Brexit

UK’s post-Brexit industrial plan lacks ambition

27 Nov 2017

The government has promised to boost research spending, improve education and upgrade infrastructure. Leaving the EU makes this more important, but less affordable. Even if Britain was not breaking from its largest partner, however, the goals would be strangely short of oomph.

Hammond struggles in Brexit straitjacket

22 Nov 2017

The UK budget contained giveaways to homebuyers and the health service, funded by asset sales and accounting fiddles. But bleak growth forecasts limited Chancellor Philip Hammond’s generosity. Weak productivity growth will add to the economic pain of leaving the European Union.

Dutch Brexit red carpet hastens tax race to bottom

22 Nov 2017

The country’s new government plans to slash corporate taxes and cancel a levy on dividends paid overseas. One reason is to lure multinationals unsettled by Britain’s departure from the European Union. It’s an expensive gamble that makes it likelier other nations will follow suit.

Northern Ireland is Brexit’s Gordian knot

17 Nov 2017

Avoiding a hard border in the region is an aim of all sides in the Brexit talks. The least-worst fix is for Europe to treat Northern Ireland the way it does Norway. That’s only possible if pro-UK politicians in Belfast can be made to see the economic necessity.

Hadas: Unintended consequences may be new normal

15 Nov 2017

From Brexit to Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia, the world is full of surprises. But those cheering wrenching change may face further upsets. The UK rejoins the EU, the U.S. president discredits small government, and Saudis become poorer. The next shock may be the rise of dullness.

UK economy will share Theresa May’s pain

13 Nov 2017

The Prime Minister is facing growing challenges to her leadership from the ruling party’s pro- and anti-EU factions. Political disarray increases the risks that leaving the European Union will do serious economic harm. A softer Brexit is growing harder to deliver.

Northern Ireland crisis risks economy and UK unity

2 Nov 2017

Westminster will pass the region’s budget after government talks failed. A return to rule from London is likely. Key reforms will be shelved, growth stall, and sectarian tensions rise. A chaotic Brexit and hard border with the Republic of Ireland may inflame them further.

Lloyds capital gusher suffers regulatory blockage

25 Oct 2017

Robust third-quarter earnings should enable Britain’s largest retail bank to pay a hefty dividend. But increased capital requirements have raised doubts about how much it can distribute. That, along with the sluggish UK economy, puts a question mark over the lender’s valuation.

Heads or tails, Mark Carney loses

17 Oct 2017

British inflation has hit 3 percent, the highest level since 2012. No wonder the Bank of England chief is hinting policy rates may soon rise. Carney’s problem is that he will be criticised for hurting a slow-growing economy if he hikes and accused of inconsistency if he delays.

FirstRand makes punt on post-Brexit housing market

16 Oct 2017

The South African bank has offered 1.1 billion pounds for Britain’s Aldermore. Shares in the mortgage lender had slipped amid concerns about the slowing property market. At 8 times expected 2018 earnings, FirstRand could be getting a bargain – provided bad loans don’t shoot up.

Theresa May embraces “extend and pretend” Brexit

22 Sep 2017

Fifteen months after Britain voted to leave the European Union, the prime minister still has no coherent idea how to deliver it. Her proposal to keep things as they are until 2021 lowers the risk of a chaotic Brexit. If accepted, the temptation will be to delay further.

EU aims torpedo at asset managers’ Brexit defence

19 Sep 2017

Europe’s market regulator may be given new powers to prevent national watchdogs from turning a blind eye to funds that outsource jobs to the UK in the hope of luring business to their shores. London-based funds could face more upheaval than expected after Britain leaves the EU.

What we’ve learned about Brexit so far

19 Sep 2017

Britain’s divorce from the European Union is reaching the critical stage where talks are meant to shift from principle to detail. Progress is being slowed by bickering, technicalities and economic fog. Despite the risk of Brexit fatigue, five clear lessons stand out.

Hadas: EU single economy eases way for separatism

13 Sep 2017

Catalan and Scottish nationalism have bubbled up recently. Besides sentiment, the European Union has played a part. The super-national single market not only provides economic protection, but opens up a new vision of sovereignty. It’s the same idea Brexit fans have rejected.

Campaign for euro zone budget is a distraction

13 Sep 2017

The single currency area needs a way to absorb future economic shocks. But comments from European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker show that a common tax-funded budget would be a stretch. Better to tweak fiscal rules, deepen financial reform and beef up Europe’s bailout fund.

Dixons double whammy is surprise that wasn’t

24 Aug 2017

The UK electronics retailer’s shares fell 30 percent after profit guidance was cut. The main culprits, EU roaming rules and a Brexit-linked consumer slowdown, were known risks. Analysts and the company underestimated their impact. Too much faith in forecasts breeds market jolts.

Provident Financial kneecaps cash-greedy investors

22 Aug 2017

The door-to-door lender slashed its profit forecast, ousted its CEO and is under investigation from the UK authorities. Worse still, the dividend yield just fell from 8 percent to zero. Yield-chasing funds had fair warning the company was living beyond its means.

Britain tries Trojan Horse trade tactic in Ireland

17 Aug 2017

The EU wants the Northern Ireland border issue resolved before the UK’s wider exit terms can be agreed. New proposals from London effectively couch Britain’s trade agenda in concern for the peace process. Having Dublin onside raises the chances of Britain getting what it wants.

UK bank upstarts are already priced for downturn

17 Aug 2017

Shares in buy-to-let lenders, such as Aldermore, have fallen in the past three months due to fears about the housing market. Even if more loans sour, these newcomers can grow earnings by wresting market share from older high-street peers. The drop in their valuation is overdone.

British wage mystery has non-British explanation

16 Aug 2017

The jobless rate has fallen to 4.4 percent, its lowest in over four decades, yet wage growth is tepid. Two things help explain the anomaly: a pool of people on zero-hour contracts available to switch into permanent jobs, and a surprising rise in EU nationals working in the UK.