Debt

How Trump’s tariff turmoil scarred global markets

17 Apr 2025

Stocks and government bonds have steadied following dramatic falls triggered by the US president’s trade war. But the policy may yet do lasting damage. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists examine the possible long-term effects on US Treasuries and the dollar.

Tariff chaos leaves its mark on US debt costs

14 Apr 2025

Ten-year Treasury bonds yield over 4.4%, up from less than 4% barely a week ago. Forced selling and liquidity woes don’t help, but overseas investors also appear to be rethinking their exposure to the US. That’s a scary prospect for Uncle Sam as trade uncertainty drags on growth.

The debit and credit of the private lending boom

11 Mar 2025

Loans supplied by funds have swelled to some $2 trln, disrupting regular banks. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Huw van Steenis of Oliver Wyman explores the drivers of the industry’s rapid growth, how much bigger it could get, and what risks it might be storing up.

China’s bank recap exposes lenders’ dilemma

5 Mar 2025

The weakest Big Five lender, $70 bln BoCom, may be the first to get a capital injection from the state. Beijing will want it to spur lending to help drive economic growth. But with more earnings-sapping rate cuts likely, BoCom would be better off keeping any new powder dry.

Altice’s Patrick Drahi limps on from debt disaster

26 Feb 2025

The tycoon struck a deal to slash his French telco’s 21 bln euro debt pile. While impairing bondholders, the agreement leaves Drahi in control and with some value, reversing the capital structure. The risk is that lenders demand even more to lend to the rest of his global empire.

Deficit will push Hong Kong closer to the mainland

25 Feb 2025

The Asian hub's fiscal reserve has dropped 40% since 2020 due to shrinking revenue from land and property sales. The city is ramping up borrowing in response. China is a natural buyer of the debt, allowing Beijing to diversify its reserves and protect its gateway to the world.

Buyout firms’ equity-debt double act is creaking

14 Feb 2025

Groups such as Blackstone and Apollo spent trillions of dollars buying companies when interest rates were low. They also provided loans to buyouts. As borrowing costs have risen, tensions between the two are mounting. Private credit’s future growth will depend on other borrowers.

Bond bulls put Beijing on the horns of a dilemma

28 Jan 2025

The relentless plunge in yields allows China to issue debt inexpensively to stimulate its $18 trln economy, but it also reinforces expectations of slow GDP growth, a weak yuan and the People’s Republic as a low-interest-rate country. Managing that tension is getting riskier.

Bond chaos induces headaches worldwide

16 Jan 2025

Rising yields on long-term US debt, now around 5% despite the Fed’s cuts, are having ripple effects across the globe. Leaders in Britain and beyond may be forced to rethink their policies. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain the potential pain in store.

Country Garden’s debt fix is a bet against Beijing

10 Jan 2025

The property developer, once China’s largest by sales, is offering a 90% haircut as an option to restructure $16 bln of offshore bonds. Acceptance would imply creditors have given up hope that the government is about to put more substantive policies in place to boost home prices.

Credit markets’ calm veneer will crack

26 Dec 2024

Rates are falling, and so too are corporate defaults. Yet firms like Altice France, with $25 bln of borrowings, will still have to grapple with high funding costs. Losses on opaque private-credit loans will mount. Wafer-thin returns for risky debt leave little room for error.

Donald Trump will meet his match in bond markets

18 Dec 2024

The president-elect’s bullying and bluster may steamroll any political resistance to tax cuts and tariff hikes. Like many world leaders before him, though, he’s about to feel the punch that debt buyers pack. They’ll beat back an inflationary agenda that imperils US finances.

Why private credit is shrinking as it booms

17 Dec 2024

Non-bank lenders, sitting atop $2 trln in assets, keep taking more of the market away from the traditional titans of Wall Street. Yet the industry is now rapidly consolidating. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Marc Lipschultz, co-CEO of Blue Owl Capital, explains why.

French political stalemate threatens its economy

12 Dec 2024

The country is without a prime minister after Michel Barnier lost a no-confidence vote. That will make it hard to cut the large budget deficit. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why a long crisis would deter foreign investors and damage France’s growth.

George Soros’ 1980s US debt warning echoes today

8 Nov 2024

The hedgie said in 1986 that booming stocks belied shaky government finances. That’s true now, and not just in the United States. Britain and France are also battling a fiscal trilemma, where states can’t simultaneously have high spending, low taxes and financial stability.

China consumer is epitome of delayed gratification

4 Nov 2024

Beijing says it wants to boost consumption’s 53% share of GDP as investment-led growth fades. Yet central planning is hard to square with free-spirited spending. Rebalancing without a period of stagnation is not easy. Recent policies also suggest the old model is hard to ditch.

Thames debt rejig is oddly good deal for creditors

25 Oct 2024

The ailing UK water utility wants bondholders to defer repayments and give it an extra 3 bln pounds. Investors defer a messy default now and earn an equity-like return on the new money. And they can hope that PM Keir Starmer will agree to price rises, lowering future losses.

Deutsche hits bad-debt snag on road to growth

23 Oct 2024

The German lender returned to profit in the third quarter but also said its full-year loan-loss provision would jump to 1.8 bln euros. It’s the second quarter in which CEO Christian Sewing has surprised investors on bad debt. The shock distracts from investment-banking growth.

China pins stimulus on money merry-go-round

23 Oct 2024

Beijing plans to swap some of its $9 trln of local government debt into bonds with full, rather than implicit, state backing. The rejig will lower rates of interest, lengthen maturities and allow provinces to issue more debt to banks. That will juice spending for a while.

Italy has more to gain from France’s pain

14 Oct 2024

Rome borrowing costs are converging with Paris. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s stable government is pledging to contain its deficit and pushing through reforms, at a time when its peer is in turmoil. To press home the advantage, though, Meloni will need to take bolder action.