Diplomacy

China can turn the other cheek, for now

9 Jul 2020

The U.S. government slapped sanctions on Chinese officials for abuses of Muslim Uighurs, escalating tensions. Beijing may want to drop a trade deal in retaliation but patience is more useful. Xi Jinping will want threats in his back pocket following the November election.

Viewsroom: Chinese access to U.S. money, Boohoo

9 Jul 2020

Chinese companies’ access to American capital is imperiled for all sorts of reasons, says Hong Kong columnist Robyn Mak. The stingy LBO of New York-listed Sina by its CEO won’t help. Also, British fast-fashion retailer Boohoo’s not-quite dark satanic mills are in the spotlight.

China-UK feud could spill over into nuclear power

7 Jul 2020

The two countries are facing off over Huawei mobile phone kit and Hong Kong. China’s key role in new British nuclear power stations may be the next flashpoint. Unpicking the agreement would upend strategic plans on both sides. But rising tensions suggest a rethink is looming.

India’s war on China apps will have network effect

30 Jun 2020

TikTok and others from Tencent to Alibaba are among those banned on security concerns. It narrows a growth market for Chinese tech and may embolden other governments to close doors. But Beijing has plenty of ways to retaliate, including in pharmaceutical supply chains and more.

Corona Capital: U.S.-China fight, Canada downgrade

25 Jun 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Washington deploys sanctions over Hong Kong, adding to trade and Covid-19 tensions; and a double whammy of the coronavirus and low oil prices costs Canada one of its AAA ratings.

Silicon Valley VCs perform balancing act in China

18 Jun 2020

Covid-19 has boosted delivery, robotics and e-commerce technology. U.S. investors want to back Chinese startups capitalizing on those trends. But firms investing in the People’s Republic risk Washington's ire. The trick is to pair high potential ROIs with a low profile.

China-UK stock link’s glitches go beyond politics

17 Jun 2020

China Pacific Insurance is just the second Shanghai-listed company to offer shares in London, raising $2 bln. Political tension between Britain and the People’s Republic may be a factor. But lack of liquidity and trouble hanging onto foreign investors are the bigger impediment.

Economic arsenals intensify India and China clash

17 Jun 2020

Their first deadly border fight in decades is weightier given deepening commercial ties. Tension is rising there too, however, as India erects barriers to Chinese capital and looks to become a manufacturing rival. The geopolitical and financial battles will feed on each other.

Review: Trump’s fight with China will outlast him

12 Jun 2020

The U.S. president started the trade war but “Superpower Showdown” shows that anger with Beijing predates him. The account of the tariff row, which partly played out on Twitter, is familiar. Even so, it’s a warning that miscalculations on both sides can haunt long-term ties.

Travel bubbles could encase global divisions

10 Jun 2020

Australia and Norway are among the countries aiming to open borders to neighbours in similarly good health. Welcoming visitors should help slumping economies, especially in Hong Kong and Macau. The risk of narrow deals is that they reinforce the world’s balkanisation trend.

Corona Capital: Crisis loans, Jet fighting

3 Jun 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Bank customers are no longer making a dash for cash, loan drawdowns suggest. Meanwhile, a U.S. block on Chinese passenger flights suggests domestic battles haven’t dimmed President Trump’s desire to make China pay.

U.S. sanctions on China are means without an end

29 May 2020

President Trump says he may penalize PRC officials linked to a new security law for Hong Kong. The first move of its kind would escalate tensions. Yet it probably won’t deter Beijing and could spur retaliation. Unlike tariffs, there's also no clear goal beyond punishment.

Hong Kong gets thrown under “make China pay” bus

27 May 2020

America’s top diplomat Mike Pompeo says the city is no longer autonomous. That decision initially hurts the financial hub more than it does Beijing. But an escalation in unrest would set the scene for worse economic pain for China, with a U.S. election raising the stakes.

Debt hero role awaits China at rich price

21 May 2020

Beijing has deferred loan payments from poor countries, but with over $900 bln in IOUs from emerging markets, officials are hesitant to do more. China’s banking opacity deters cooperation. If it wants to seize leadership, it will have to come clean.

U.S.-China trade escalation singles out hostages

15 May 2020

Further U.S. restrictions on Huawei, along with TSMC’s decision to build a $12 billion American chip plant, heighten tensions between D.C. and Beijing. Multinationals like Qualcomm and Apple became giants by building scale to serve a global market. They are now vulnerable, too.

Sino-Australian DNA sequenced by virus-test deal

11 May 2020

Fortescue’s chairman helped broker a controversial Canberra purchase of 10 mln Covid-19 kits from Chinese genomics giant BGI. It adds to diplomatic tensions over Huawei and the pandemic’s origins. And yet over $150 bln of bilateral trade probably will endure, and maybe even grow.

Deal sabotage offers Trump potent trade weapon

10 May 2020

The U.S. president is weighing tariffs to punish Beijing for Covid-19. Thwarting regional trade deals China hopes to sign this year would sting harder, as would buttressing the TPP pact. But that would require buttering up alienated allies, which is not Trump’s forte.

Corona Capital: Primed debt, Lysol

24 Apr 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Senior creditors get “primed”; Reckitt Benckiser warns customers not to inject Lysol.

Fed easing shocks more than it awes

3 Mar 2020

U.S. central bank boss Jay Powell cut rates by half a percentage point because of economic risks from the coronavirus. Easing from the provider of global financial liquidity sets the scene for others to follow. The impact would have been bigger had G7 peers acted simultaneously.

EU offers Johnson a few crumbs in Brexit talks

3 Feb 2020

The bloc wants the United Kingdom to abide by its standards and state aid rules, and give up fishing rights, in return for a tariff-free trade deal. It’s hard to square with the prime minister’s goals. Yet Brussels has left some wiggle room. And Johnson has compromised before.