Diplomacy

Gulf’s delicate US-China balance can easily flip

15 May 2025

Saudi and the UAE’s reliance on Silicon Valley’s talents and tech makes it easier to adhere to Washington's new Huawei chip curbs. But Beijing remains a big trading customer and is making headway in AI. The Gulf states may be in the West's camp, but they may not stay there.

Pauses, tweaks and can-kicking are new trade norms

15 May 2025

The US inked a deal with the UK and agreed to freeze triple-digit tariffs on China. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain what these agreements reveal about the Trump administration’s negotiating hand, and what trade is likely to look like in the future.

Why US-China decoupling will be hard to reverse

6 May 2025

Trade between the two economies is collapsing. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Christopher Beddor of Gavekal explains where relations could be repaired, where they could deteriorate further, and why Washington and Beijing may tacitly agree on the need to pull apart.

China’s automakers will lead a race to the bottom

30 Apr 2025

BYD, Geely and SAIC were already locked out of the US, but they will nonetheless feel the squeeze of Donald Trump’s auto tariffs because rivals will join the race to grab market share elsewhere. It’s a side effect that will hurt both Detroit and the People’s Republic.

CK Hutch ports sale can be good for Beijing too

28 Apr 2025

Beijing has warned the Hong Kong firm against bypassing its antitrust probe on the $23 bln disposal to a BlackRock-led group. Officials may want to use the assets as leverage in US trade talks. Poor timing aside, China has multiple reasons to like this deal and the buyers.

Japan highlights Trump’s limited tariffs leverage

24 Apr 2025

A quick deal with Tokyo was key to the US president’s unrealistic drive for trade pacts with 75 countries by July. But Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has put broader national interest over lower levies. That and market reactions to Trump’s agenda can embolden others to push back.

US-China trade deal would be tricky and tenuous

24 Apr 2025

Investors hope that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can cut their triple-digit levies. But a 2020 agreement between the two failed, complicating a repeat. The sheer size of the $295 bln US deficit, and fear of China’s tech ambitions, mean tariffs and sanctions may persist.

Shein is next litmus test for India-China ties

22 Apr 2025

Beijing’s desire to keep supply chains in the People’s Republic puts the fast fashion retailer’s partnership with Reliance in focus. The fate of the alliance will test how far President Xi Jinping is willing to take the "dragon-elephant tango” as Sino-American ties worsen.

China’s US bond holdings are going nowhere fast

17 Apr 2025

The threat of Beijing dumping its $1.1 trln in Treasuries to gain leverage in trade talks or punish Trump has investors fretting. But the need for dollar reserves to manage the yuan means Chinese exposure to American debt will inhibit this part of the duo's financial decoupling.

US-China decoupling is crossing a Rubicon

16 Apr 2025

Sino-American relations were in slow decline. President Donald Trump’s trade war, and counterpart Xi Jinping's pledge to fight back, sets the stage for a messy divorce. A look at finance, investment, people and geopolitics show substantial ties vulnerable to fracture.

Small countries sit at nexus of tariff trade-offs

15 Apr 2025

The US put a 10% levy on Singapore and Australia despite having a goods surplus and strong military ties with them. Negotiating on the duty looks hard. But diversifying exports away from both states' top market, China, which Trump wants to squeeze, makes more sense than ever.

China may find Southeast Asia’s demands pile up

14 Apr 2025

On his tour of the region, President Xi Jinping will try to shore up a $982 bln trade relationship. Countries like Vietnam, who may soon be forced to side with either Washington or Beijing, can afford to ask their neighbour for foreign investment, market access and more.

Tariffs will force supply chains out of black box

14 Apr 2025

The US is pressing pause on tariffs for electronics, but the reprieve may be brief. Its trade war and national security concerns will force greater transparency from companies like Lenovo, the world's biggest PC maker, and peers who disclose few details on where goods are made.

Time for the rest of the West to club together

13 Apr 2025

Europe, Japan and Canada can no longer rely on the United States. They need to cut their dependency on it while not becoming reliant on China. That means weaning themselves off the dollar, cooperating in trade and defence, and reaching out to emerging economies like India.

Chinese stocks have big role to play in trade war

10 Apr 2025

Compared to global markets, Chinese indexes have been relatively stable. Official intervention is one reason. Investors betting on fiscal stimulus is another. The resilience matters to Beijing: it projects confidence to withstand US tariffs and can also spur consumption.

US-China trade clash risks all-out financial war

10 Apr 2025

Tit-for-tat tariffs torch a $600 bln bilateral relationship yet further levies will have diminishing sting. There are signs more escalation could lead to a dangerous weaponisation of finance. But for all the bluster, Trump's pause on other countries provides some breathing room.

Chipmaking giants face triple tariff hit

9 Apr 2025

Semiconductors are exempt from Washington's levies, but that may not last. The blow to global demand for phones and other electronic items also will hurt $640 bln TSMC, Samsung and peers. Meanwhile, surging import costs will disrupt their bold plans to set up factories in the US.

China will struggle to deal with its overcapacity

8 Apr 2025

Exports will be squashed with or without the US threat of an extra 50% tariff. Chinese consumers cannot absorb the slack. If Beijing responds by lowering trade barriers with the rest of the world, its domestic problem will be worse. The case for boosting fiscal spending is solid.

India’s trade deal frenzy offers a Trump hedge

8 Apr 2025

The world's fifth-largest economy is negotiating with the EU and UK, and it could enter a pact with a China-backed bloc too. The outreach will protect India from future trade wars, even though it may emerge as a top beneficiary from the current US tariff onslaught.

Now is the time for a bold new UK-EU relationship

7 Apr 2025

As the US strains transatlantic ties, the United Kingdom and European Union have much to gain from joining forces. A security pact spanning economics, energy, the environment, tech and finance - as well as defence - would match the occasion. The main obstacle is lack of vision.