Diplomacy

Trump’s trade war chases its own tail

16 Jan 2020

The U.S. president is hailing his agreement with China as a boost to farmers and manufacturing workers. It is, but only because they were the losers from trade conflict. Obama showed that following the rules doesn’t work; Trump has only shown that ripping them up doesn’t either.

China trade deal gives Trump a campaign win

15 Jan 2020

Beijing pledged to buy more U.S. goods and enforce intellectual-property rights. It has fallen short on similar promises in the past, and anyway the conflict was partly whipped up by the U.S. president. Still, he can tout the new “phase one” agreement as he seeks re-election.

Saudi nuclear ambitions may further fray U.S. ties

14 Jan 2020

Riyadh could soon award tenders to build two nuclear reactors. Picking Russia’s Rosatom would heighten tensions with Washington, its traditional ally. And if the kingdom also lobbies for scope to create nuclear weapons, it would make for an awkward comparison with archfoe Iran.

Trump’s soybean dream can be crushed

8 Jan 2020

The U.S. president says China could soon buy as much as $50 bln in farm products from American farmers, including more of the oilseed. But the U.S. doesn’t have the beans, and Brazil’s currency offers a better value. The weakened U.S. agriculture trade could struggle to return.

Aramco’s war-risk snake trumps oil-price ladder

6 Jan 2020

The threat of U.S. sanctions on Iraq should boost the oil price, and the Saudi giant’s value. Yet its shares have slumped to their lowest level since trading commenced last month. That may be because the company’s operations are more likely to be a target for Iranian retaliation.

Middle East strife’s market toll is just beginning

3 Jan 2020

Oil prices rose more than 3% and global bourses fell after a U.S. air strike killed Iran’s top military leader, Qassem Soleimani. The Islamic republic may well follow up its rhetoric of revenge with action. Investors now have a real war, not just a trade one, to fret about.

Investors warming to Putin’s Russia will go cold

2 Jan 2020

Inbound retail and technology deals suggest the business climate is improving. It helps that U.S. lawmakers are too busy with impeachment proceedings and an election to enact major new sanctions. But big, if hollow, spending plans aren’t taking off. Economic torpor will persist.

Taiwan will widen U.S.-China schism in 2020

18 Dec 2019

The island's significance in supply chains stands to grow as manufacturing shifts accelerate. Anti-Beijing sentiment is also gaining traction in the United States. Both dynamics herald deeper ties between Taipei and Washington, bolstering the case for a controversial trade deal.

Trump and Xi go back to square minus-one

13 Dec 2019

The U.S. president will gradually roll back tariffs while his Chinese counterpart has agreed to buy more U.S. crops. Tit-for-tat taxes are halted, not shelved, and thorny issues like forced tech transfers linger. It’s stability, but companies are worse off than when they started.

Chile’s canceled summits are a climate allegory

30 Oct 2019

The country has pulled out of hosting the U.N.’s annual anti-global-warming confab and the APEC summit following deadly protests over inequality. It exemplifies the dilemmas governments and companies face in trying to tackle long-term problems when there are also immediate needs.

Brexit election is answer to the wrong question

30 Oct 2019

The December poll is a flawed second referendum on Britain leaving the European Union. Prime Minister Boris Johnson needs a majority to push through his deal; other parties have to set aside rivalries to stop him. As in 2017, divided voters could deliver an inconclusive result.

Saudi Arabia adds World Bank halo to FDI horns

24 Oct 2019

The kingdom is becoming a better place to do business, the global lender says. But both short and long-term data show it’s a long way from attracting the flows of foreign capital needed to make its Vision 2030 plan fly. That requires stability and wider reform. Saudi lacks both.

Johnson’s poor Brexit deal avoids worse outcome

17 Oct 2019

The UK prime minister secured an unlikely agreement to leave the European Union, but only by carving out Northern Ireland. Winning parliamentary approval for the economically costly plan will be hard. At least the chaotic exit Johnson had threatened is off the table - for now.

U.S. hits Turkey where it hurts with bank charges

16 Oct 2019

The Justice Department accused Halkbank of helping evade sanctions against Iran. A big fine would erode the state-owned lender’s already weak capital position. Ankara can act to contain the damage but a ban on shorting bank shares signals the government sees systemic risk.

Markets show Boris Johnson benefits of Brexit deal

11 Oct 2019

Sterling and stocks in UK-focused companies rose after Britain’s prime minister and his Irish peer said they had a “pathway” out of their standoff. Agreement is far from certain, as is parliamentary approval. But the advantages of avoiding a chaotic departure are crystal clear.

Boris Johnson’s Brexit long shot is short of time

3 Oct 2019

The prime minister’s long-awaited blueprint for leaving the EU has major flaws. Even if Brussels agrees to negotiate, it is far from clear that parliament would approve a deal rather than extend the Oct. 31 deadline. A final showdown may have to wait until after an election.

Hong Kong’s next phase starts with ominous bang

2 Oct 2019

Police shot a protester during clashes on Communist China’s 70th anniversary, in contrast to Xi Jinping’s message of peaceful development. Beijing’s quandary also became starker: it needs to restore calm for economic stability, but tougher intervention will fuel further unrest.

China turns 70, to forced applause

30 Sep 2019

The People's Republic marks seven decades of single-party rule on Tuesday. Critics who predicted regime failure underestimated its ability to create wealth and crush resistance. But the cowing of internal critics is a growing risk to economic resilience.

White House tests corporate corruption firewall

24 Sep 2019

From withholding Ukrainian aid to making money out of lodging visiting dignitaries, the U.S. administration has muddied the waters on acceptable behavior. Companies face tougher enforcement, which helps keep them on the straight and narrow. The gap between the two is widening.

Climate-savvy financiers are the next jobs bubble

23 Sep 2019

Banks and investment firms need people with the skills to raise their environmental game. Technology and on-the-job training can help. But for better or worse, outside hires send a stronger signal. With clients and consultants chasing the same talent, it will get expensive.