Currency

Why stablecoins will entrench dollar’s supremacy

25 Oct 2024

A Russian plan to break the greenback’s grip met a cool reception at the BRICS summit in Kazan. The more important monetary news was Stripe’s $1 bln acquisition of digital-currency group Bridge. Dollar-pegged blockchain currency will keep Uncle Sam on top of the monetary order.

China’s march to strong yuan is long and perilous

26 Sep 2024

President Xi Jinping wants a more powerful currency. This means increased usage of the renminbi in global payments and central bank reserves, rather than replacing the dollar. But Beijing’s desires for bigger forex heft clash with its need to keep a tight grip on the economy.

Europe’s inflation fix requires corporate pain

30 Aug 2024

Price growth in services is still running at 4.2%, too high for European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. To bring it down, companies’ margins will have to absorb rising wage costs. Shareholders may balk but consumers, and the euro zone economy, will benefit.

Carry trade chaos charts outlines of next selloff

28 Aug 2024

BIS researchers reckon cascading margin calls helped turn a local Japanese wobble into a global rout in early August, eventually wiping $1 trln off US tech stocks. It’s a similar story to a March 2020 slump and 2022’s UK bond collapse. Worse, the core drivers remain in place.

Euro is reluctant wearer of King Dollar’s crown

23 Aug 2024

The currency is up nearly 3% against the greenback this month. That is odd because markets think European interest rates will fall more than US ones. Worries about Washington’s budget deficit are a factor, but the export-led euro zone can ill afford a strong exchange rate.

The ECB is running out of time to revive euro zone

16 Aug 2024

The bloc’s GDP rose by a steady 0.3% in the second quarter. But business surveys and sentiment data suggest growth is flagging. Inflation is sticky so European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde may be reluctant to cut rates decisively. But waiting risks impairing the recovery.

Donald Trump may dent but not dethrone King Dollar

26 Jul 2024

The US currency’s long-predicted demise has so far failed to materialise. The former president’s possible return to the White House is a reason to reconsider. While the greenback remains unassailable as the de facto global standard, its days of cyclical strength may be numbered.

ECB can start worrying about growth, not inflation

6 Jun 2024

The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time since September 2019, but predicted inflation will stay above its 2% target until 2026. That could tempt Frankfurt hardliners to delay further monetary easing. Doing so would endanger the bloc’s fragile recovery.

Japan’s luxury boom sparks wishful China thinking

30 May 2024

LVMH and Prada have reported stellar sales in the country, while Richemont’s CEO hailed China’s resurgent overseas shopping as one reason for a 20% annual revenue bump there. But those big spenders have yet to return to pre-pandemic habits. A weak yen deserves more credit.

Yuan devaluation isn’t worth the trouble

14 May 2024

A weaker currency would boost exports and prices, but speculation China could engineer a fall underestimates Beijing’s desire for a stable exchange rate. Aggressive US tariffs could change the calculus. For now, official signals point to a slow grind lower against the dollar.

The world can survive a strong dollar – for now

13 May 2024

The greenback has gained 17% against major currencies in three years. Other countries avoided repeating past crises through better fiscal policies and less foreign borrowing. But in the long run a mighty buck will put economies under stress, especially in emerging markets.

Economic hard landing is delayed but not cancelled

10 May 2024

It’s two years since the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates, yet economic growth has picked up and stocks have hit new highs. There are several reasons why the US economy is less responsive to tighter monetary policy. But it cannot avoid the effects indefinitely.

Europe has little to fear as ECB and Fed part ways

7 May 2024

The European Central Bank is set to cut rates before the US Federal Reserve for the first time in its history. Hardliners warn that will weaken the euro and feed inflation. But the effects are likely to be muted. Besides, a lower currency helps exports more than it hurts imports.

Yen intervention is a lost cause worth pursuing

29 Apr 2024

Tokyo may have acted to prop up the currency after it dropped below 160 to the dollar. It’s a losing bet until the US Federal Reserve cuts rates or the Bank of Japan tightens monetary policy further. But there is value in signalling to the world that this is not a one-way street.

Strong yuan, not stock market, tops Xi’s wish list

23 Jan 2024

The State Council pledges it will promote a stable capital market. Yet Beijing is showing more urgency in supporting the yuan, weakened by foreign selling. A strong currency is central to President Xi Jinping’s goal to make China a financial power. A strong stock market can wait.

Poland’s path to euro will be long and arduous

16 Jan 2024

New Prime Minister Donald Tusk wants to bring his country closer to the EU. As the co-author of an old plan to strengthen the monetary union, he might be expected to apply to join the single currency. Politics and economics make this a long-term goal at best.

Bitcoin ETF race is a shiny distraction

15 Dec 2023

The digital token’s price has spiked as a US exchange-traded fund creeps closer to approval, bringing it back into the ranks of the world’s most valuable assets. But as with gold, economic swings, not accessibility or inherent value, will mostly determine its long-term worth.

Pound’s strength is less sterling than it looks

1 Dec 2023

The currency was up 4% versus the dollar in November after the UK’s fiscal update and because traders think monetary policy will remain tight in 2024 to curb inflation. Yet a weak economy may require lower borrowing costs. Forex markets can brace for a reversal of current trends.

Bank of Japan’s hesitancy obscures yen’s appeal

15 Nov 2023

The central bank is signalling it will ditch ultra-low interest rates next year. That should boost the yen. Instead, it remains at historic lows against the dollar. Traders’ mistrust of the BOJ’s determination to act may cause them to miss out on the currency’s probable comeback.

Belated euro U-turn could be a winner for Sweden

6 Oct 2023

Top advocates of snubbing the single currency 20 years ago are now pushing for its adoption. The crown’s fall makes curbing inflation harder, and rate-setters are under the ECB’s spell. With low public deficit and debt levels, Stockholm may find joining late is better than never.