Cox: Trump Fed misfire rallies its true believers 9 May 2019 It’s not the first time a U.S. president has tried to meddle in monetary policy. But the failed shoehorning of partisans onto the central bank’s board has bound hawks and doves together in a robust defense of the institution’s independence, as a recent Stanford confab revealed.
Malaysia’s ruling coalition could use a fresh push 7 May 2019 A year after his shock win, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's popularity is flagging. Change has been slow. His party has only tinkered with wasteful subsidies. Scrapping a goods and service tax also left a fiscal hole. It’ll take more to fix tainted institutions and fuel growth.
China loses leverage in battle against debt 6 May 2019 Hours after Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, the central bank made another $40 bln available for small mainland firms to borrow. Prior easing moves helped stocks and housing more than the productive economy. This delicate balancing act looks wobbly.
India Insight: Voters could deliver a strongwoman 6 May 2019 If Narendra Modi’s BJP fails to secure enough seats in an ongoing election, a coalition of regional parties may emerge. One potential leader is West Bengal’s fiery chief, Mamata Banerjee. She has some of the prime minister’s controlling traits, but far looser purse strings.
Fed traditions live to fight another day 2 May 2019 Donald Trump has now lost both his picks for a spot at the U.S. central bank after Stephen Moore joined Herman Cain in taking himself out of contention. Their own shortcomings were to blame more than senators’ respect for the Fed’s independence. But it’s a reprieve all the same.
Irish import new thinking into ECB from Down Under 1 May 2019 Ireland has hired New Zealand’s treasury chief, Gabriel Makhlouf, as its new central bank boss. While not a rate-setter, he arrives from a country that added an employment target to its monetary authority’s inflation goal. And Dublin can brag it is attracting global talent.
Sri Lanka earns a no-confidence discount 29 Apr 2019 The likes of France and Egypt have suffered economically after tragic attacks, but Colombo’s political infighting and botched death toll are apt to slow any recovery. Even if the IMF and China provide backstops, Sri Lanka looks vulnerable to the worst kind of collapse in tourism.
Hong Kong currency peg seduces yet again 29 Apr 2019 Hedge fund manager Kyle Bass is the latest investor to lay out a dire case about a long-time link to the U.S. dollar. His rambling argument suggests overleveraged banks and political ructions make the peg precarious. It probably will require a real crisis to prompt any overhaul.
Guest view: Halve Bank of Japan’s inflation target 26 Apr 2019 Consumer prices are rising more slowly than the central bank’s 2 percent goal. Aiming for 1 percent is acceptable in a country with a low jobless rate, Koichi Hamada, economic adviser to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe argues. Any resulting yen appreciation will be manageable.
Picking the next Bank of England chief 24 Apr 2019 The hunt is on for a replacement for Governor Mark Carney, who leaves in early 2020. Breakingviews’ interactive yardstick helps sift through the runners and riders.
How to pick the next Bank of England chief 24 Apr 2019 The hunt is on for a replacement for Governor Mark Carney, who leaves in early 2020. Only talented economists with top-notch central bank experience need apply. Creativity and grit are also required. Breakingviews’ interactive yardstick helps sift through the runners and riders.
Climate risk gets the right kind of oversight 18 Apr 2019 Central banks presiding over almost half the planet’s GDP plan to treat global warming as a threat to financial stability. It’ll add heft to existing pressure from investors and make it harder for companies and their lenders to ignore the longer-term impacts of climate change.
Indonesian election may change some investor votes 18 Apr 2019 Polls suggest Joko Widodo won another term, but with a narrow enough victory margin to embolden a belligerent opposition. There were pockets of populist success, too. That will temper hopes he’ll finally tackle energy subsidies and even rigid labour rules to woo foreign money.
Share surge is a bet China is back on track 17 Apr 2019 The economy grew an unremarkable 6.4 pct in the first quarter. That belies a growing optimism that has turned its stock market into a top performer globally in 2019. An impressive credit rebound has helped. The test will be whether animal spirits alone can keep momentum going.
Axing China’s residency rules makes great stimulus 12 Apr 2019 Officials are relaxing some restrictions that inhibit internal migrants from relocating to big cities. Local governments worried about budgets stymied progress in the past. But rolling back obsolete regulations now could give a big boost to labour productivity and growth.
Bond market addition will test China’s resolve 11 Apr 2019 Index inclusion is pulling global investors into the $13 trln market. Implausible ratings and thin liquidity are among fixable teething issues. The real question is if Beijing will meddle with bonds in bad times as it has in stocks. Initial signs are that it might resist.
ECB sop to banks will only help at the margin 10 Apr 2019 President Mario Draghi is considering ways to ease the pain that negative policy rates inflict on banks, such as tiered deposits in Japan and Sweden. Savings-rich German lenders would benefit most. But any earnings boost would be modest and does nothing to remedy high costs.
Hadas: Biased central bankers beat foolish ones 10 Apr 2019 President Trump’s pick of loyal supporter Herman Cain as a U.S. Fed governor is a bad idea. Not because of his partisan bias, since central banks are inherently political. But monetary policy is too poorly understood and unpredictable to be entrusted to amateur ideologues.
Modi victory rally in Indian stocks is premature 10 Apr 2019 The Nifty 50 benchmark hit a record high on expectations the prime minister’s BJP party will get five more years. Valuations are already toppy amid an economic slowdown and weak investment. That can improve only if the winner repairs a huge trust deficit with the “bollygarchs.”
Fed has little need for what Cain’s serving 4 Apr 2019 As a governor, Herman Cain’s business nous might help the U.S. central bank, which can suffer from economist group think. He excelled at Burger King and Godfather’s Pizza. Yet Cain is a political figure who once backed the gold standard. Some ideas are too far outside the box.