Debt

ECB’s crisis weapon pledge is vague and late

15 Jun 2022

The European Central Bank will “accelerate” work on a new tool to control soaring bond yields from weak sovereigns. The lack of detail reflects divisions within the bank on when and how to use such a programme. It’s an invitation to markets to test the ECB’s resolve yet again.

Central banks still have space to fight inflation

15 Jun 2022

Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde are tightening monetary policy to try to control soaring prices. Previous shocks have prompted the Fed and ECB chiefs to pause or loosen again. Despite plunging equity prices this time, calmer credit markets imply the “Fed Put” is far off.

Italian banks face return of sovereign embrace

14 Jun 2022

A decade ago, soaring government bond yields threatened to drag down domestic lenders. Today, banks have shrunk state debt to less than 7% of total assets, while cutting dud loans and building capital buffers. As the ECB retreats, the pressure to load up again will increase.

Chinese property crisis drives derivative rethink

7 Jun 2022

Beijing has helped some private developers with bond issues by letting them offer protection via tools like credit risk mitigation warrants. So far it’s symbolic and over-reliant on reluctant state banks. If private money can be wooed, however, the market could finally take off.

Tech convertible boom was a tax on the gullible

3 Jun 2022

Fast-growing firms including Affirm, DraftKings and MicroStrategy issued $100 bln of zero-coupon convertible debt over the past couple of years. Holders get no interest, taking instead an option that’s now in many cases near worthless. Some may not even recoup their principal.

China’s real estate renovation is too cosmetic

26 May 2022

The central bank joined wider efforts to help the property sector by cutting five-year lending rates to 4.45%. Banks remain sceptical of developers however, and bonds are trading at distressed prices. Lack of faith in the industry’s foundations make it harder to build a recovery.

Debt-market chaos makes bank deposits great again

24 May 2022

Rising rates and volatility are a problem for fintech upstarts, like Affirm, which rely on wholesale markets to fund loans. Old-school lenders, flush with cheaper deposits, don’t face the same funding pressure. It gives banks a window to strike back.

Egypt’s hunger pangs are like 2011, but worse

19 May 2022

A decade ago the soaring cost of bread helped unseat Cairo’s long-term ruler, Hosni Mubarak. In 2022 food prices are rising faster, and Egypt’s population and debt are bigger. The more prices rise, the trickier the tradeoff between enraging financial and domestic constituencies.

Guest view: Blue finance can save Asia’s oceans

13 May 2022

The region accounts for over 80% of plastic waste like bags and bottles that litter the world’s seas, damaging wildlife, the climate and livelihoods. IFC boss Makhtar Diop explains how a new debt market can help the cleanup by closing a $150 bln-a-year funding gap.

UK grocer buyout creates bond market indigestion

29 Apr 2022

Banks led by Goldman and BNP Paribas that funded CD&R’s $9 bln Morrisons buyout have sold a chunk of the debt at a big discount. Inflation and a supermarket price war mean bondholders can now name their price. The debt hangover may make other deals trickier.

Spendthrift Macron will hit harsh fiscal reality

21 Apr 2022

The French president must attract left-leaning voters to win a second term, and then a parliamentary majority. But financing pledges, like big investments in green energy, will mean choosing between higher taxes and worsening public debt levels. He’s likely to opt for the latter.

Fed’s 5-year balance sheet plan may be interrupted

7 Apr 2022

The U.S. central bank aims to reduce its $9 trln of assets by $95 bln a month. At that pace, even already fat pre-pandemic levels might not be reached until early 2027. That's a long time in economics, and in politics. Like the last attempt to slim down, it risks being thwarted.

New Evergrande crisis may cue tougher intervention

24 Mar 2022

The property developer was largely left alone to fix its financial mess. The discovery of misused funds at a subsidiary heightens the risk offshore investors head to the courts. That makes it more likely China steps in. Its handling of defunct conglomerate HNA could be a guide.

Private credit funds take page from start-up book

23 Mar 2022

Lending to deals like Thoma Bravo’s $11 bln purchase of Anaplan – which has no operating cash flow – is toxic for big banks. But private credit funds are signing up. They may be trying to disrupt lending markets while gaining clients. That sounds a lot like a risky tech model.

LBO shops offering credit get best of both worlds

22 Mar 2022

Buyout firms have $3.4 trln of dry powder. With markets upended and regulatory uncertainty, there’s no better time to spend it. But lenders have suddenly shut their purses. Private equity shops with those resources, like Blackstone and Apollo, can play two sides of every deal.

China’s property rebound is unstable

22 Mar 2022

Homebuilder stocks have resurged on Beijing’s promises to stabilise the sector and the shelving of a real estate tax. House prices in some top cities are recovering. But the bond market is uneasy and defaults continue. Absent more policy support, investor relief is premature.

Credit firms spare Americans one false symptom

18 Mar 2022

Consumers have an estimated $88 bln of medical debt. Three big agencies will remove most such bills from their records. Smallish items that go unpaid for a while are often more about a messed-up health system than people’s ability to pay. It’s a small victory for common sense.

Russian debt coin toss will get harder to call

8 Mar 2022

Gazprom and Rosneft are repaying bonds despite fears Moscow may renege on its own debt. The depressed prices of Russian corporate debt mean investors who rightly bet on repayment can double their money. Yet rising tensions and murky workouts mean the trade will get riskier.

Western curbs give Moscow rational default card

3 Mar 2022

Sanctions mean President Vladimir Putin has reason not to repay at least some of his $200 bln of debt, and less fear of the consequences. That would leave creditors stuck for years, with little hope of a recovery. Even depressed prices of Russian bonds may prove optimistic.

ECB has central banking’s hardest juggling act

15 Feb 2022

President Christine Lagarde faces a less acute inflation problem than U.S. or UK peers. But she’ll have to raise interest rates to curb price pressures while ensuring bond yield gaps between euro zone nations don’t widen to worrying levels. The two goals may become incompatible.