Commodities

Trump mineral plan will create bigger problems

8 May 2025

The US wants to produce more minerals like rare earths and apply tariffs on Chinese imports. Hiking production in the $325 bln market makes sense but opening new mines will take decades. In the meantime, Washington will have to scramble for limited supplies from other countries.

The heart of the US oil boom is slowing

5 May 2025

Texas’s Permian Basin is the engine of a fossil-fuel renaissance that turned the nation into the world’s largest producer at 13 mln barrels a day. Yet costs are up, prices are low and untapped land is dwindling. The rise and fall of other fields offers a guide for what to expect.

Gold’s golden moment dazzles better-value rivals

2 May 2025

The price of the yellow metal has soared 25% this year as investors fret about inflation and the future of the dollar. It has left metals like silver and platinum far behind. Though they lack gold’s strong brand, other commodities offer better long-term prospects for investors.

Gold shines brighter as red, white and blue dull

24 Apr 2025

The precious metal’s price has surged 24% to $3,300 an ounce this year as foreign investors and central banks take cover amid Donald Trump’s trade war. There’s no good proxy for zero-risk US debt, but yellow bars will be a trendy hedge if the dollar’s reserve status keeps fading.

Surging gold gives Richemont pricing dilemma

23 Apr 2025

The $95 bln Cartier watch maker may pass on the extra costs of the yellow metal and tariffs to customers. But its quirky pricing model, created to deter shoppers from international bargain hunting, will dent demand in the US and China and make the pain worse.

Fake chocolate is a sweeter bet than plant burgers

28 Mar 2025

Once-hyped startups failed to displace beef with eco-conscious alternatives. Artificial confections have a stronger pitch: as candy makers like Hershey struggle to hedge rising cocoa costs amid a supply crunch, economic reality will tempt the $130 bln treat industry into the lab.

Anglo’s self-help plan is working deceptively well

20 Feb 2025

The $41 bln miner’s shares are well below the value of a rejected share-based offer from BHP last year, and CEO Duncan Wanblad is mired in writedowns. But diamond woes are old. And Anglo American’s valuation multiple has at least improved even as its suitor’s stock has dropped.

Cracks in India’s consumption story run deep

16 Jan 2025

Wages of its giant workforce are stagnating, dragging down growth in the $4 trln economy. Authorities can cut taxes or ease the flow of credit to stimulate spending. It will, though, cut the financial stability that underpins the emerging market’s moment.

BHP will try a club deal for Anglo American

17 Dec 2024

The Aussie miner is now free to make another takeover proposal for its smaller rival, whose copper assets still appeal to CEO Mike Henry. But paying a big premium looks harder to justify second time round. Partnering with a rival like Glencore or Vale may smooth the way.

US-China tech war will hold Asian allies hostage

16 Dec 2024

Washington’s curbs on semiconductors and other goods are starting to elicit a response from the People’s Republic. New export control rules offer a way for Beijing to retaliate. Its leverage over giants like Japan’s Toyota or South Korea’s SK Hynix make them prime targets.

Gold surge adds glitter to tarnished miners

31 Oct 2024

The yellow metal is up 35% this year as investors fret about inflation. Gold miners like Newmont and Barrick have repeatedly failed to capitalise on the ore’s rising value. But new-found financial discipline and modest valuations present investors with a rare opportunity.

Rio’s $6.7 bln lithium bet is a pricey slow burn

9 Oct 2024

The $112 bln miner is paying a 90% premium to buy Arcadium in cash. That’s probably not justified by the synergies – and Rio Tinto has yet to reveal them. Boss Jakob Stausholm can point to forecasts of a lithium demand surge, but right now investors have to take his word for it.

Rio boss may be about to eat his M&A words

7 Oct 2024

Jakob Stausholm is in talks to buy Arcadium Lithium, soon after saying deals only make sense if cost cuts cover the premium. On that score, he can perhaps offer a 40% bump, valuing his prey at $4.2 bln. With one investor wanting double that, Stausholm faces an unpalatable choice.

Hong Kong economic pain is marginal gain for LME

4 Oct 2024

Port activity and land prices have fallen so far that the London Metal Exchange is eyeing warehouses in the financial hub. That may spur more Chinese buyers to use the bourse. But despite more than a decade of Hong Kong ownership, storage in mainland China remains out of reach.

Deforestation U-turn takes EU down a risky road

3 Oct 2024

Brussels has proposed a 12-month delay to a law banning imports linked to tree-felling. It had looked like the so-called EUDR would come in on time, with measures to soothe irked trading partners. The risk now is that it gets defanged – and other EU climate goals follow suit.

EU deforestation ban creates a hazy trade future

23 Sep 2024

The European Union wants to ban agricultural imports from deforested land. The rules have laudable aims but will impact $400 bln worth of goods. Developing nations are already exporting elsewhere. To avoid losing vital supplies, Brussels can compensate farmers or lower standards.

Some US Steel appeal would survive busted deal

12 Sep 2024

The 123-year-old company’s value has dropped as chances rise that US authorities will block its $15 bln sale to Nippon. Without the merger, the costly transition to new furnaces would be left to boss David Burritt. There’s no substitute for a control premium, but upside lingers.

AngloGold’s mid-size miner pounce may set a trend

10 Sep 2024

The US-listed group is paying $2.5 bln for Egypt-focused rival Centamin. High gold prices make it easier for bigger fish to bulk up via share-based deals. Rising production costs and future price volatility suggest more relative minnows could say yes to an adequate premium.

Glencore may be the next UK listing to head west

7 Aug 2024

The $61 bln miner had planned to spin off its coal unit via a New York IPO. Given the pollutant’s profit remains alluring, it now won’t. But Glencore boss Gary Nagle could weigh up US investors’ greater fondness for fossil fuels, and opt to move the whole company instead.

Rio boss’s M&A red line may come back to haunt him

31 Jul 2024

Jakob Stausholm says the $110 bln miner will only do deals when synergies cover any premium it pays. That's usually sensible. But it might rule out buying early stage projects like rival BHP is in copper. And sometimes longer-term growth trumps shorter-term financial pain.