Diplomacy

EU joint debt will reappear despite French squalls

18 Dec 2024

Covid-19 saw the European Union ditch its qualms about issuing bonds backed by the 27-state bloc. Ukraine could spur a similar leap forward. France’s political turmoil is a problem, but Russian aggression and US inaction could force member states to club together to fund defence.

Oil will aid rather than hinder Trump-MbS bromance

16 Dec 2024

Both the US president-elect and the Saudi crown prince want to pump more crude in 2025. Yet US drillers aren’t certain to do so. And Mohammed bin Salman may be able to extract a quid pro quo in return for deploying spare oil capacity should Donald Trump crack down on Iran.

US-China tech war will hold Asian allies hostage

16 Dec 2024

Washington’s curbs on semiconductors and other goods are starting to elicit a response from the People’s Republic. New export control rules offer a way for Beijing to retaliate. Its leverage over giants like Japan’s Toyota or South Korea’s SK Hynix make them prime targets.

South Korea curveball adds new 2025 risks

4 Dec 2024

Fallout from Great Power tensions tends to dominate the minds of political and financial leaders. So the abortive coup in the $2 trln economy may seem just a domestic issue. But ructions within the major US ally and chipmaking hub may yet reverberate in Asia and beyond.

Oil’s geopolitical risk premium is still there

27 Nov 2024

Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have struck a peace deal brokered by the US and France. In theory, a calmer Middle East plus weaker demand forecasts should prompt a tangible slide in the price of crude. But a tougher US policy on Iran merits an ongoing risk premium.

Hong Kong regains some lustre amid China’s gloom

22 Nov 2024

Top mainland officials made a rare appearance alongside CEOs like David Solomon at a conference in the city. It's a sign Beijing will lean on Hong Kong more to tap global capital and navigate looming US tariffs. Potential market reforms could benefit the finance hub, too.

Friendshoring is set to become friendshoving

19 Nov 2024

India benefits from firms like Apple moving production beyond China. Under Trump, the country may get whacked by reciprocal US tariffs, dinged for its trade surplus and for a tightly managed currency. The flaws in rerouting supply chains are about to become apparent.

The power and peril of American economic warfare

12 Nov 2024

Successive US presidents have wielded sanctions and export controls against rival nations. Donald Trump promises further escalation. In this episode of the Big View podcast, political scientist Henry Farrell explains how weaponizing finance and technology can be self-defeating.

Trump’s ‘America First’ revival could backfire

11 Nov 2024

The returning president’s nakedly transactional approach to foreign policy and trade will further erode global principles and make the United States a less reliable ally. Its friends in Europe and Asia will be minded to hedge their bets, ultimately benefiting China and Russia.

Trump will speed China’s journey to self-reliance

8 Nov 2024

Consumption's 59% share of GDP is rising on weak investment. Tariffs threatened by the US president-elect will accelerate the shift to domestic demand. Premier Xi Jinping desires a China less dependent on foreign markets. He may get one, though more abruptly than he envisioned.

Taiwan’s silicon shield wants for reinforcement

7 Nov 2024

Taipei’s exports to the US are surging thanks to chip giant TSMC, but Donald Trump's threatened tariffs would undermine those. How far the president-elect would go to protect the island from Beijing, especially if trade weakens, is unclear. It's time to boost spending on defence.

China wields weak hand in Trump’s Trade War II

7 Nov 2024

The country would suffer a severe blow if the self-styled ‘Tariff Man’ imposes a 60% US levy on Chinese goods. Trade tensions will be harder to de-escalate this time, and Beijing’s reliance on exports to offset slowing GDP growth leaves the $18 trln economy highly vulnerable.

China-India ties will settle into a new normal

23 Oct 2024

A deal on patrolling their disputed frontier is a welcome development. Leaders Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi will meet too. There's little chance of going back to the status quo of business ties four years ago, however. India will keep entry barriers for Chinese companies high.

China’s woes make Plaza Accord 2.0 less outlandish

16 Oct 2024

If Donald Trump becomes US President, he wants a weak dollar and taxes on Chinese imports. He may use the threat of tariffs to get Beijing to boost the yuan, an echo of the 1985 Plaza Accord. A strong currency hurts growth, but a trade war could be worse for President Xi Jinping.

India’s moment is hurt by interference label

15 Oct 2024

New Delhi called Ottawa linking its agents to homicides "preposterous" as the countries expelled each other's diplomats. A similar US case has higher stakes. If the saga shunts perceptions of India into the same bucket as China, its status as a land of opportunity will suffer.

Old theories offer new insight into global rivalry

14 Oct 2024

The geographer Halfold Mackinder in 1904 proposed that future strife would revolve around control of Eurasia. Though the modern world is very different, it’s one way to understand conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the showdown between the United States and China.

How US foreign policy could produce better results

30 Sep 2024

With conflict raging in Lebanon, Gaza and Ukraine, it is easy to paint pessimistic scenarios for the globe. But there is a more positive outcome where the United States works with other countries to solve common problems. Kamala Harris might just do that if she becomes president.

The European Union risks a sad, bad future

16 Sep 2024

The EU economy is stagnating, while Russia, China and even the United States may bully the bloc. There are potential fixes, as former European Central Bank boss Mario Draghi set out last week. But the EU and its members are currently in no position to implement them.

Telegram’s route to profitability looks dubious

3 Sep 2024

The troubled app’s CEO Pavel Durov runs a lossmaking enterprise. The easiest path to profitability is to echo Facebook, but content moderation costs would further hit Telegram’s finances. The main alternative is to be a messaging app, but WhatsApp implies that’s hard to monetise.

Shipping rates yet to signal a calmer Middle East

22 Aug 2024

The US is pushing hard for an Israel-Hamas peace deal. But shipping executives expect rates to stay high this year as vessels avoid the Red Sea. While only a rough gauge of regional tensions, the freight experts may be more accurate forecasters than ceasefire optimists.