Diplomacy

Capital Calls: Chubb and Hartford, Swimming pools

22 Apr 2021

Concise views on global finance: The company led by Evan Greenberg twice raised its bid for its Connecticut rival, but so far to no avail; a blowout quarter for private-pool maker Pool Corp points to buoyant wealth and spending trends, but only for some.

Capital Calls: SXSW

19 Apr 2021

Concise views on global finance: Rolling Stone publisher Penske Media is taking a 50% stake in hipster arts festival South By Southwest.

U.S. and Japan can take their time on China

15 Apr 2021

Yoshihide Suga’s visit to D.C., Joe Biden's first in-person confab, is about countering the People's Republic. It’s still politically thorny for the U.S. to rejoin the transpacific trade pact. Once Covid is past, the timing could be better – especially if other allies also join.

Hong Kong-on-Thames lies in not-too-distant future

13 Apr 2021

Real estate tycoons from the former British colony are rushing to build new homes in London. They appeal to Hong Kong residents taking up UK visas, and offer a better return on investment than at home. It’s a bold bet on the capital’s pandemic-afflicted property market.

Russia has defences against U.S. sabre-rattling

25 Mar 2021

Given the U.S. president reckons his Russian counterpart is a “killer”, new sanctions on Russian government debt are possible. Jumpy prices forced Moscow to cancel a bond auction. But with a trade surplus and low external debt, Kremlin finances will hold up.

New OECD head may be West’s next anti-China weapon

23 Mar 2021

Australia’s Mathias Cormann will be the organisation’s next boss. His country is no stranger to trade disputes with Beijing. Look for the policy wonks he will lead to furnish evidence of competition-distorting practices that could help Uncle Sam and its partners push for change.

China’s U.S. backlash more troubling than word war

19 Mar 2021

A meeting Thursday between the global giants featured grandstanding that played to domestic audiences. But now Beijing is restricting the use of Tesla vehicles due to national security concerns. That payback hurts America more and is an ominous sign for Apple and others.

India has an opportunity to mend U.S. trade ties

4 Mar 2021

President Joe Biden’s aides reviewing India’s loss of preferential trade may face similar spats on technology and medical devices as their predecessors. Patience is waning though. Small gives by Prime Minister Narendra Modi could boost confidence and help to avoid more tariffs.

Biden finds Mohammed bin Salman is too big to nail

2 Mar 2021

The American president has taken heat for inaction over Saudi Arabia’s crown prince, despite judging him responsible for journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s murder. But MbS’ influence has metastasized across global finance. The fallout from sanctioning him would be more than diplomatic.

Corona Capital: Food delivery, Video games

25 Jan 2021

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Hedge fund Tiger Global gets a taste for food-delivery investments; and Jagex, developer of fantasy game “RuneScape,” is flipped to Carlyle less than a year after its last sale.

NYSE zigzag symbolizes chaotic China crackdown

6 Jan 2021

The U.S. exchange flip-flopped again and will delist three PRC telcos after all. Meanwhile a White House ban on Alipay and other apps may take effect only after the current occupant leaves. And TikTok remains in limbo. Effective curbs on Beijing take more than tongue-lashings.

Saudi gets a partial brand detox with Qatar thaw

6 Jan 2021

Ending Riyadh’s three-year embargo with Doha gives both states a minor economic boost. It also removes one of U.S. President-elect Joe Biden’s Saudi-related headaches. But its main benefit could be to reduce the extent to which foreign investors see the kingdom as kryptonite.

Christmas Eve Brexit deal is second-worst outcome

24 Dec 2020

The UK’s last-gasp agreement with the European Union avoids painful tariffs and a dangerous rupture in relations. Yet trade flows remain hostage to diverging standards. While the costs of exiting the single market will now become clear, the benefits of independence remain vague.

Corona Capital: Vaccine dibs

21 Dec 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Vaccine prioritization is about to get competitive.

Corona Capital: Cyber Friday and Monday

30 Nov 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Online holiday shopping hits new records.

TikTok mess is a trap for America’s next president

11 Nov 2020

A deadline for Chinese owner ByteDance to sell the app’s U.S. business by Nov. 12 may not be binding after Donald Trump lost the election. But the big question remains: what to do with an internet firm that’s deemed a security risk? Joe Biden may not find it any easier to answer.

WTO is early test of Joe Biden’s multilateralism

9 Nov 2020

The president-elect approaches diplomacy very differently to Donald Trump. The world trade body’s snarled-up leadership race is a chance to show that. But American criticisms of global commerce rules and China were bipartisan. Biden will seek reform but do it more collegially.

Remember TikTok? Send an indulgence to deal gods

28 Oct 2020

The Chinese-backed video platform is waiting for a U.S. court ruling, Trump administration approval, and then Beijing has to have a word. That’s all before integration with Oracle and Walmart even starts. With the U.S. election forthcoming, TikTok is stuck in M&A purgatory.

Corona Capital: U.S. state budget woes

20 Oct 2020

Concise views on the pandemic’s corporate and financial fallout: Some conservative U.S. states are hurting as much as liberal New York.

Trump and China: this time it’s personal

2 Oct 2020

A Covid-19 diagnosis for the U.S. president turns the People’s Republic from a public enemy to a private one. Trump has already compared the pandemic to Pearl Harbor. A scorched earth policy on issues from trade and TikTok to Taiwan and the national debt has become more likely.