Central Banks

Japan will gain from ultra-cautious ratesetters

27 Jul 2023

The world’s third-largest economy is on the cusp of a virtuous circle where inflation lifts wages and spending. But the central bank needs to tread carefully. If it prematurely declares victory and tightens policy, it could spur a debt rout. The cost of waiting is also growing.

Peak US interest rates will weaken dollar quicker

26 Jul 2023

The Fed’s latest hike should be the last, based on how investors are trading. Higher inflation elsewhere and slower increases by other monetary authorities suggest divergent policies will persist. Similar conditions that turbocharged the greenback are set to reverse thrust.

ECB’s tough-guy act is getting harder to maintain

26 Jul 2023

Traders expect the European Central Bank to hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. President Christine Lagarde wants them to stay high to curb inflation, yet markets are betting on cuts in early 2024. Unless she wins the argument, borrowing costs may have to rise more.

‘Immaculate disinflation’ places Fed in purgatory

25 Jul 2023

Inflation is falling towards the US central bank’s 2% target without a recession or job losses. History and economic theory suggested such a feat was impossible. Doubts over conventional thinking leave policymakers in a bind over the next stage of their fight to rein in prices.

UK inflation dip puts Andrew Bailey on the spot

19 Jul 2023

The growth in UK consumer prices slowed more than expected in June, to 7.9%. It’s welcome news for households, and sent British stocks soaring. The Bank of England governor, though, is likely to keep hiking rates, increasing the risk he will go too far.

New Aussie central bank boss faces two-front war

14 Jul 2023

Deputy Governor Michele Bullock is replacing Philip Lowe. She’ll wield less power in a more independent institution than her gaffe-prone predecessor. The inside pick offers stability as the Reserve Bank battles an economic slowdown and the prospect of El Nino-driven inflation.

Andrew Bailey’s silence is hurting UK homeowners

12 Jul 2023

Traders’ confusion over the Bank of England’s decisions is sending market interest rates wild. That has pushed the cost of a popular mortgage to a 15-year high. To limit household pain, the governor needs to ditch his usual reticence and tell markets that they are wrong.

Why central banks cannot relax in inflation fight

4 Jul 2023

Western policymakers have frantically hiked interest rates to dampen consumer prices. In this Exchange podcast, Claudio Borio, a top official at the Bank for International Settlements, argues that rate-setters need to keep going to ensure costs of living won’t stay elevated.

Capital Calls: China’s central bank, Generali

3 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: The People’s Bank of China plays it safe by earmarking Pan Gongsheng as its new governor; the Del Vecchio family gets the green light to own more than 10% of the 30 bln euro Italian insurer.

The next revolution in monetary policy is underway

30 Jun 2023

Central banks are grappling with rising prices and fragile financial markets, raising doubts about their focus on price stability. Recent interventions by the International Monetary Fund and Bank for International Settlements are signs of a broader rethink, says Felix Martin.

US banks gird for dose of post-stress-test trauma

29 Jun 2023

Big lenders breezed through their annual examinations but will soon be walloped with new rules that could force them to hold one-fifth more capital. Some of that looks like overkill. But watchdogs bruised by recent bank failures may see that as a feature, not a bug.

Central banks’ calls for pay restraint ring hollow

29 Jun 2023

Western central bankers want workers to ask for lower raises unless firms cut their margins to compensate staff. With salaries growing less than inflation, that’s a harsh demand. Past rate rises will in time cool labour markets. Officials need to talk less and wait longer.

Bank of Italy pick will give Italy an EU headache

28 Jun 2023

ECB member Fabio Panetta is heading home to lead the national central bank. That will remove a dove from Europe’s rate-setters, just as they pursue a hard line on inflation. To send another Italian to Frankfurt, premier Giorgia Meloni may need to compromise on Brussels issues.

UK banks are appropriate airbag for mortgage crash

27 Jun 2023

British politicians are starting to call out lenders that have delayed passing on higher rates to savers, even as they charge borrowers more. Bank share valuations already implied such windfalls might be temporary. The sector’s rising margins justify some political arm-twisting.

China stares hard at its own lost decade

23 Jun 2023

It’s tinkering with interest rates but holding off from deeper measures needed to stimulate the economy including propping up real estate or bailing out local governments. As consumption remains depressed and investment falls, the country faces slipping into a downward spiral.

Firefighting leaves central banks on shaky ground

22 Jun 2023

Policymakers in the UK, Switzerland, Norway and Turkey all hiked rates on Thursday. Stubborn inflation gives them little choice, even though they may cause recessions. In London and Ankara, ratesetters’ job is made much harder by politicians’ own failures and need for scapegoats.

Credibility crisis requires BoE to write new plot

20 Jun 2023

The Bank of England’s inflation outlook is faulty because it relies on traders’ expectations. That leads markets to overreact to data, causing pain for homebuyers and firms. Adopting the US system, where policymakers make predictions, would curb policy mistakes and volatility.

Fed’s pause is now easier to extend

14 Jun 2023

Chair Jerome Powell’s rate-setting crew snapped its long streak of hikes. With the banking crisis stabilized, the FOMC can refocus on prices. Inflation persists, but is moving in the right direction, and there’s less reason to hew to investors expecting a fresh increase in July.

ECB’s autopilot raises risk of hard landing

14 Jun 2023

The European Central Bank is set to hike rates on Thursday and again in July. But traders’ hopes for cuts soon afterwards may be dashed, given pressure from hardline countries to tame stubborn inflation. Europe’s recovery is looking increasingly fragile.

Capital Calls: Funky bank debt

14 Jun 2023

Concise views on global finance: Credit investors are increasingly willing to buy quasi-equity instruments known as AT1s, despite a near-death experience for the asset class amid the Credit Suisse crisis in March.