Bonds

Capital Calls: Buffett’s Berkshire successor

4 Oct 2022

Concise views on global finance: The Omaha oracle owns $100 bln of stock in his conglomerate. His potential successor Greg Abel’s purchase of $68 mln of stock last week – after selling shares in a subsidiary for $870 mln in June – is too small a move toward Buffett’s standard.

Tax U-turn leaves UK’s Truss with credibility gap

3 Oct 2022

Prime Minister Liz Truss’ move to scrap a tax cut for high earners lowered government bond yields and boosted the pound. But her policies still rely on unfunded giveaways and rosy growth hopes. Investors’ loss of confidence from the crisis makes her agenda even harder to achieve.

“Help to Refi” could be UK’s next financial wheeze

30 Sep 2022

Prime Minister Liz Truss’s rash tax cuts have rattled the government bond market. She needs to attract investors and bring yields back down. The “Help to Buy” scheme to subsidise mortgages offers a template. Breakingviews imagines a fictional adviser taking up the challenge.

BoE remedy can only be partial cure for UK ills

29 Sep 2022

The UK central bank launched $70 bln of bond-buying after PM Liz Truss’s budget triggered market chaos. That has stemmed a financial crisis among indebted pension funds. Stopping the market exerting economic pain requires a fiscal rethink from politicians, not more BoE action.

BoE’s bond-buying U-turn is worth the risk

28 Sep 2022

The Bank of England will buy UK sovereign debt and delayed sales of its $915 bln bond portfolio due to market “dysfunction”. The danger is Governor Andrew Bailey looks too close to the government whose tax cuts caused the turmoil. Yet calmer markets make it easier to hike rates.

Investors strangle UK’s pro-growth budget at birth

26 Sep 2022

Government bond yields soared and the pound slumped following Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s 45 bln pound tax cut package. Higher interest rates will depress demand while costlier energy imports will further weaken the public finances. That risks cancelling out any boost to growth.

Italy’s right-wing winners inherit poison chalice

26 Sep 2022

Nationalist Giorgia Meloni, EU-sceptic Matteo Salvini and convicted former PM Silvio Berlusconi scored an election victory. Despite campaign unity, they disagree on sanctions and spending. The rivalries risk undermining the high-debt nation’s ability to tackle its energy crisis.

India’s bond inclusion will be overdue and timely

26 Sep 2022

The sovereign debt of the world’s fifth-largest economy may be added to JPMorgan’s emerging market index, offsetting Russia’s exclusion. It’s a step towards prising open a $1 trln market, and a feather in India’s cap. But there are reasons it took so long.

Italy’s first female leader, Amazon’s monopoly

22 Sep 2022

Far-right leader Giorgia Meloni is favourite to become prime minister after Sunday’s election. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate how she will handle Rome’s debt, which is expected to reach 148% of GDP. And: the online retail giant’s antitrust battle.

Petrodollar rush may disappoint Western financiers

20 Sep 2022

In prior energy booms, like in the 1970s, the proceeds wound up in U.S. banks and bonds. OPEC’s $907 bln haul in 2022 is smaller, and winners like Saudi Arabia need cash to pivot away from oil. Bankers may not see a developed world equities and debt bonanza on the same scale.

Capital Calls: Chinese property bonds

16 Aug 2022

Concise views on global finance: Beijing plans to guarantee new domestic fixed-income issues by half a dozen homebuilders, but that’s hardly enough to revive overall demand for housing.

Capital Calls: Uber’s cash starts to flow

2 Aug 2022

Concise views on global finance: The $56 billion car-hailing service is growing rapidly and has started generating positive cash flow. It’s still overvalued, though.

Ukraine needs hard cash more than debt relief

21 Jul 2022

The war-torn country needs $9 bln a month to cover its costs. Its central bank is running out of reserves. A bond payment freeze will help, but only at the margin. Western allies need to launch a coordinated aid effort to keep the country afloat.

ECB risks forgetting 1990s currency crisis lessons

18 Jul 2022

President Christine Lagarde may soon unveil the central bank’s tool to control sovereign bond yields. Struggles with semi-fixed exchange rates before the euro offer a cautionary tale. To fend off speculative attack, authorities are best off keeping targets and methods vague.

Chinese stimulus requires morale booster

8 Jul 2022

Local governments may front-load $220 bln of bond sales to help fill an estimated $1 trln funding gap. Infrastructure outlays have been restrained so far; officials worry wasteful investment will hurt their careers. Getting them to spend means reducing punishment for bad choices.

Italy starts countdown to risky life after Draghi

5 Jul 2022

The 5-Star party may bring down Mario Draghi’s coalition government. A crisis would hurt growth and raise the chances of a less EU-friendly executive. Worse, market jitters due to rising political uncertainty may complicate the European Central Bank’s efforts to tame bond yields.

Cosseted bank bondholders need to feel more pain

4 Jul 2022

Credit Suisse’s repayment of a hybrid bond at its first call despite the higher cost of replacing it highlights flaws in the $212 bln market. Post-2008 reforms were meant to make such capital permanent, but lenders fear angering investors. Bank watchdogs can take a harder stance.

Capital Calls: Russian default, Inflation and debt

27 Jun 2022

Concise views on global finance: Moscow defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in over 100 years, leaving bondholders in limbo; the Bank for International Settlements wants rates raised “quickly and decisively”, but is also worried about higher borrowing costs.

Investors need to learn to ride inflation cycle

23 Jun 2022

Bonds and shares are tumbling as prices soar, just as in the 1970s. The experience of that decade suggests value stocks, commodities and safe-haven currencies offer the best protection, says Edward Chancellor. But wild swings in inflation can still catch markets off-guard.

Lagarde will struggle to do a Mario Draghi

21 Jun 2022

Euro zone bond markets have stabilised since the ECB president pledged to buy bonds. That raises the chance that investors cowed by her Italian predecessor’s promises won’t need her to intervene much. Just as well, given interest rates and political risks make it harder to do.