. As with other measures China could take, though, it would cause damage at home.

Canada will be biggest loser in U.S. trade spats

20 Dec 2017

Trump threatened China and Mexico with tariffs, but the real levies hit Canadian lumber and Bombardier jets. While Ottawa is pushing other trade deals, America is its biggest export market. Souring NAFTA talks and fights over dairy, wine and paper make it the chief target.

Trump’s China diagnosis falls short of a remedy

18 Dec 2017

The U.S. president is casting Beijing’s economic prowess as a national security threat. It may signal coming tariffs related to intellectual property and other issues. Yet aides say they also need China's help on North Korea. Increasing tensions just makes that more difficult.

Trump’s anti-WTO rhetoric hurts America first

11 Dec 2017

U.S. trade chief Robert Lighthizer has a tough message for the body’s biennial confab. The White House is also blocking new WTO appellate judges. Reforms are needed but America has won most of its complaints, including against China. Weakening it has consequences for U.S. firms.

Trump gives Xi first taste of trade acrimony ahead

29 Nov 2017

The afterglow of the U.S. president’s trip to China faded fast. Unimpressed by Beijing's progress on North Korea and market opening, he is taking an aggressive stance on aluminium dumping. This sets the stage for uglier, more economically significant fights on trade.

Breakdown: Redesigned TPP deal goes to 11

14 Nov 2017

The Pacific trade pact may be 70 pct less valuable in terms of global income. For Japan, Canada and nine others, though, good economic reasons exist to proceed. It's a defence against lopsided bilateral deals. And TPP could yet add partners to recapture many of the lost benefits.

Goldman imports Chinese money to lift U.S. trade

9 Nov 2017

The investment bank unveiled a plan to invest $5 bln in American manufacturers with Beijing sovereign fund CIC. In effect, pricey capital generated from trade deficits will go to help the heartland export to China. It's a rich idea to present an anti-globalist U.S. president.

Abe best off keeping Trump out of economic rough

3 Nov 2017

The Japanese premier has established an uncommonly good rapport with his U.S. counterpart. At their upcoming meetings, including on the golf course, Shinzo Abe would be well-served focusing on North Korea. Trade and currency matters only risk creating a momentum-slowing wedge.

Wall Street loses in search for easy China wins

1 Nov 2017

Energy and industrial companies like GE will get to cozy up to Beijing’s new leaders during Trump’s Asia trip, but financial services aren't part of the group. That reflects White House desires for low-hanging deals to tout, and dim hopes for improved market access.