Currency

Rouble’s strength is sign of Russia’s weakness

6 Apr 2022

The Russian currency has appreciated 70% against the dollar since early March. Capital controls, 20% interest rates, and forced conversion of export revenues have been enough to push it up in very thin trading volumes. The rebound is a sign of economic woes, not resilience.

EU’s Ukraine currency fix is a problem best shared

29 Mar 2022

The ECB wants the European Union to guarantee potential losses when Ukrainians fleeing the war change their currency into euros. A rival plan would leave this up to national governments. The pooled scheme is much more likely to give Ukrainians hope in the value of the hryvnia.

Bank of Japan stumbles into defensive minefield

29 Mar 2022

War, Covid-19 and an aggressive-looking Fed are conspiring against Governor Kuroda’s ultra-loose policy. The yen is plunging and government bond yields are up despite BOJ efforts. There’s no easy solution, but doing nothing is risky too.

Russia’s gold reserves buy Putin a few options

28 Mar 2022

The Russian leader has a $140 bln stash of the yellow metal. Using it, however, can require shell companies and middlemen. Putin’s regime may have some experience helping Venezuela turn bullion into euros. Though U.S. prosecutors will give chase, the gold trail is hard to follow.

Aramco health adds spice to Saudi’s yuan dilemma

21 Mar 2022

Riyadh’s $2.3 trln oil giant is looking to hike output. If the kingdom starts to price some crude sales in yuan instead of dollars, higher Chinese exports could increase its stocks of renminbi. That could focus Saudi minds on whether to hitch its future to Beijing or Washington.

Russia kicks default drama into future

17 Mar 2022

Moscow says it sent $117 mln due in bond interest payments. While sanctions made the decision painful, not paying its dues or offering roubles instead of dollars would have meant years of legal disputes and made the economy even more dependent on oil. That may still happen.

Bitcoin’s true colours shine in stampede to safety

23 Feb 2022

The cryptocurrency fell 5% as conflict in Ukraine flared, undermining the case for it to be a gold-like refuge. Even earlier, it moved too closely in synch with equities to be much use as a hedge. It comes into its own, however, as an amplifier of ups and downs in riskier assets.

Turkey’s lira prop-up plan is dangerous

21 Dec 2021

President Tayyip Erdogan is guaranteeing deposits against local currency drops. It’s tacit admission Turkey’s banks aren’t immune to fallout from his odd views on inflation and interest rates. Details are fuzzy but putting taxpayers on the hook for the lira is asking for trouble.

Switzerland has rich-world foreign reserve problem

15 Dec 2021

After years of intervening to curb franc strength, the central bank has amassed $1 trillion in foreign currency investments. A group of academics suggests converting this into a sovereign wealth fund but that would bring its own worries. Wisely investing so much money isn’t easy.

Capital Calls: Volkswagen, Turkey

1 Dec 2021

Concise views on global finance: The German carmaker may take mining stakes to secure electric-vehicle raw materials, echoing Henry Ford, the U.S. production-line pioneer; the Turkish central bank is resorting to old tricks to prop up the lira but it’s an unsustainable strategy.

Capital Calls: Wise, Swedish oil

30 Nov 2021

Concise views on global finance: The 8 bln pound money-changer raised its revenue targets; $10 bln Swedish oil company Lundin Energy may be considering M&A options.

BBVA’s Turkey M&A logic beats currency chaos

24 Nov 2021

Just before the lira’s plunge, the Spanish bank offered to buy the 50% it doesn’t own of local lender Garanti. The crisis will push up bad debt and squeeze lending margins. But the target’s low valuation and the inefficiency of only owning half give BBVA reason enough to proceed.

Voters are last brake on Turkey’s lunatic express

19 Nov 2021

Bullied by President Tayyip Erdogan, the central bank slashed borrowing costs to 15%. Fearing runaway inflation, the lira plunged to record lows. With few other checks on a leader at war with interest rates, 2023 elections may be Turks’ best hope of restoring monetary sanity.

FX risks dilute appeal of Heineken’s Africa tipple

15 Nov 2021

The Dutch brewer is buying South Africa’s Distell for $3 bln and taking over Namibia Breweries. With modest cost savings, CEO Dolf van den Brink can make a spirited return. But he’ll have to flog more Amarula liquor beyond the continent to ease the headache of wobbly currencies.

Wise’s profit-purpose balancing act may get harder

19 Oct 2021

The $13 bln fintech that wants to disrupt currency transfers is cutting foreign-exchange fees to win more users. Yet meeting investors’ revenue expectations while slashing prices looks tricky. CEO Kristo Käärmann may eventually have to irk either shareholders or customers.

Yen slide signals bad news for Japan Inc this time

15 Oct 2021

The currency has fallen to its weakest against the dollar in nearly three years. Such depreciation makes exporters more competitive, but right now it’s also accentuating a surge in raw material prices denominated in the greenback. That will sting corporate bottom lines.

El Salvador takes a risky punt on crypto

7 Sep 2021

Bitcoin is now an official currency in the Central American republic, alongside the U.S. dollar. There are potential benefits for a country that is so dependent on remittances from abroad, but President Nayib Bukele’s pioneering move has way too many downsides.

Crypto poses systemic risks that need swift remedy

7 Sep 2021

Digital currency trading venues are a $2 trln industry while some coins, like Tether, are backed by fiat currencies. If money markets freeze up, their positions are so large that they could have ripple effects. Watchdogs are classically behind in reining in the market.

How much is Wise worth?

5 Jul 2021

The money-changing app is listing in London without setting a price. Its worth depends largely on how much more foreign-exchange business CEO Kristo Käärmann can win from banks. A Breakingviews calculator shows Wise is due a roughly 20% upgrade from last year’s $5 bln price tag.

Wise’s FX land grab merits $6 bln valuation

5 Jul 2021

The money-changing app is listing in London without setting a price. Its worth depends largely on how much more foreign-exchange business CEO Kristo Käärmann can win from banks. A Breakingviews calculator shows Wise is due a roughly 20% upgrade from last year’s $5 bln price tag.