Brexit

Viewsroom: The UK goes to the polls

6 Jun 2017

The Brits are about to elect a new government that’ll take the country out of the EU. Brexit, though, has taken a back seat in the campaign to deadly attacks in London and Manchester – and growing concerns about how the new masters of Whitehall will deal with social welfare.

British voters are sleepwalking to painful Brexit

6 Jun 2017

Prime Minister Theresa May called the election to strengthen her hand in negotiating the country’s departure from the European Union. But the political debate has barely touched on the trade-offs involved. The electorate is ill-prepared for the consequences that may follow.

Ravenous investors wolf down fintech IPO scraps

26 May 2017

Financial software group Alfa Financial is floating in the biggest UK offering this year by company value. The pricing looked rich to start with, but investors have since bid it up even higher. Blame a general lack of big listings of late, especially for the fintech-enthused.

UK Labour Party’s soft Brexit would still be hard

26 May 2017

The opposition is gaining in polls ahead of Britain’s June 8 vote. Leader Jeremy Corbyn is more pro-immigration than Tory Theresa May. Yet he is less pro-EU than he looks, and is less likely to be business-friendly – which could allow European negotiators to be tougher.

Theresa May’s manifesto leaves Brexit wiggle room

18 May 2017

Britain’s Tory party will slash migration and quit the EU without a deal if need be should it win a June 8 election. But its leader has left herself room to make Brexit very hard or relatively soft. That’s artful, but ensures adherents of one or the other will be disappointed.

Britain’s joyless job boom is nothing to celebrate

17 May 2017

A record three of every four working-age Britons is employed. But prices are rising faster than wages, and a post-Brexit crackdown on immigration threatens to limit further expansions in the workforce. That makes declining productivity an even bigger cause for alarm.

British property shows signs of wear and tear

17 May 2017

British Land’s full-year earnings increased 7.4 percent and leasing activity is surprisingly strong. Tweaks to the group’s portfolio should offset Brexit pressures. Still, shorter leases, lower values and a step-up in disposals are a better indicator of what’s to come.

Labour’s risky UK manifesto requires Brexit context

16 May 2017

Britain’s opposition party has outlined tax rises for companies and the rich to pay for higher spending. Potential payers could get around them. Yet what Labour is proposing isn’t that much more risky than the “hard Brexit” the ruling Conservative party may deliver.

Western banks are a poor home for Asian billions

16 May 2017

If sovereign funds are meant to generate superior returns over generations, the sale of UBS shares by Singapore’s GIC is logical. Banks’ futures are clouded by technology, disintermediation and populism. Those still building stakes, like China’s HNA, may have other goals in mind.

EasyJet gives lesson in counter-cyclical aviation

16 May 2017

As European airlines engage in a costly battle for market share, the UK no-frills carrier is buying ever-larger aircraft. EasyJet’s cost advantage and the impending demise of weak rivals suggest boss Carolyn McCall is right to look beyond the short-term clouds.

What’s Britain’s real Brexit bill?

9 May 2017

Negotiators may demand the UK pay 100 bln euros as part of an orderly EU exit. Avoiding this would mean leaving without a trade deal, which would hit future growth. This Breakingviews calculator estimates how much output and tax revenue Britain stands to lose in a chaotic Brexit.

Macron has bigger fish to fry than Brexit

8 May 2017

Negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU will no doubt guzzle the incoming French president’s time and energy. But knitting the euro zone closer together will absorb his political capital. Punishing or pleasing the UK will be an outcome not an objective.

Britain’s Brexit bill is worth the money

8 May 2017

An orderly departure from the EU may cost the UK as much as 100 billion euros. A chaotic exit that permanently lowered the growth rate of its 1.9 trillion pound economy would be much more expensive. Better to hand over a hefty sum if it means avoiding that outcome.

Make Britain’s Brexit bill performance-related

3 May 2017

The EU may demand 100 bln euros from the UK for leaving the bloc. Some Britons want to pay nothing. Investment bankers ease impasses between companies by making part of the cost contingent on future performance. Linking the bill to UK GDP might enable both sides to claim victory.

French savers are a good bulwark against Le Pen

3 May 2017

Marine Le Pen’s anti-euro rhetoric will be a liability in Sunday’s election. Some undecided voters may share the far-right leader’s distrust of the EU. But ditching the single currency would be punitive for a country with the euro zone’s third-highest savings rate.

EU clearing spat epitomises perils of hard Brexit

2 May 2017

Brussels may try to restrict euro-denominated clearing in the UK, a report says. European regulators have long fretted over the fact that most of it occurs outside the euro area. A compromise is more than possible – but is harder to achieve if Britain leaves the single market.

Theresa May has a way out of UK pension pickle

28 Apr 2017

The prime minister is dithering over whether to keep guaranteeing above-inflation hikes to pensioners. The triple-lock is nonsensical, inequitable and unfit for an era of Brexit and stagnant wages. May has the political capital to adopt a fairer single-lock, tied to earnings.

European market reboot depends on more than Macron

24 Apr 2017

Stocks and the euro rose sharply amid relief that the French centrist made it to the second round of presidential elections. The gap between Gallic and German bond yields remains wider than six months ago, though. That reflects lingering political risks to the single currency.

UK election will test markets’ Brexit optimism

19 Apr 2017

Investors think Britain has a better chance of avoiding a damaging EU exit because Theresa May has called an early vote, a Breakingviews index based on asset prices shows. That view could be challenged by a campaign that will force the prime minister to clarify her policies.

Theresa May cashes in at peak political valuation

18 Apr 2017

Calling an election on June 8 is the British prime minister’s best chance of securing a personal mandate. Her opponents are weak or divided and the pain of leaving the European Union has yet to bite. A big majority will give her scope to take a tougher stand in Brexit talks.