Brexit

London bankers may dodge one-way trip to Frankfurt

25 Jan 2017

UK-based bankers accompanied by EU colleagues might still be able to advise continental clients after Britain leaves the bloc. The ruse might allow financial institutions to keep more staff in London. But both national and European laws would have to remain accommodating.

Brexit sceptics win battle but will lose the war

24 Jan 2017

Pro-EU campaigners succeeded in their quest to give parliament a say on triggering Brexit. The catch is that Prime Minister Theresa May will probably win a vote. Besides, her opponents would struggle to prove suboptimal outcomes like EEA membership are better than May's vision.

UK industrial strategy needs to go big or go home

23 Jan 2017

Theresa May is right to try and revive Britain's industry - not least because its financial services cash cow is en route to the slaughterhouse. Infrastructure, exchange rates and regional stimulus would be helpful priorities. Otherwise the squeakiest wheels may get the grease.

Calm words won’t stop bankers leaving London

20 Jan 2017

The City is a big source of UK tax revenue and the European Union's main capital market. Both sides have good reasons for a sensible post-Brexit agreement on financial services. Unless they first extend the timetable, banks will not wait for a deal before moving staff.

Premier Foods’ problems are home baked

18 Jan 2017

The Mr Kipling owner said full-year profit would be 10 pct lower as sales disappoint. Prices for ingredients are on the up, which can partly be blamed on Brexit. But the food manufacturer has more bread-and-butter issues - high debt and supermarkets' new promotion tactics.

Theresa May takes a Brexit big bath

17 Jan 2017

New company bosses often take major writedowns to give themselves a fresh start and flatter future earnings. In saying Britain could walk away from the EU’s single market, the prime minister is on the same page. Investors can now use the clean-break scenario as their base case.

Britain’s Brexit cliff: how big is the drop?

16 Jan 2017

As Theresa May prepares to reveal details of the UK’s post-EU objectives, the risk of a clean break in 2019 has risen. Such an outcome is suboptimal. But Britain’s negotiating position is far from hopeless, and the scale of the pain from “hard Brexit” can be overstated.

Sterling crash mystery lacks suspect – and victims

13 Jan 2017

There was no single trigger for the sudden 9 percent drop in the value of the pound on Oct. 7, a committee of central bankers has found. Big banks avoided major losses, and other markets were unaffected. Investors will have to learn to live with sharp but short-lived gyrations.

Regional pain makes UK consumer credit risks real

6 Jan 2017

The BoE's chief economist says a merely moderate rise in housing finance means consumer borrowing risks are contained. But unemployment is up in Scotland and northern England, where faster-growing personal loans matter more. Banks' pricing competition could worsen the reckoning.

Next’s retail crisis has distinctly British twist

4 Jan 2017

The clothing chain warned pre-tax profit may fall 14 percent this year. As well as Next's own problems, that's down to Brexit-related inflation, higher business rates and wage bills. British shoppers have also embraced online retail more readily than in some other markets.

Investment banks’ next trade will be EU education

30 Dec 2016

No European city has as many international school places as London. That’s a problem for firms thinking of asking staff to move their families out of the UK capital following the Brexit referendum. The solution will be for banks to get into the education business themselves.

Lloyds’ MBNA swoop works – unless Brexit bites

20 Dec 2016

The British lender is to pay Bank of America 1.9 bln pounds for its UK credit cards arm. Assuming cost savings materialise, Lloyds is bulking up cheaply. Absent hits from a market probe, or a surge in unemployment when the UK quits the EU, dividends should be largely unaffected.

Brexit could give Madrid its day in the sun

15 Dec 2016

Unlike Paris or Frankfurt, the city is not a top contender to attract financiers dislocated by Brexit. But Spain’s capital has attractions, like low costs and a friendly tax regime, that could draw in other sectors. Vitamin-D starved corporate refugees may take the bait.

Brexit transition deal offers Lloyd’s scant cover

15 Dec 2016

The London insurance market is pushing ahead with the launch of a subsidiary that could conduct EU business after Britain leaves the bloc. Lloyd’s of London is not waiting to see whether politicians can secure extended access to the single market. Banks may take a similar view.

Brexit transition may ease not remove uncertainty

13 Dec 2016

UK Chancellor Philip Hammond sensibly wants banks to have continued access to Europe's single market after Britain's departure to protect financial stability. That would give them longer to make alternative plans - but also risks prolonging doubts about the final arrangements.

City of London should woo not threaten on Brexit

6 Dec 2016

A bad-case Brexit might demolish some of the financial sector's record 71 bln pounds in tax contributions, outlined in a new report. Other bits of the economy could also suffer from the fallout. But bankers might gain more from an upbeat case for their salvation.

Brexit Supreme Court case is a sideshow

5 Dec 2016

The UK's top court may force the government to give parliament a say on triggering Brexit. Yet this wouldn't necessarily change Prime Minister Theresa May's plans much. Two related legal matters - including whether the exit process is reversible - might provide firmer resistance.

Richmond sharpens up Britain’s Brexit divide

2 Dec 2016

The victory of a pro-EU liberal in a UK local election hints at a potential swing back to the centre. Stronger opposition could keep the government honest as it negotiates Brexit. Yet Richmond is wealthy, and voted strongly to stay in Europe. More clarity doesn't mean more unity.

Brexit transition headache has EEA painkiller fix

28 Nov 2016

UK courts could rule that Britain can stay part of the European Economic Area when it quits the EU.  If so, ongoing single market access could numb Brexit's impact. If lawmakers also pledged to quit the EEA in, say, 2025, the more rational Brexiteers might even support it.

Britain’s productivity fund is a long shot

24 Nov 2016

As in other Western countries, output per worker is growing less quickly than before the financial crisis. There is little agreement about the reasons for the slowdown, however. That means the UK government's new 23 billion pound productivity fund is throwing darts at a board.