China’s trade problems go well beyond Trump 21 Feb 2019 Beijing hopes harsh terms in any tariff pact could be undone if the U.S. president loses re-election. But Democratic White House hopefuls like Sherrod Brown and Bernie Sanders are also tough on China. No matter who wins in 2020, bashing the People’s Republic is here to stay.
Viewsroom: Why did PG&E file for bankruptcy? 31 Jan 2019 The California utility may face up to $30 bln in wildfire costs. But shareholders see value and lenders were willing to stump up cash. The board’s desire to cut other expenses may have driven the decision. Plus: How U.S. charges against Huawei may affect the telco industry.
Viewsroom: Global elite-lite takes Davos downer 24 Jan 2019 Pessimism reigns supreme at the annual gathering in the Swiss Alps thanks to trade wars, the U.S. government shutdown and rising populism. Several major leaders stayed away entirely. The event remains a networker’s dream, but self-awareness and problem-solving are sorely lacking.
Small nations will lose most from U.S. WTO fight 27 Dec 2018 The global trade body’s appeals panel may become paralyzed because of U.S. obstinacy. America, China and the EU can wring commerce concessions without filing complaints. Minnows like Panama and Moldova lack other recourse and will suffer if trade turns into a free-for-all.
A Trump versus Xi wrestling match might just help 26 Dec 2018 Maybe not a real one. But Tencent could tag-team with WWE to build Chinese versions of Triple H and The Undertaker, and vent a bit of trade tension. The $370 bln tech giant would make a burly partner; Tencent would score a PR coup, plus Trump access via co-founder Linda McMahon.
Shinzo Abe will strike accord with Donald Trump 19 Dec 2018 With some 5 mln autoworkers to protect from tariff pain, Japan’s prime minister will have little choice but to sign a bilateral U.S. trade deal. Expect the new NAFTA’s anti-China clause to feature. Seeking warmer relations with Tokyo, Beijing is apt to look the other way.
Canada faces off against vampire squid to south 17 Dec 2018 U.S. tax cuts and protectionism are going to suck the life out of the Canadian economy. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has two options: join the fiscal race to the bottom, or address the reasons Canada was already falling behind its neighbor. Looming elections add to the urgency.
Trade-war détente leaves booby traps for investors 2 Dec 2018 New tariffs are on hold while China vowed to buy more U.S. goods and may reconsider the Qualcomm-NXP deal. Despite the upbeat tone, President Trump and his hawkish advisers may push too hard. A small 90-day window to hash out an agreement also means things could easily blow up.
Bush paid history’s economic dividends forward 1 Dec 2018 During the 41st U.S. president's one term, Soviet communism fell and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was foiled. The "kinder, gentler" Bush was the last of a Washington breed that sought compromise. He put country over party. His successors reaped, and then squandered, the benefits.
Island gambit hints at Beijing’s new lower gear 23 Nov 2018 U.S. Vice President Mike Pence has intimated China intends to drown Pacific nations in a sea of debt. The actual approach, however, has been reluctantly pragmatic, as in a move to delay repayments from Tonga. The result may be a more sustainable version of the Belt and Road plan.
G20 showdown hangs on big numbers, big egos 21 Nov 2018 Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s upcoming meeting is weighing on markets. Despite discord among his aides, the U.S. president has the autonomy to strike a deal if China offers the right incentives. His interest in trade balances and historical strongmen creates an opportunity.
Mexico’s revolutionaries risk spoiling the party 12 Nov 2018 President-elect López Obrador doesn’t take office until next month, but he and his fellow leftists have already upset markets with moves to nix an airport project and rein in bank fees. Such fumbles could help guide Brazil’s far-right populist Jair Bolsonaro as he nears power too.
Trade war ushers in the compartmentalized economy 8 Nov 2018 Beijing and Washington’s conscious uncoupling could unravel decades-old commercial ties. That doesn’t mean the rest of the world has to choose sides. Companies like electronics maker Philips are mulling how to take advantage of both markets. Business can continue, at a cost.
The Exchange: Pascal Lamy 6 Nov 2018 Few people have dedicated their careers to expanding international trade and globalism like Lamy, the former head of the WTO and EU commissioner. But rising rhetoric and increased tariffs between the U.S. and China have him worried, as he tells Rob Cox and Liam Proud in Paris.
U.S.-China mistrust heightens armed-conflict risk 5 Nov 2018 A near-collision between American and Chinese naval vessels in the South China Sea is a dangerous sign. Both militaries are stepping up readiness. With trade tensions high and the usual back channels dysfunctional, a clash – or worse – is a concern investors should not dismiss.
Tough U.S. Iran sanctions talk meets oil economics 2 Nov 2018 Eight countries can temporarily keep importing Iranian oil without defying sanctions. Top U.S. diplomat Mike Pompeo says the aim is still to go to zero. With a domestic election and Saudi in a mess, it’s a way to keep acting tough while limiting the risk of oil price spikes.
Cox: Saudenfreude over Khashoggi absent from Doha 25 Oct 2018 As Mohammed bin Salman’s blockade of Qatar nears the year and a half mark, it would be easy for the tiny-but-rich Gulf state to gloat over the kingdom’s woes. But chaos across the border is a big worry. A quiet high road is paying off for Qatar. Even MbS seems to agree.
Saudi oil could help grease Turkish discretion 24 Oct 2018 Leaked details of a Saudi journalist’s death have dominated Turkish media but President Erdogan hasn’t yet directly implicated the kindgom’s crown prince. Ankara may be hoping to use its leverage to help its economy. The lira has recovered, but cheap oil would still help.
Trump’s Saudi arms deal isn’t a jobs offensive 23 Oct 2018 The U.S. president is urging Congress not to sanction Saudi Arabia by blocking arms sales, saying that could jeopardize 1 million jobs. The deal would probably boost profit margins for Lockheed and others but not do much for employment. Claims to the contrary are largely spin.
The Exchange: Stephen Harper 19 Oct 2018 Canada’s former prime minister, in office through the financial meltdown a decade ago, is an advocate for conservative politics with a small “c.” He talked to Breakingviews about the revamped NAFTA, Donald Trump’s standoff with China and the pros and cons of the loonie.