Diplomacy

US auto tariffs zoom past economic speed limit

27 Mar 2025

President Trump unveiled 25% levies on cars and parts, endangering an interconnected, border-hopping supply chain. At maybe $75 bln or more, the cost could wreck industry profit. Cars are strategically valuable, and the US industry faces threats, but this is too much, too fast.

Cross-border home renovation deal is full of gaps

24 Mar 2025

On paper, Chicago-based decks and railings maker Azek complements its buyer, Aussie- and NYSE-listed cladding manufacturer James Hardie. But cost cuts don't cover the 41% premium on the $9bln deal and other synergies look dubious, not least as tariffs are set to hit US consumers.

China Cosco may be shipping war’s first casualty

24 Mar 2025

The world's top shipping group doubled 2024 earnings but Washington's proposed docking fees on China-linked vessels and tariff salvo will dent demand for Cosco services. Rival CK Hutch's $23 bln ports sale also suggests trade will reroute to Western peers. It’s a perfect storm.

Ports deal puts China’s investment case to test

21 Mar 2025

Beijing’s displeasure with CK Hutchison’s $23 bln sale of its docks business to BlackRock comes just as overseas money managers' confidence in the People's Republic was returning. Defending geopolitical interests while wooing foreign capital will require a delicate balancing act.

UK will struggle to sit out Trump’s tariff war

18 Mar 2025

Prime Minister Keir Starmer has eschewed Brussels-style retaliation after the president put import levies on steel. That’s logical, but neutrality will get harder as EU-US tensions rise. His best hope is that tariff damage forces a US U-turn before he has to side with Europe.

China stocks rally is a worrying flight to safety

18 Mar 2025

Hong Kong's benchmark is up a quarter this year, trouncing a 1.6% gain in the mainland. Part of that is a bet on Beijing's pro-AI policies which will benefit the city's tech stocks like Alibaba. Onshore investors are also hedging a potential tariff-driven drop for the yuan.

CK Hutchison is stuck as a geopolitical pawn

17 Mar 2025

The Li clan hoped to escape Washington’s ire over Panama and unlock value by agreeing a $23 bln ports sale to BlackRock. China is pushing back. Whether Beijing can block the deal or not, the Hong Kong conglomerate’s future is for now largely out of executives’ hands.

Panama deal puts CK Hutchison in a sea change

6 Mar 2025

How the Hong Kong conglomerate uses the $19 bln in proceeds from the sale of its global ports will be a key test for Chair Victor Li. His flagship group has been deleveraging and increasing payouts. If geopolitics don't get in the way, the Li empire is overdue a big purchase.

Trump will splinter world’s ‘China plus one’ plans

6 Mar 2025

The US president is moving aggressively against China’s exports, the economic pillar of its strategic adversary, by dangling secondary sanctions on third countries. It heralds a push towards a cleaner segregation of US-centric supply chains from those for the rest of the world.

Europe will struggle to slip US economic chokehold

5 Mar 2025

The continent relies on its erstwhile ally for defence, but also for finance, technology and energy. With Donald Trump’s return, those tight links have turned into vulnerabilities. Severing them is hard to imagine. The best Europe can do for now is credibly threaten retaliation.

White House leans into an economic downturn

4 Mar 2025

Threats are now reality as 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico take effect and double to 20% for China. US growth forecasts are already sinking with import surges only partly to blame: households are spending less as inflation fears spike. Policy is subduing all-important consumers.

Europe has money but few weapons for Ukraine

4 Mar 2025

US President Donald Trump has paused his country’s military support for Ukraine. Europe has the means to make up for it and plans to spend an extra $340 bln a year on its defence. But Kyiv still needs American weapons, which may force Europe to buy directly from the US.

China’s only plan for Trump is plan for the worst

28 Feb 2025

The US president says he'll apply a new 10% tariff to its rival's exports next week as Beijing's annual policy meetings kick off. Chinese officials are due to set growth and stimulus targets. These will need to be flexible and vague to absorb rapidly escalating external shocks.

Deficit will push Hong Kong closer to the mainland

25 Feb 2025

The Asian hub's fiscal reserve has dropped 40% since 2020 due to shrinking revenue from land and property sales. The city is ramping up borrowing in response. China is a natural buyer of the debt, allowing Beijing to diversify its reserves and protect its gateway to the world.

Why China may struggle to unlock the power of AI

25 Feb 2025

Its fortunes as a great power will be shaped in part by the technology. Yet translating wins by innovators like DeepSeek and others into wider gains for the $18 trln economy will be challenged not just by the United States but also by Beijing’s own desire to maintain control.

Elon Musk is not India’s ideal foreign investor

20 Feb 2025

The country's high import levies have failed to get the Tesla boss to make his vehicles locally. New Delhi may be considering concessions and exemptions to entice him instead. But Donald Trump's trade wars leave India with less leverage to wrangle coveted factory jobs from Musk.

Trump reciprocal tariffs are key test of EU unity

19 Feb 2025

The president’s threat to match foreigners’ US levies may mean he targets individual European Union member states. The EU’s common approach to trade complicates retaliation. If some countries in the bloc stop others from fighting back, it could ramp up internal strife.

Ukraine peace talks are Europe’s moment of truth

17 Feb 2025

Since World War Two ended, the continent has resisted Russia by relying on its big brother in the United States. But now it faces pressure from Washington as well as from Moscow. Standing up to both while standing by Kyiv will depend on money, determination, and political unity.

China can steal a march on US tariff uncertainties

14 Feb 2025

Donald Trump’s trade war will take weeks or months to shape up. Rather than waiting for the dust to settle on the $600 bln relationship, rolling out bold stimulus to tackle domestic challenges is Beijing’s best course. A strong economy will shore up China's negotiating position.

Ukraine ‘peace dividend’ will be paid by Europe

13 Feb 2025

President Donald Trump’s talks with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin may end Moscow’s war. For the EU this won’t mean lower defence spending. The likely end of the US security blanket, and an emboldened Russia, will force Europeans to accelerate their military overhaul.