Central Banks

ECB’s inflation problem has bigger Ukrainian twist

2 Mar 2022

Christine Lagarde faces the same commodity price surge as her Canadian peer, who just hiked interest rates, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to do the same. But a less robust euro zone economy is more exposed to the war on its doorstep. Her least bad option is to dawdle.

Ukraine war is tectonic shift for global finance

1 Mar 2022

Investor turned anti-corruption campaigner Bill Browder joins Dasha Afanasieva on The Exchange podcast to explain why tougher sanctions from the West, including freezing oligarch assets, threaten Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip, and cripple the country’s economy.

Canada’s labor paradox has global resonance

1 Mar 2022

The proportion of Canadians in work or seeking jobs is nearly back up to pre-pandemic levels and a central bank rate hike is likely this week. Yet firms are finding it hard to fill vacancies. This ominous sign suggests governments will have to do more to fix labor shortages.

Russian economic collapse will be hard to avoid

28 Feb 2022

The central bank more than doubled its main policy rate to 20% to support the plunging rouble. It won’t be enough. But further hikes or capital controls would compound pain in an economy where Western sanctions are spurring a run on banks. Moscow has few viable policy options.

Investors in Russia face mark-to-no-market problem

28 Feb 2022

The rouble tanked and Moscow’s bourse froze after the West intensified sanctions against President Vladimir Putin. Money managers and foreign companies face the prospect of writing off Russian assets. Uncertainty about who bears those costs will ricochet around global markets.

China’s yuan plausibly mimics a safe-haven asset

25 Feb 2022

The currency, once subject to speculative swings, has stayed stable as Russia attacks Ukraine. It’s buttressed by a big trade surplus and central bank conservatism, both of which might change, but it has clearly gained traction with serious investors.

Bond market sends flawed signals on U.S. economy

24 Feb 2022

A dash to safe havens means Treasuries are in big demand. But the yield curve is sending the same messages it was before Russia invaded Ukraine: that Fed rate hikes may trigger recession and that policy rates won’t rise much above 2%. Both presumptions could be wrong.

Viewsroom: Ukraine, ECB and India’s giant insurer

17 Feb 2022

Worries about an invasion of Ukraine have rattled markets, but Dasha Afanasieva says Russian investors are more sanguine. The European Central Bank faces a tougher inflation juggling act, argues Swaha Pattanaik. And Una Galani discusses the listing of India’s Life Insurance Corp.

Biden’s bungled Fed pick symptom of larger disease

16 Feb 2022

The U.S. president’s central bank nominee is a climate stalwart, prompting Republicans to boycott a vote. A pattern of drafting political candidates for non-partisan outfits, like the FTC, is emerging. It’s counterproductive and can also widen agency mandates in dangerous ways.

China prices are cold comfort for global shoppers

16 Feb 2022

Factory-gate prices softened, and consumer inflation rose just 0.9% as supply shortages eased. Domestic stimulus might not change much. That’s good news for overseas customers grappling with soaring costs. But a weak Chinese economy will have less desirable knock-on effects.

ECB has central banking’s hardest juggling act

15 Feb 2022

President Christine Lagarde faces a less acute inflation problem than U.S. or UK peers. But she’ll have to raise interest rates to curb price pressures while ensuring bond yield gaps between euro zone nations don’t widen to worrying levels. The two goals may become incompatible.

Shipping news makes grim reading for central banks

9 Feb 2022

Logistics giants Maersk and DSV expect another bumper year due to high freight rates. Their guidance suggests transport costs are unlikely to fall to pre-pandemic levels even if ports unclog. That will make life harder for rate-setters as they seek to curb high inflation.

Aussie lenders offer risky bet on rising rates

9 Feb 2022

The big four, including Commonwealth and ANZ, rely more on interest income than U.S. peers, so should benefit when central banks tighten. But a rate hike Down Under might be slower than expected, while fixed-rate loans and rivalry for deposits and borrowers will eat into gains.

Andrew Bailey pay rise clanger has tiny PR upside

7 Feb 2022

The Bank of England chief’s call for wage restraint has gone down badly with workers facing soaring prices. The ensuing controversy, has, however, done more to inform the public about the central bank’s mission to control inflation than many past communications campaigns.

Guest view: Fed hikes spell emerging-market strain

4 Feb 2022

Poorer indebted economies face growing difficulties as the U.S. Federal Reserve signals its readiness to raise interest rates. William Rhodes, former president of Citibank, and economist Stuart Mackintosh lay out what creditors, borrowers and the IMF can do to avert a crisis.

Big Oil elbows out banks as Fed’s new kingmaker

3 Feb 2022

The energy sector has come out swinging against Sarah Bloom Raskin, President Biden’s pick to lead supervision at the U.S. central bank. The ex-Fed governor is outspoken on climate risks. The business lobby could frustrate her confirmation, even with Democrats in Senate control.

ECB shows words matter more than actions

3 Feb 2022

President Christine Lagarde left interest rates unchanged while the Bank of England raised them. Yet she made the bigger market splash by admitting inflation risks had grown. It was the first clear sign that she may join global peers this year in tightening monetary policy.

New Bank of England guessing game begins

3 Feb 2022

A second rate rise in as many months raises the question of how quickly Governor Andrew Bailey will reduce bond holdings accumulated during the pandemic. A gradual approach won’t cause economic or market pain. But debt yields will become more volatile once the Fed follows suit.

The Exchange: San Francisco Fed boss Mary Daly

1 Feb 2022

U.S. inflation is at its highest in four decades. The central banker explains to Swaha Pattanaik how the Federal Reserve plans to tackle price pressures without jeopardising growth or job creation, and outlines her views on the outlook for monetary policy.

Fed rate feast leaves crumbs for bank customers

19 Jan 2022

Big U.S. lenders like JPMorgan are readying for an inflow of interest income as the central bank puts up rates. But the amount they pass to depositors is likely to be even more paltry than in past cycles. Competition from upstarts like SoFi may improve service but not returns.