Brexit

Four lessons of Theresa May’s third Brexit defeat

29 Mar 2019

The prime minister’s deal for leaving the EU is almost certainly dead after parliament rejected it again. A different compromise is feasible but hard to agree. That makes a long delay, and maybe a general election, more likely. But a chaotic departure may still happen.

Brexit extension sharpens Britain’s choices

22 Mar 2019

European Union leaders gave Theresa May two more weeks to agree a plan for leaving the bloc. But they also dangled the possibility of a longer delay. For all the shuffling of dates, Britain’s options remain basically the same as before, including the risk of a chaotic departure.

Britain positions for longer Brexit limbo

12 Mar 2019

After rejecting Theresa May’s deal to leave the European Union for a second time, Britain’s parliament faces difficult choices. Assuming lawmakers also reject leaving without a deal, extending the UK’s membership looks unavoidable. But that will only delay a final decision.

Brexit tips Ireland into economic purgatory

11 Mar 2019

Ten years after a devastating recession, the Emerald Isle is buoyant again. Banks fleeing London jostle with tech firms for Dublin office space. But the risk of a disorderly Brexit is hurting investment and confidence across the Irish Sea – and fuelling fears of renewed violence.

May offers tiny plaster for gaping Brexit wound

4 Mar 2019

The UK government promised 1.6 bln pounds to help poor English towns. It looks like a ploy by PM Theresa May to get her EU withdrawal deal through parliament. But it pales next to aid from Brussels and the investment lost since the country voted to leave Europe.

Delaying tactics could bring Brexit to a head

25 Feb 2019

Theresa May has shunted a vote on her plan to leave the European Union to mid-March. Meanwhile, parliamentarians want to postpone the departure date if no deal is agreed. Threats of procrastination don’t alter Britain’s hard choices, but may help rule out the worst Brexit option.

Viewsroom: Brexit breakups

21 Feb 2019

Foreign carmakers are closing some UK plants as lawmakers defect from both the Labour and ruling Tory parties. How will this affect the looming deadline to quit the EU? Plus: Vegan diets are more than a fad.

UK’s centrist group is far from a Macron moment

18 Feb 2019

The defection of seven left-wing Labour politicians invites comparisons with the political shakeup that propelled the French President to power. But Britain’s political system penalises small parties. The split strengthens PM Theresa May, and may help her Brexit deal.

Nissan’s real Brexit problems have not yet started

4 Feb 2019

The Japanese carmaker’s U-turn on building sports utility vehicles in northeast England owes more to falling demand for diesel engines than Britain’s impending EU exit. Still, a no-deal Brexit would make it nearly impossible for Nissan to justify current levels of UK production.

British parliament opts to run down Brexit clock

30 Jan 2019

The vote to reopen talks with the European Union is unlikely to resolve the impasse. But it will delay the crunch moment for a few more weeks. The risks of Britain leaving without a deal are rising. Hopes lawmakers will intervene to prevent that outcome have suffered a setback.

Cox: Cannabis and impeachment on readers’ minds

28 Jan 2019

When asked which investment would outperform in 2019, participants at our Predictions events around the world chose Canadian weed stocks most over other assets. Most also put the chance of Congress impeaching Trump at 30 pct or higher. Consider some other surprising results.

Markets point to way out of Brexit impasse

16 Jan 2019

Sterling rose and stocks were steady after Theresa May’s defeat in parliament, defying fears of a crash. Assuming the prime minister survives a confidence vote, a softer Brexit or second referendum become more likely. British politics looks messy, but investors’ message is clear.

Brexit defeat will begin process of elimination

15 Jan 2019

Britain’s parliament is set to reject Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal to leave the European Union. The vote will offer few pointers about which alternatives they prefer, but will force politicians to test other ideas. With 73 days to go, their options are rapidly shrinking.

IAG tests EU appetite for destruction

9 Jan 2019

The parent of British Airways and Spain’s Iberia may fall foul of European ownership rules if the UK leaves without a deal, according to the FT. That could force it to sell Iberia. IAG’s best hope is that European states have little to gain from unwinding airline consolidation.

Investors will swap City offices for Euro sheds

27 Dec 2018

Yields on shiny London real estate are on the floor, and Brexit could affect sky-high capital values. Luckily, those looking to invest in property in 2019 have a Plan B. European warehouses are both cheap and likely to gain from an ongoing surge of online commerce.

EU Brexit safety net still means trauma for London

20 Dec 2018

The bloc will allow banks to use UK clearing houses for a year, the minimum to spare $60 trln of swaps being cancelled if Britain can’t agree an exit deal. The temporary waiver also gives Europe a negotiating tool, and forces banks to shift business and staff across the Channel.

Memo to Theresa May: How to save Brexit as well

12 Dec 2018

The prime minister has survived a confidence vote from her party. But her deal to leave the European Union remains in a critical state. Downing Street aides have a bold rescue plan: call a second Brexit referendum. Breakingviews has obtained a copy of their make-believe advice.

Challenge to Theresa May clarifies Brexit endgames

12 Dec 2018

If the Prime Minister is ousted by her party, the resulting turmoil could take Britain closer to a chaotic departure from the European Union. Even if she survives, her Brexit deal will still struggle to get through parliament. Either outcome makes a second referendum more likely.

Breakdown: Brexit maze has four flawed ways out

10 Dec 2018

The Prime Minister’s deal to leave the European Union is on life support after she delayed a crucial vote. Britain faces a baffling array of political options. Despite the confusion, the country essentially has four choices. Breakingviews offers a guide through the labyrinth.

Swiss spat offers Britain glimpse of Brexit future

7 Dec 2018

While UK politicians argue among themselves, the European Union is threatening to restrict share-trading with the Alpine nation over stalled treaty talks. It’s a stark reminder of the limits of sovereignty - and of the EU’s readiness to use regulation as a political weapon.