Brexit

British retailers have leverage over Unilever

13 Oct 2016

The maker of Dove soap wants supermarkets like Tesco to pay more for its goods as the pound weakens. They can’t easily pass that cost on to shoppers. Grocers have two reasons to play tough: Unilever's 15 pct operating margin, and their access to the consumer.

VTB snub only hurts UK if American banks follow

11 Oct 2016

Russia's second largest lender may pull investment bankers from London because of Brexit. But VTB's existing base in Vienna is unlikely to suit other big banks. And the Wall Street giants London would actually miss are unlikely to make big logistical decisions in a hurry.

Hadas: May offers British-style Great Leap Forward

7 Oct 2016

The UK prime minister's "quiet revolution" won't rival Mao Zedong's original in tragedy, but her mix of autocratic politics, nationalistic hope and economic nonsense is eerily reminiscent. A Brexit that offers less free trade and more xenophobia is a recipe for economic decline.

Sterling mayhem gives glimpse into future

7 Oct 2016

A flash crash saw the pound briefly plunge below $1.20 in Asia. Ultra-thin liquidity, computer-driven selling, and maybe even an erroneous "fat finger" trade might explain the speed of the slide. But there is nothing unbelievable about the levels to which sterling fell.

British PM’s attack on QE sends wrong signal

6 Oct 2016

Theresa May has criticised the effects of ultra-low interest rates and promised changes. She's right that monetary policy alone cannot revive growth. If the government wants to boost the economy, the solution isn’t to undermine the Bank of England - but to lift spending.

UK migrant clampdown will be self-defeating

5 Oct 2016

Companies may soon face name-and-shame policies that make it less appealing to hire skilled foreign workers. It's part of Theresa May's plan to cut migrant numbers. This is a harmful option for a country with poor productivity and a deficit of domestic expertise.

Sliding sterling is a long way from a crisis

4 Oct 2016

The pound has fallen to 31-year lows below $1.28. That’s hardly a disaster. Buoyant UK bonds and stocks suggest there are few concerns about Britain’s hefty budget and current account deficits. It would take a much steeper drop to worry Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

Britain starts Brexit; now so might banks

3 Oct 2016

The UK's two-year process to leave the European Union will kick off by the end of March. Financial groups wondering whether to move operations now have the same uncertainty as before, only with a hard 2019 deadline. That could prompt the start of the big relocation.

Capita faces trifecta of debt, delay and doubt

29 Sep 2016

The UK outsourcing company is finding out investors don’t like surprises in a usually predictable industry. Delays in a big Transport for London contract and post-Brexit jitters could see profit before tax be 13 percent below its target, and make its balance sheet look strained.

Japan has most to lose from global trade backlash

26 Sep 2016

The country is begging America to ratify the TPP trade pact and urging Britain to handle Brexit carefully. The desperate pleas reflect Japan's outsized reliance on international trade. TPP also helps Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shake up the domestic economy, especially in farming.

Dear candidate: a letter to David Cameron

13 Sep 2016

The former prime minister is leaving the world of politics. His predecessor Gordon Brown now advises fund manager Pimco; Tony Blair before him took a role at JPMorgan. Cameron, who instigated Britain’s referendum on leaving the EU, may find the job market a harsher place.

Carney guessing game feeds bond market distortion

13 Sep 2016

The Bank of England has revealed corporate bonds eligible for its 10 billion pound buying spree. Its requirement that companies make a material contribution to the country still throws up some anomalies. Second-guessing the central bank makes capital markets less efficient.

Better to fly Europe’s airlines than buy them

12 Sep 2016

Fuel prices have fallen, but that has incentivised European carriers to keep too many planes airborne. Demand is too weak to meet the supply, which means ticket prices are set to fall, and with them airlines’ profitability.

Banks ask for Brexit clarity they can’t have

8 Sep 2016

Big financial groups want Britain’s chancellor to say what kind of settlement he wants after an EU exit. That’s understandable: they want to make plans. But it wouldn’t be smart for Philip Hammond to be too specific ahead of what will essentially be a poker game with EU peers.

UK economy enjoys pre-Brexit sweet spot

5 Sep 2016

The services sector has rebounded from its post-EU vote slump, as did manufacturing. Recession may be dodged this year because Britain is getting the benefits of Brexit without the drawbacks. Faltering investment and rising price pressures are storing up problems for the future.

May’s migrant musings a cautious positive for City

5 Sep 2016

The UK prime minister has cast doubt on the efficacy of a so-called points-based immigration system post-Brexit. That sounds good for UK financial firms hit by restrictions on non-EU workers. The catch is Theresa May has little choice but to get net migration down somehow.

Warsaw charm offensive shows London’s strengths

30 Aug 2016

Poland hopes to woo investment banks from the UK to its capital city. Credit Suisse, Goldman and BNP Paribas each have 300 or more staff in-country. But most are IT support, not revenue creators. The point is that financial hubs are built on far more than low costs.

Trump and Farage have one big thing in common

25 Aug 2016

Brexit cheerleader Nigel Farage says Americans may defy the elite by voting for Donald Trump, as Brits did by opting to leave the EU. Farage, like Trump, was loose with facts but accurately gauged public anger. Betting markets, investors and pollsters ought to heed the lessons.

Jimmy Choo works hard to get just an inch

25 Aug 2016

The luxury shoemaker’s sales grew 9.2 percent in the first half and operating profitability improved. Its shares still trade at a discount to peers, hit by Brexit worries and exposure to one product. Despite good growth prospects, investors remain reluctant to toe the line.

UK housing crisis jars with builders’ fat returns

24 Aug 2016

In a normal market, Persimmon’s 36 pct return on capital would get competed away. Instead, sclerotic planning and smaller rivals’ limited access to finance act as barriers to entry. Builders’ fat returns could be vulnerable if the new UK government decides to take bold action.