Diplomacy

Pig crisis gives China a shot at transparency

18 Sep 2019

African swine fever has driven local pork prices up by about 50% in a year. Inflation remains muted regardless, prompting some speculation that officials may be massaging the figures. Other factors make that unlikely, but it's a rare opportunity for Beijing to open up – a little.

Washington casts longer shadow over Hong Kong

16 Sep 2019

Protests in the Chinese territory have rallied momentum for a proposal that scrutinises its special trade status and threatens sanctions. It’ll be hard to make the bill a priority in Congress, but President Trump could use it as leverage as he seeks a broader deal with Beijing.

Trump’s chaos theory of negotiation is a dead end

26 Aug 2019

The U.S. president says trade talks are back on with Beijing three days after escalating tariffs and calling Chinese leader Xi Jinping an “enemy.” Yet his erratic aims and tenor make it hard for counterparties to engage, as the G7 demonstrated. It’s no way to strike a good deal.

U.S. recession signal bears clear fingerprints

14 Aug 2019

A key bond-market metric flashed a downturn warning last seen in 2007, hammering stocks. Business confidence and investment are dropping, China is slowing and Germany’s output just fell. The common thread linking these is Donald Trump’s trade war. At least he’ll win lower rates.

Huawei desperately wants for friends like Facebook

14 Aug 2019

The handset maker has rolled out its own operating system in case Washington blocks its access to Google’s Android. The hope is that foreign apps will create compatible versions. Huawei is dangling big incentives for developers but financial ones may not be sufficient.

Trump trade tweets are the new Fed and jobs report

2 Aug 2019

The U.S. president on Thursday unexpectedly threatened a 10% levy on $300 bln of imports from China. He rattled markets more than the central bank’s interest-rate cut a day earlier, and put Friday’s steady jobs report in the shade. Economy-watchers must now scan Twitter.

Review: Fighting the second Cold War, lab by lab

26 Jul 2019

U.S. scientific power is a potent diplomatic weapon. Greg Whitesides's new book details how Washington used research largesse to reward friends and punish the Soviet Union. Now a similar conflict is brewing with China, a more formidable rival. This time, there can be no winner.

Japan-Korea spat returns chip price error message

25 Jul 2019

Earnings at semiconductor giant SK Hynix plunged 88%, weighed down by a worldwide glut. Yet shares rose on hopes that Tokyo's export curbs to South Korea will depress supply and lift prices. The risks of weaker demand and supply chain ruptures suggest the rally looks premature.

China has a template to remake its Belt and Road

25 Jul 2019

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has financed over $8 bln of projects while promoting high standards and responsible lending. It’s a sharp contrast to the amorphous, opaque Belt and Road. Officials looking to retool that initiative should learn from their own successes.

Taiwan spat moves Corporate America to frontline

16 Jul 2019

A $2.2 bln arms deal has led to hints of Beijing retaliating against Honeywell and others. Companies have long been caught in geopolitical crossfire, but U.S. assaults on Chinese tech firms suggest both sides could deploy such weapons more often. Boards should prepare for battle.

New trade-war ceasefire has familiar feel

29 Jun 2019

Donald Trump will restart talks with Xi Jinping and hold off imposing new tariffs on about $300 bln of Chinese exports. Huawei also got a nod at the G20 meeting. A deal may seem closer, but investors would be wise to hedge their bets. The last détente wound up falling apart.

Trump will be first to blink in China stare-down

24 Jun 2019

The U.S. president and counterpart Xi Jinping will try to restart trade talks at this week’s G20 summit. Trump may be hoping Beijing will back down, but he needs a deal more – and Xi is feeling combative. That could lead to an agreement with only a superficial U.S. victory.

Gloating over Hong Kong distracts Taipei

19 Jun 2019

President Tsai Ing-wen made an unlikely political comeback largely thanks to unrest in the financial centre that rallied anti-Beijing sentiment. But the island’s citizens are unlikely to glean any economic benefit from Hong Kong’s pain. Tsai’s reform to-do list remains too long.

Hurricane Trump may give Beijing some cover

14 Jun 2019

A torrent of rising U.S. tariffs threatens to wash out some of China’s growth. There’s far more behind the slowdown, but just as CEOs cite bad weather to obscure underlying issues, officials could use the trade war to release more stimulus or just blame Trump for missed targets.

Mexico truce is sad episode in trade reality show

10 Jun 2019

U.S. President Trump scrapped planned import taxes after Mexico pledged more action on migrant crossings – something it had already offered to do. It reinforces the illusion that levies are a potent way to tackle non-trade issues, and sets the scene for more unproductive drama.

Canada is caught in America’s trade-war crossfire

5 Jun 2019

President Donald Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexico puts at risk the new version of the three-way NAFTA trade deal. Canada’s arrest of Huawei’s CFO at America’s request upset China. And its uranium exports may now face levies, too. Ottawa can’t catch a break.

Huawei takes trade war into uncharted territory

21 May 2019

Washington's attack on one of China’s biggest companies will hurt suppliers. But the onslaught marks a more worrying turning point. Such a relentless assault on a corporate giant is virtually unprecedented; that makes everything unpredictable, including the rules of engagement.

The Exchange: Marco Polo 2.0

23 Apr 2019

Italy irked the United States by backing Beijing’s grand infrastructure plan. The country needs to improve ties with the People’s Republic to sell more wine and other exports, says Rome’s top China expert. Overcoming trade barriers will, however, require an EU team effort.

Saudi Arabia will feel Trump’s Iran slap too

22 Apr 2019

The U.S. president will fully enforce sanctions on Tehran’s oil exports. Riyadh must pump more to prevent crude prices spiking further, which it has the scope to do. But doing Trump’s bidding will rankle OPEC peers. And the administration has a track record of changing its mind.

Trump-Kim breakdown is blessing in disguise

28 Feb 2019

The U.S. president said talks ended abruptly without a nuclear deal because North Korea wanted sanctions lifted for too little in return. Seoul markets understandably shuddered. A pause, however, provides time to think through the effects of an economically stronger Pyongyang.