Central Banks

Markets gulp down central banks’ half-full glass

2 Feb 2023

Three of the world’s most prominent central banks raised interest rates to multi-year highs this week. Investors loved it, reading the decisions as the beginning of the end for monetary tightening. Policymakers, and stubborn inflation, might prove them wrong.

Sick Britain no longer needs Dr Bailey’s medicine

1 Feb 2023

The Bank of England is likely to raise its key interest rate to 4% on Thursday. That would be a step too far. The UK is nearing a recession, consumers are suffering and inflation is abating. The higher Governor Andrew Bailey hikes rates, the more drastic cuts will likely follow.

Euro zone can afford to keep fiscal taps running

31 Jan 2023

The bloc’s governments pumped up spending by 3.75% of GDP over the past two years to cushion the blow of Covid-19 and higher energy prices. Now they are closing the spigots. That’s a mistake. Manageable debt costs leave room to support growth – and help the ECB fight inflation.

Capital Calls: McDonald’s, Spotify

31 Jan 2023

Concise views on global finance: The burger chain’s comparable sales growth despite rising prices proves there’s pricing power at the bottom of the market; shares in the $21 bln music-streaming service leapt after founder Daniel Ek unveiled rapid subscriber growth.

Davos, Inc. finds reasons to be less gloomy

20 Jan 2023

Business leaders gathering in the Swiss mountain resort have plenty to fret about. Still, with China reopening, Europe keeping the lights on and interest rate pressure easing, the overriding emotion is one of relief. Less clear is whether the mood extends beyond the alpine elite.

Fintech fight tests Fed’s transparency mission

19 Jan 2023

The Federal Reserve will soon disclose which firms it approves for valuable master accounts. It’s the latest in the central bank’s push toward greater transparency, but change has been slow. Fintechs seeking master accounts of their own will check the Fed’s sincerity.

Bank of Japan has learnt danger of half-measures

18 Jan 2023

The central bank’s decision to stay put on interest rates saw the yen soften and hurt 10-year bond yields. Last month’s surprise tweak to bond trading bands failed to impress traders. Inaction may be painful and expensive, but muddled economic signals make it understandable.

Expansionist dreams threaten ECB digital euro plan

17 Jan 2023

As the European Central Bank develops its own online currency, politicians want a big say. Hostility from some rubs against the ECB’s cautious enthusiasm. Yet if political forces push a digital euro to be more global than the ECB is ready for, it may weaken financial stability.

European stocks will defy bonds’ revival

16 Jan 2023

In the past decade, Western equities delivered far better returns than bonds. An ongoing central bank crusade to fight inflation points to a fixed income comeback in 2023. Yet cheap valuations and ECB rates hesitancy will help European stocks steal a march on local bonds.

India can credibly push digital currencies to talk

11 Jan 2023

The e-rupee will be a hard sell at home but it could slash costs of overseas transfers. As a receiver of $100 bln annual household remittances and champion of interoperable payments, New Delhi can use its G20 presidency to foster global cooperation to tap the compelling use case.

Being ready for anything is top priority for 2023

3 Jan 2023

After the global pandemic and the outbreak of war in Europe, the world faces a vast array of possibilities this year. Little wonder that executives, policymakers and financiers are planning for many scenarios. Though the choices remain difficult, there’s value in thinking ahead.

Global finance unknowns are more “who” than “what”

27 Dec 2022

The blowup of the UK pension market has got regulators hunting for weaknesses in the over-$200 trln shadow banking sector. Emerging market funds and leveraged loans both bring vulnerabilities. But in deciding what to police, the question is who’s exposed. That’s a blind spot.

Central bank schism is bad news for bunds

22 Dec 2022

Markets reckon the Federal Reserve will stop hiking rates before the European Central Bank. That has pushed yields on 10-year German bonds closer to those of U.S. Treasuries. The trend will last in 2023, as sticky euro zone prices and a fiscal splurge pressure Berlin’s debt.

Bank of Japan yields to bond market force

20 Dec 2022

Christmas came early for yen bulls after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda softened his policy of controlling 10-year sovereign bond prices. Though the shift is half-hearted, it’s nevertheless a surrender. As Japan moves on from the era of ultra-cheap money, greater volatility is assured.

Central bankers will shift inflation goalposts

19 Dec 2022

The Federal Reserve, ECB and others insist they’re determined to get price increases back down to 2% a year. Though the target is arbitrary, changing it is tricky. But stubborn inflation means monetary authorities will have to find ways to tolerate rising prices for longer.

Traders will anxiously watch the Bank of Japan

19 Dec 2022

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s retirement and rising inflation may prompt the central bank to revisit ultra-low interest rates. Gyrating bond yields could force domestic investors to dump some of their $6 trln in overseas assets. Though a panic looks unlikely, rebalancing is certain.

Bond-buying scars will open European can of worms

16 Dec 2022

The ECB faces large losses if it keeps hiking interest rates, because of higher payments to banks on 3.9 trln euros of reserves amassed through asset purchases. National central banks will pick up the tab. And governments will bicker on how to share the pain.

ECB, BoE will fight to regain anti-inflation mojo

15 Dec 2022

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England hiked rates by 50 basis points, less than recent jumbo increases. Recession fears, and the central banks’ initial hesitancy, are making investors sceptical of a sustained tightening. Sticky inflation will prove them wrong.

ECB will have to stay laggard in bond-buying exit

13 Dec 2022

The central bank will explain how it will cut its 5 trln euro bond pile on Thursday. Frankfurt’s stimulus reduction plans are behind the Fed and the BoE. It should not rush to catch up. Markets are calm but rising rates and a surge in issuance raise the risk of a tantrum.

Betting against the Bank of Japan

13 Dec 2022

Investors are closely watching for signs that Tokyo might finally start winding down its ultra-low interest rates as inflation rises. In this Exchange episode, Pete Sweeney chats with Sayuri Shirai, former BOJ policy board member, about whether and how Japan might adjust.