Biotechnology

UnitedHealth to buy Oxford Health for $4.9bn

27 Apr 2004

Consolidation among US health management companies is starting to turn the screws on drugs and other healthcare inflation. This trend still has far to go, and the model may eventually spread to Europe.

French dirigisme overpowers the market

26 Apr 2004

The French government has got its way by securing Aventis s sale to Sanofi rather than Switzerland s Novartis. But a Novartis deal would have delivered greater value. This is a bad day for the market.

Winner in Aventis saga is likely to be a loser

23 Apr 2004

Novartis looks set to triumph in the battle for Aventis. But it will destroy value. Meanwhile, the likely losers Sanofi and Aventis itself will be the big winners in terms of value creation.

Sanofi more tempting than risky

22 Apr 2004

Fancy the idea of a fastgrowing stock which may be taken over, but which is trading on only 16 times earnings? Investing in SanofiSynthelabo certainly has its risks. But the balance between risk and reward has shifted in its favour.

Roche turns in healthy first quarter performance

21 Apr 2004

The Swiss drugs group is stripping sales from competitors and has recently launched two potential blockbusters. Better still, margins look set to rise even faster. The shares deserve a higher premium.

Novartis would pay for defying France

20 Apr 2004

The Swiss company said it would not bid for Aventis without Paris neutrality. Paris has both the methods and motive to hurt Novartis if the group defies its wishes.

Pfizer promises free Viagra

14 Apr 2004

The drugs company is taking a leaf from the humble coffee shop and plans to give users one free pill for every six ordered. But the marketing falls short of brilliance. Here are some better suggestions.

France struggles to make its mind up over Aventis

13 Apr 2004

First the industry minister appeared to change the government's position towards neutrality. Now the prime minister has slapped him down. Signs of a power struggle offer shareholders a ray of hope. But it is a slim one.

Aventis board proposes poison pill

4 Apr 2004

The pill would insure Aventis shareholders against the main risk in Sanofi s hostile bid. That's an interesting concept. But the pill would allow the board to turn down an improved offer from Sanofi. Shareholders have no reason to give it this freedom.

Novartis best match for Aventis

2 Apr 2004

The Swiss drugs company could create more value in a merger than Sanofi as it could cut more costs. An offer of E66 per share would be 17% higher than Sanofi s bid and still leave value for the Swiss.

Aventis should call Paris’ bluff

29 Mar 2004

The FrancoGerman drugs group should invite Novartis of Switzerland into takeover talks. That would put President Chirac, who is backing a rival bid from Sanofi, on the spot.

Paris plays with more subtle form of control

25 Mar 2004

Novartis has offered to be Aventis white knight if the French government remains neutral. But Paris has played the part of a clever prison guard beating up the white knight in private but leaving no official mark of its actions.

Novartis wrongfoots France over Aventis

23 Mar 2004

The Swiss company hasn't heeded hints to back off. It says it will be a white knight if Paris stays neutral. This will force Paris to take an explicitly anticompetitive stance if it wishes to preserve a French champion.

Novartis may merge with Aventis in order to demerge

22 Mar 2004

The Swiss drugs company may spin off its huge generics business if it buys Aventis, according to a report. The split would create value, even if it poses some difficult questions over which drugs belong where.

French PM muscles into Aventis bid battle

17 Mar 2004

Emotive talk about the need to protect the country from bioterrorism seems designed to scare off foreign white knights like Novartis. The arguments look bogus and nationalistic. Politicians should stay out of the battle and let investors decide what deal creates most value.

Aventis right to worry about value of Sanofi bid

4 Mar 2004

A study suggests that Sanofi's biggest drug doesn't work in combination with the world's best selling pill. Concerns about Plavix's patent have already rattled Aventis shareholders. This adds to the uncertainty.

Roche’s new cancer drug a potential blockbuster

27 Feb 2004

Investors have got that message sort of. But they still seem to be seriously underestimating Avastin's potential. Estimates of $1bn$2bn a year in peak sales look low. It could easily be double that.

Hoechst disappears. Bayer, unfortunately, won’t.

26 Feb 2004

The two German conglomerates were nearly twins prior to Hoechst s breakup in 1998. The breakup may not have created value. But Bayer s dithering has destroyed more than half its worth in six years.

Sanofi should scrap double voting rights

20 Feb 2004

If Aventis is taken over by Sanofi, its shareholders will own 49% of share capital, but only 39% of the vote due to double voting. Eliminating the scheme would raise Sanofi s stock price, and make the bid more attractive.

Aventis should consider crown jewel defence

18 Feb 2004

If Aventis could secure a premium price for, say, its cardiovascular drugs, that would make Sanofi sweat. It would either have to increase its own hostile bid substantially or retreat with its tail between its legs.