Central Banks

Lagarde is not for turning; the ECB might have to

16 Mar 2023

The head of the European Central Bank ignored a transatlantic financial rout and hiked rates by 50 basis points. For her, inflation, not banks’ health, is the real problem. She may soon have to worry about the damage her aggressive policy is inflicting on the euro zone economy.

Credit Suisse’s cash line is just a stopgap

16 Mar 2023

The lender will borrow up to $54 bln from the Swiss National Bank to boost liquidity. The move reassured investors, but won’t necessarily stop clients pulling money. Regulators and the government will need a more permanent solution, but none of them are particularly appealing.

Bad news salvo gives Bank of Japan some cover

16 Mar 2023

The collapse of U.S. lender Silicon Valley Bank knocked down sovereign bond yields. Consumption remains soft, and while Japan Inc is hiking wages by 3% on average, that’s well below inflation. There’s nothing to cheer, but it takes pressure off the BOJ to adjust rates.

Banking turmoil could help euro doves cry victory

14 Mar 2023

With inflation running hot, the European Central Bank looked set to raise rates by 50 basis points on March 16. The collapse of two US banks flipped the script. As investors fear financial instability, the ECB might go easier and rely on previous hikes to curb consumer prices.

Capital Calls: Ritchie Bros founder regret

13 Mar 2023

Concise views on global finance: The industrial equipment auction company’s $7 bln deal for scrap-yard operator IAA has drawn one last opponent: the company’s own co-founder.

US jobs data can spare Fed rate ratchet

10 Mar 2023

A larger-than-expected gain of 311,000 jobs might stoke inflation-fighters’ fears, but slowing wage growth and returning workers show a labor market in the sweet spot. That gives policymakers weighing further hikes in borrowing costs the opportunity to take a patient approach.

China’s unambitious goals reflect growing worries

9 Mar 2023

The People’s Republic is hoping to deliver 5% GDP growth this year and is creating a new finance watchdog. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss how jitters in real estate could hamper a recovery and how regulatory changes could create bigger problems.

Powell leads markets on a needlessly wild ride

8 Mar 2023

Until February, investors believed the Federal Reserve chair would soon relax his fight against inflation. His Tuesday testimony to the US Senate has left them with the opposite impression. Just because Powell is prepared to bring out the big guns doesn’t mean he will have to.

Fed’s reluctance to go green will cost the Earth

7 Mar 2023

Unlike the European Central Bank, the U.S. Federal Reserve doesn’t want to fight climate change. That’s an expensive mistake. Global spending to hit net-zero emissions could reach $275 trillion by 2050. The Fed’s tools could reduce that price tag and curb future inflation.

China’s new finance watchdog may boost and batter

7 Mar 2023

Beijing is creating a mega regulator that will absorb the banking supervisor and parts of the central bank, just five years after the last rejig. Clipping the wings of the People’s Bank of China may allow more forceful financial stimulus – and tougher crackdowns on bankers.

“No landing” talk leaves stocks in no man’s land

6 Mar 2023

Bond investors worry that strong economic data will keep borrowing costs high. That’s pushed yields on 10-year German debt to an 11-year high. Yet buoyant equity markets are pricing in a dream scenario of faster growth and falling interest rates. They are in for a rude awakening.

ECB’s inflation-fighting hose may have a blockage

20 Feb 2023

The central bank has hiked rates by 3 percentage points since July, pushing up corporate borrowing costs and squeezing demand for credit. Yet firms and households have longer-term debt than in the past. That means tighter monetary policy will take a while to cool the economy.

The big bet against Japan’s new central bank boss

16 Feb 2023

The world’s third largest economy picked Kazuo Ueda to be governor of the Bank of Japan. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the challenges facing this outsider as international investors continue to bet against the BOJ keeping rates low.

Central banks’ inflation fall guy lives Down Under

16 Feb 2023

Philip Lowe’s Reserve Bank of Australia has raised rates less than the U.S. Fed. But soaring mortgage costs, and silly gaffes, have put him on the spot. With more hikes likely and a report due on the RBA’s future, forcing him out would be an easy, if unfair, political win.

How central banks got the inflation crisis wrong

14 Feb 2023

Western policymakers have hiked interest rates by more than 10 percentage points since 2021. Yet prices remain high. In this Exchange podcast, Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, explains how rate-setters failed and what they should do next.

Bank of Japan’s new governor starts on back foot

14 Feb 2023

Academic Kazuo Ueda will replace Haruhiko Kuroda atop the central bank after the first choice demurred. He’s respected but lacks factional support and faces an unpopular prime minister pushing an expensive agenda. His appointment augurs a rocky transition at a delicate time.

Japan’s next central bank chief may rue promotion

13 Feb 2023

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retires in April. His successor’s first task will be to tweak monetary policy without wrecking the $5 trln economy, upending markets or crippling the BOJ’s balance sheet. And that’s just the start of a long to-do list.

How investors can profit from Fed-ECB divergence

7 Feb 2023

As America flirts with a recession, the U.S. central bank is set to stop tightening as interest rates near 5%. That will leave ECB President Christine Lagarde as the West’s most hawkish policymaker. The transatlantic split is an opportunity for traders who bet on European assets.

Britcoin flags promise of cashless world, and risk

7 Feb 2023

The UK plans to make up for being a late e-money adopter by widening access to its digital currency plan. Right now banks are the main way to access physical cash, but online equivalents could be more widely distributed. The business of money could get messy.

Capital Calls: U.S. jobs, Crypto data-miners

3 Feb 2023

Concise views on global finance: Rapid hiring in America has bad and worse consequences; blockchain analytics company Chainalysis is cutting staff, but those tracking crypto crimes, including governments, could use more of its services.