Commodities

Russia’s wheat clout can hit world where it hurts

25 Feb 2022

The grain’s price hit a record high after the invasion of Ukraine, source of 8% of world exports. A long conflict in a country called the “breadbasket of Europe” would mean global shortfalls. President Vladimir Putin would cause even more disruptions if he curbed Russian exports.

American LNG burns even brighter

24 Feb 2022

Nearly 40% of European gas comes from Russia, and LNG facilities elsewhere are already largely booked. Still, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will boost booming liquefied gas exports. Replacing even part would mean long-term surety for firms like Cheniere itching to grow.

Viewsroom: Russia and Ukraine, Credit Suisse woes

24 Feb 2022

As President Vladimir Putin launches the biggest attack on a European state since World War Two and the West prepares its response, Dasha Afanasieva and Gina Chon discuss what comes next. And Liam Proud explains how an embarrassing data leak is the Swiss bank’s latest headache.

Glencore is gaining ground on its trust issues

15 Feb 2022

The $77 bln commodity giant has set aside $1.5 bln to settle graft probes. That’s better than feared. And an improving valuation suggests investors are less bothered about its desire to stick with coal. But the mineral remains sufficiently controversial to check further upside.

Macquarie boss channels Goldman’s Gus Levy

8 Feb 2022

Alongside a “record” quarter, Shemara Wikramanayake touts her $53 bln bank’s “cautious” approach. At the same time, she is aggressively positioning it for the energy transition, evoking the former Wall Street CEO’s long-term greedy mantra. Volatility demands resolve and balance.

Rio Tinto’s cultural fix will be an uphill dig

2 Feb 2022

The $117 bln mining giant is rife with bullying and racial and sexual abuse, according to a damning report. Miners’ improved safety records show reform is possible, if hard. Investors’ apparent indifference, though, makes prioritising workplace respect even tougher.

Serbia’s Rio smash dents EU electric-car dream

21 Jan 2022

The Balkan state nixed the $120 bln miner’s lithium project on environmental grounds. A looming election and spat over tennis ace Novak Djokovic didn’t help. Belgrade’s status as an investment destination is at stake. So are European hopes for reliable local battery ingredients.

Kazakh oligarch shakeup may give foreigners a shot

12 Jan 2022

President Tokayev needs to consolidate power after unrest and raise cash to placate his citizens. Billionaires allied to his predecessor are obvious targets. Since he lacks a go-to gang to take over mining assets, he may favour gradual redistribution and more external investment.

Rio Tinto’s new chair is an odd change agent

20 Dec 2021

The $105 bln miner has appointed Dominic Barton to run its board. China experience fits well with managing Rio’s key relationship, but scandal tainted McKinsey while he ran the consultancy. For a group trying to move on from its own controversies, it’s a strange choice.

Rio Tinto Mongolian hardball ends up looking soft

13 Dec 2021

The $105 bln miner has offered to write off a $2.3 bln loan to Ulaanbaatar linked to the Oyu Tolgoi copper project. Boss Jakob Stausholm is giving up billions of dollars in interest. But holding firm risked the company being chucked off a project that could bring in a lot more.

Exxon climate pledges pick low-hanging fruit

1 Dec 2021

The oil giant will meet its 2025 goal for cutting carbon emissions four years ahead of schedule. It now plans to cut company-wide output by 20% by 2030, without lowering returns on investment. New activist directors have more to do if Exxon is to catch up with European peers.

Capital Calls: Volkswagen, Turkey

1 Dec 2021

Concise views on global finance: The German carmaker may take mining stakes to secure electric-vehicle raw materials, echoing Henry Ford, the U.S. production-line pioneer; the Turkish central bank is resorting to old tricks to prop up the lira but it’s an unsustainable strategy.

Glencore’s activist is misguided but not unhelpful

30 Nov 2021

Bluebell is pushing the $63 bln miner-trader to spin off coal. Thungela’s plans to dig up more of the mineral after its Anglo spinoff weaken the argument, and prices are at record highs. Still, if it makes Glencore quit coal quicker than its 2050 target, it’s a job well done.

Capital Calls: Remy Cointreau, African petrol

25 Nov 2021

Concise views on global finance: With profits soaring, the cognac maker will face mounting pressure for M&A; commodity trader Vitol buys out minority shareholders in London-listed fuel distributor Vivo.

Chancellor: Investors unprepared for carbon crunch

18 Nov 2021

Markets aren’t effectively factoring in a potential hydrocarbons scarcity. It’s not just that the world is trying to get off fossil fuels. They’re increasingly expensive to extract as supplies reach their peak. It’s another downside risk investors need to consider.

Icahn’s Southwest Gas mixtape has all the hits

19 Nov 2021

The activist is blasting overspending, making a hostile tender offer, criticizing a major deal and pushing for a breakup in his campaign at the $4 bln U.S. utility. They are classic Icahn tactics. But history suggests investors might do best if he gets only some of what he wants.

Forget COP26. The world needs COPPER 26

5 Nov 2021

The climate shindig is all about cutting demand for fossil fuels. The required flipside is a 2020s surge in production of metals for all those extra wind turbines and electric cars. Stay tuned for a separate forum in which governments and miners thrash out how that might happen.

EU-U.S. green steel deal shows way for COP26

2 Nov 2021

Washington and Brussels will set a common external tariff for dirtier types of the metal. It’s similar in effect to the EU’s carbon border levy, with less of the grief. The lesson for Glasgow negotiators is that sector-based deals may be a safer bet than big multilateral ones.

Capital Calls: Spanx’s “velvet ghetto”

20 Oct 2021

Concise views on global finance: Blackstone’s investment in the undergarments company was closed by an all-woman team. That’s progress, but not the best kind.

Glencore CEO’s top M&A pick is Glencore

15 Oct 2021

With a strategy set under predecessor Ivan Glasenberg, new boss Gary Nagle has few ways to make his mark. Record coal and copper prices and unique cobalt assets mean his own shares look cheap. He could buy them back, but a more striking gambit would be a full sale to Rio or BHP.