Currency

The world can survive a strong dollar – for now

13 May 2024

The greenback has gained 17% against major currencies in three years. Other countries avoided repeating past crises through better fiscal policies and less foreign borrowing. But in the long run a mighty buck will put economies under stress, especially in emerging markets.

Economic hard landing is delayed but not cancelled

10 May 2024

It’s two years since the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, yet economic growth has picked up and stocks have hit new highs. There are several reasons why the US economy is less responsive to tighter monetary policy. But it cannot avoid the effects indefinitely.

Europe has little to fear as ECB and Fed part ways

7 May 2024

The European Central Bank is set to cut rates before the US Federal Reserve for the first time in its history. Hardliners warn that will weaken the euro and feed inflation. But the effects are likely to be muted. Besides, a lower currency helps exports more than it hurts imports.

Yen intervention is a lost cause worth pursuing

29 Apr 2024

Tokyo may have acted to prop up the currency after it dropped below 160 to the dollar. It’s a losing bet until the US Federal Reserve cuts rates or the Bank of Japan tightens monetary policy further. But there is value in signalling to the world that this is not a one-way street.

Strong yuan, not stock market, tops Xi’s wish list

23 Jan 2024

The State Council pledges it will promote a stable capital market. Yet Beijing is showing more urgency in supporting the yuan, weakened by foreign selling. A strong currency is central to President Xi Jinping’s goal to make China a financial power. A strong stock market can wait.

Poland’s path to euro will be long and arduous

16 Jan 2024

New Prime Minister Donald Tusk wants to bring his country closer to the EU. As the co-author of an old plan to strengthen the monetary union, he might be expected to apply to join the single currency. Politics and economics make this a long-term goal at best.

Bitcoin ETF race is a shiny distraction

15 Dec 2023

The digital token’s price has spiked as a US exchange-traded fund creeps closer to approval, bringing it back into the ranks of the world’s most valuable assets. But as with gold, economic swings, not accessibility or inherent value, will mostly determine its long-term worth.

Pound’s strength is less sterling than it looks

1 Dec 2023

The currency was up 4% versus the dollar in November after the UK’s fiscal update and because traders think monetary policy will remain tight in 2024 to curb inflation. Yet a weak economy may require lower borrowing costs. Forex markets can brace for a reversal of current trends.

Bank of Japan’s hesitancy obscures yen’s appeal

15 Nov 2023

The central bank is signalling it will ditch ultra-low interest rates next year. That should boost the yen. Instead, it remains at historic lows against the dollar. Traders’ mistrust of the BOJ’s determination to act may cause them to miss out on the currency’s probable comeback.

Belated euro U-turn could be a winner for Sweden

6 Oct 2023

Top advocates of snubbing the single currency 20 years ago are now pushing for its adoption. The crown’s fall makes curbing inflation harder, and rate-setters are under the ECB’s spell. With low public deficit and debt levels, Stockholm may find joining late is better than never.

Japan’s inertia leaves yen at the mercy of the Fed

5 Oct 2023

It’s unclear if officials just intervened to stem currency losses but the debate ignores the bigger issue: The interest rate gap between the two countries will keep boosting the dollar. Unless Tokyo tightens policy, the US central bank will drive foreign exchange moves.

Erdogan’s orthodoxy creates new economic problems

13 Sep 2023

Turkey’s president finally ditched his love of low interest rates and pledged to curb inflation, currently at 59%. But Tayyip Erdogan still needs growth and will boost spending to get that. Soaring budget deficits and a weak currency will keep the economy under pressure.

Novo Nordisk heft worsens Danish surplus disease

8 Sep 2023

Sales of the pharma group equal 8% of Danish GDP and its $440 bln market value is Europe’s highest. Hosting corporate behemoths can be a problem for small countries, as shown by Finland’s Nokia. But Copenhagen can use the drug bounty to spend more on the rest of the economy.

China’s sliding currency is vote of no confidence

24 Aug 2023

The People’s Republic is scrambling to stop the yuan’s weakening against the US dollar. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss capital flight pressures and tepid investor interest in the world’s second largest economy, and what that means for the wider world.

Yuan slide half pulls Beijing out of its inertia

21 Aug 2023

It is scrambling to stop the currency’s slide against the US dollar but warning signs of diminishing returns on Chinese assets keep coming and will maintain capital flight pressure. The bill will be hefty the longer President Xi Jinping lets the economy search for a bottom.

Russia’s jumbo rate hike leaves Putin in hot water

15 Aug 2023

A plunge in the rouble and the Kremlin’s prodding forced the central bank to raise borrowing costs by 3.5 percentage points. The currency’s muted reaction leaves the president with more bad choices: restrict welfare spending or hope that even tighter policy can curb inflation.

The BRICS are better off disbanding than expanding

31 Jul 2023

Developing countries are understandably unhappy that rich nations don’t address their needs. But they won’t get much from a club including giant China and near-pariah Russia. Brazil, India and other emerging economies might achieve more by creating a new group, says Hugo Dixon.

Peak US interest rates will weaken dollar quicker

26 Jul 2023

The Fed’s latest hike should be the last, based on how investors are trading. Higher inflation elsewhere and slower increases by other monetary authorities suggest divergent policies will persist. Similar conditions that turbocharged the greenback are set to reverse thrust.

Russian crude imports expose India forex struggle

18 Jul 2023

The UAE is the Modi administration’s new target as it tries to make the rupee a global trading currency. Sanctions-hit Russia wasn’t keen, so refiners like Indian Oil have to settle deals with Moscow in yuan. New Delhi has yet to show it’s offering more than a speculative bet.

Capital Calls: Digital euro, Thames Water

28 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: Brussels is in a new push to convince EU member states and the European Parliament to endorse a digital euro; Britain’s Thames Water could be placed into special administration.