Brexit

Britain’s Brexit bill is reassuringly expensive

8 Mar 2017

Lawmakers think the UK can legally dodge an EU exit liability of potentially 60 bln euros. The trouble is, refusing to pay makes it unlikely Britain can get a favourable deal. Moreover, such squabbling undermines Brexit supporters’ case that leaving the EU has a net benefit.

UK retailers get a spring reality check

7 Mar 2017

Rising food and fuel costs are forcing shoppers to spend less on clothing and other discretionaries. That is bad news for stores that are already having to cut prices to attract business. With their own costs going up, retailers are about to be squeezed on multiple fronts.

Brexit bravado extends to UK challenger banks

7 Mar 2017

UK lender Shawbrook has spurned an 827 mln pound bid from two buyout firms offering a decent premium. That's fine if it hits targets set last May that pledged healthy growth and high returns. But it places a lot of faith in Britain's economy after it leaves the European Union.

Nationality of Vauxhall’s owner is a red herring

6 Mar 2017

The sale of GM’s European operations to French carmaker PSA Group has caused fresh concern over its plants in the UK. Yet irrespective of the owner, the key risk for automotive jobs in Britain is Brexit. A stronger Peugeot may even have more patience with Vauxhall than GM.

Northern Ireland vote sends Brexit warning shot

4 Mar 2017

Nationalist party Sinn Fein made surprise gains in snap elections, buoyed by discontent with the ruling unionist DUP. That puts the duo, who must govern together, on a more equal but confrontational footing. The result may be a bumpier path for Britain’s EU exit negotiations.

Drugmakers pose Brexit Britain withdrawal risk

3 Mar 2017

Pharma groups aren’t publicly threatening to pull staff out of the UK. But they could. Britain is a laggard in healthcare investment, and Brexit gives them negotiating power - especially after Prime Minister Theresa May’s gushing endorsement of the industry.

Northern Ireland may bolster case for own spinoff

2 Mar 2017

If Thursday’s elections produce a stalemate, London may have to rule the thorny region directly. The 9 bln pound cost per year of propping up the region is likely to grow after Brexit, but a united Ireland is problematic too. The north is a prize no one wants.

LSE and Deutsche Boerse get a gift neither wants

27 Feb 2017

The exchange merger looks sunk after European regulators demanded a sale of an LSE trading platform. That’s not so bad - especially for LSE, which might find suitors elsewhere once Britain’s future is clearer. Besides, investors had only priced in a sliver of the deal’s benefits.

Local election results mark peak for Theresa May

24 Feb 2017

The prime minister’s Conservatives confirmed their lead over rivals Labour with a landmark by-election victory. Acrimonious Brexit negotiations and squeezed incomes will test May’s popularity in the coming year, though. Not calling an early general election could prove a mistake.

EU veto could do LSE and Deutsche Boerse a favour

23 Feb 2017

It's a year since the two exchanges proposed joining forces. The European Commission will soon decide if the tie-up is anti-competitive. A thumbs-down would spare both sides the need to navigate post-Brexit political waters, and force them to do the sensible thing: wait.

Unilever exposes holes in UK industrial strategy

20 Feb 2017

A takeover of the Anglo-Dutch consumer giant would have tested the prime minister’s vow to defend sectors and workers from foreign buyers. Even though it’s now off, May lacks the tools to deliver on the pledge. Her party would need to ditch its scorn of French protectionism.

Rolls-Royce is on a slow flight to recovery

14 Feb 2017

The UK engine maker’s record 2016 loss of 4.6 bln pounds masks a better-than-expected underlying performance. Turnaround boss Warren East has limited scope to deliver more positive surprises. New engines are sold at a loss, and revenue for servicing them will take time to rise.

Euro risks replacing sterling in FX doghouse

10 Feb 2017

The battered pound has won a reprieve as post-Brexit growth is proving more resilient than investors had anticipated. By contrast, the euro's star is waning before France's unpredictable elections. Options prices signal that the single currency could become traders' next victim.

Viewsroom: Keeping banks in the sin bin

9 Feb 2017

President Trump wants to "do a number" on post-crisis financial reforms, but overturning them will be tough. Paris emerges as the top city for financial types after Brexit. Plus, why a legal brief filed by Google and others against Trump’s immigration ban is such an unusual move.

Investment drought is about more than spreadsheets

9 Feb 2017

Companies’ reluctance to invest is one of the main conundrums facing policymakers. A new Bank of England survey suggests old habits and crisis memories play a bigger role than any shortage of finance. It’s another reminder that loose monetary policy can only achieve so much.

Cox: Politics biggest enemy of Paris Brexit hopes

7 Feb 2017

The City of Lights has been on a charm offensive with London’s financial castaways. And the pitch made to dozens of U.S., Chinese and Japanese firms – not to mention French expats – is convincing. What is less persuasive is the complacency around the Republic’s presidential race.

Ireland could join Britain in EU departure lounge

6 Feb 2017

Dublin’s unequivocally pro-Brussels stance may be tested if politics unmoors it from key trading partners like the UK and U.S. A tough Brexit deal, along with an inflated EU budget bill caused by tax inversions, could raise tricky questions about Ireland’s true interests.

UK breezily gives City its very own stress test

2 Feb 2017

Britain will aim for “the freest possible” trade in financial services after it leaves the EU, its White Paper says. It’s as if the sector is an immaterial contributor to the UK tax take and services surplus. The government is either foolhardy, or showing impressive sang-froid.

Britain’s global trade dream is second-best option

27 Jan 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May is hoping her meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump will open up a trade deal with the United States. China and others may follow. But the resulting boost to UK exports will probably be too small to replace those it risks losing by leaving the EU.

Trump can teach May about the art of the deal

25 Jan 2017

A trade pact between the UK and the United States could be helpful to both. The faster it comes, the less comprehensive it would be. Yet what an accord between the two leaders might lack in scope would be made up for by the creation of a clear loser: Europe.