Commodities

Copper’s M&A mania obscures a dysfunctional market

23 May 2024

The red metal is the main driver of BHP’s $46 bln bid for Anglo American. But despite expectations that the energy transition will boost demand, prices are still too low to tempt miners into expanding production. Mergers may help break the deadlock, but aren’t certain to do so.

BHP boss hopes a week is a long time in dealmaking

23 May 2024

Mike Henry has won an extra seven days to try to seal a deal with Anglo American. The trick will be to persuade his harried quarry that its own breakup plan is more risky than BHP's three-step approach. It's a battle of egos, and may yet require upping the $46 bln proposal.

BHP may have to channel Glenstrata to snare Anglo

22 May 2024

The UK-listed miner has rejected the Australian giant’s latest $46 bln offer. Glencore’s 2012 swoop on rival Xstrata produced annual synergies of more than $2 bln. To offer more for Anglo American without hurting his own investors, BHP boss Mike Henry may need something similar.

Gulf buyer is best hope to revive De Beers sparkle

16 May 2024

Anglo American wants to offload its diamonds group. Hit by cheaper lab-grown gems and falling demand, De Beers will struggle to attract a luxury buyer. A rich Middle East suitor looks the most plausible way to avoid a sale at well below its $7.6 bln book value, or a mere spinoff.

Anglo breakup gives investors a free option on M&A

14 May 2024

The $40 bln miner plans to offload coal, diamond, nickel and platinum assets to help fend off takeover interest from BHP. The standalone strategy may be worth more to shareholders than what its Australian suitor proposed. Yet if it flops, a future takeover might be even easier.

BHP-Anglo impasse more about structure than price

13 May 2024

Anglo American spurned an improved $43 bln bid from its Australian rival. A key obstacle is that BHP wants its target’s investors to bear the risks attached to spinning off unwanted South African units. CEO Mike Henry can remove it by making an offer for the whole company.

Rio Tinto may be dark horse in BHP-Anglo saga

10 May 2024

The $120 bln miner may yet crash the Big Australian’s $39 bln merger. Still, if BHP does win Anglo and Glencore is busy integrating its $7 bln Teck deal, Rio’s key mining rivals will be distracted. That may give CEO Jakob Stausholm a clearer run at the likes of First Quantum.

Cotton gins up competitive M&A spirits

7 May 2024

Louis Dreyfus and Olam have between them made five bids for Australia's Namoi Cotton. And the two commodity trading giants may yet go a few more rounds. The $120 mln deal may be a small battle, but it can set the tone for the broader market. The trick is not to get carried away.

BHP bombshell puts South African mining in a hole

6 May 2024

The Australian miner’s $39 bln tilt at Anglo American highlights the decline of the country’s once-mighty industry. Blocking the deal would send an even worse signal about South Africa as an investment destination. Pretoria would do better to push for a more acceptable outcome.

Clash of the mining titans will get more bruising

2 May 2024

Australian giant BHP’s $39 bln swing for Anglo American is a contentious, complex land grab for the metals key to a renewable future. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the political and financial hurdles, and why this M&A contest has a way to run.

Anglo breakup costs complicate a sweeter BHP deal

1 May 2024

The miner’s Australian suitor is mulling a hike to its $39 bln proposal. But if Anglo American were to demerge its listed South African units as part of the deal, BHP or any other buyer might inherit a $2 bln tax bill. That may limit BHP boss Mike Henry’s scope for generosity.

BHP investors throw CEO too short an M&A leash

26 Apr 2024

The miner’s stock fell 4.6% after the company proposed to buy Anglo American at a $39 bln valuation. It suggests shareholders fear boss Mike Henry will end up overpaying. But with his low-ball opener leaving plenty of wriggle room to justify upping the bid, that looks premature.

Anglo American has grounds to play hard to get

25 Apr 2024

The London-listed miner has received an all-share $39 bln bid from BHP. Anglo’s recent woes explain why, but its jumble of assets could be worth more. If boss Duncan Wanblad can show as much by outlining a plan B, he may yet see its $149 bln rival off – or extract a higher offer.

Commodity trading giants get in cotton M&A spin

26 Mar 2024

Singapore's Olam has bested Louis Dreyfus' offer for one of Australia's largest processors of the fibre. The two suitors have battled Down Under in the past, and Olam looks to have the edge for a second win. But the volatility of earnings in this small deal warrants caution.

Like Rome, oil demand won’t be destroyed in a day

18 Mar 2024

Oil producers attending the big industry confab in Houston this week recognize they are under pressure. US firms are merging; Saudi is reinventing itself. Like in any dwindling empire, many leaders will want to take over rivals. Rewarding investors with cash is a better strategy.

Mining pain may be just getting started

22 Feb 2024

Falling prices for nickel, lithium and copper have hit earnings at Glencore and Anglo American. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why competition and dwindling demand for electric vehicles will keep key battery commodities under pressure.

Anglo American can mine Vale for revamp ideas

22 Feb 2024

The $30 bln miner is reviewing its asset mix after a ropey year. To ease its conglomerate discount CEO Duncan Wanblad could offload his struggling diamonds arm, but that’s not easy. Or he could follow his Brazilian peer and split off copper – perhaps using some outside cash.

Miner BHP brings tail risks up to the surface

20 Feb 2024

The company lost 86% of its half-year earnings, or $5.6 bln, to a writedown in its smallest business - nickel - and more provisions for a 2015 tailings dam disaster. Other parts are chugging along, but the charges are a reminder to shareholders of the industry's outsized hazards.

Nickel aid is too little, too late

19 Feb 2024

Miners of the electric vehicle battery metal will get royalty relief and help from Aussie taxpayers. It's unlikely to reverse decisions by First Quantum, IGO, and Wyloo to mothball projects after prices crashed. Developing critical minerals requires a robust long-term strategy.

Iron ore investors mine irrational exuberance

16 Jan 2024

The mineral's recent 40% jump has sent BHP, Fortescue and Rio's Aussie-listed shares towards record highs. Yet the trio's earnings are below their peak, as is the commodity, whose price is expected to fall. Absent a sudden upswing in China's economy, the rally looks overdone.