Beverages

Drink giants’ risky new plan: quantity not quality

1 Oct 2024

Liquor makers like $80 bln Diageo until recently focused on ‘premiumisation’, where customers consume less alcohol but pay up for fancy brands. With punters feeling the pinch, that strategy looks dicey. Yet flogging more cheap booze is optically awkward and financially painful.

Franco-US food M&A is $10 bln recipe for heartburn

26 Sep 2024

Sodexo, the $13 bln caterer, is eyeing US rival Aramark according to Bloomberg. The returns look low, absent huge cost savings, and a cash deal would leave a debt headache. Recent iffy takeovers in the business-services sector show that scale isn’t always worth the risk.

New consumer CEOs start life in the slow lane

24 Sep 2024

Nike joined Campari, Nestlé and Starbucks in abruptly ditching its boss. There’s plenty of scope for the new CEOs to remedy their predecessors’ missteps. But a common thread at the four groups is slowing sales amid consumer weakness, making the turnaround jobs much tougher.

Seven & i deal will test Japan’s financial renewal

5 Sep 2024

Couche-Tard’s takeover interest in the 7-Eleven owner is a pivotal moment for the country’s efficiency drive. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain why Tokyo ought to wait to see how the target reacts before opining, and how a deal could easily turn hostile.

Nestlé’s CEO switch serves up unappetising menu

23 Aug 2024

The $275 bln consumer-goods group is replacing its boss of eight years, Mark Schneider, with insider Laurent Freixe. Weak sales and a sliding valuation probably justify the abrupt change. But investors will fear it heralds a more painful turnaround than they previously expected.

Big Beer’s stumbles leave investors ice cold

14 Aug 2024

Heineken shares are down after it disappointed investors hoping for a sport-fuelled profit party. Rival Carlsberg’s valuation has fallen due to a $4 bln soft drinks takeover. For CEOs, emerging markets growth and deals in the right areas are the only way to add fizz to stocks.

Diageo’s succession hangover has fuzzy duration

30 Jul 2024

The $67 bln drinkmaker’s 2023 promotion of CEO Debra Crew was seamless. But Diageo’s share price has slumped since, and some of the problems are self-inflicted. Crew’s future may hinge on a rebound of US consumer sentiment, rather than any bold change of strategy.

Consumer titans have Covid-era issue, in reverse

26 Jul 2024

In the pandemic, Nestlé and Unilever’s higher prices were accompanied by falling sales. Now they are tempting consumers to buy more products, but prices are harder to budge. One issue hasn’t changed: the giants’ vulnerability to cheaper and healthier eating habits.

Booze-free beverages are no small beer

11 Jul 2024

Carlsberg’s $4 bln deal to buy soft-drinks maker Britvic is just the latest foray by a big brewer into serving the alcohol-averse. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss whether it’s a seismic tobacco-like shift or a frothy attempt to fizz up profit margins.

EU’s China trade weak spots hide in plain sight

9 Jul 2024

Beijing may retaliate after Brussels imposed tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Of the 5,000 product groups the People’s Republic imports from the EU, many are too crucial or too small to bother with. But luxury goods, petrol cars and some foods are plausible targets.

Big Beer’s low-alcohol Plan B has too much froth

9 Jul 2024

Carlsberg, AB InBev and Asahi have set toppy targets for their teetotal products. Health concerns and Gen Z’s aversion to alcohol imply that’s a safe bet. But at $13 bln the market is still puny – and if the likes of Coca-Cola muscle in there will be a smaller barrel to share.

Moutai rout is China’s latest confidence crisis

9 Jul 2024

Falling liquor prices have lopped $60 bln off the market cap of the world’s most valuable distiller, once viewed as resilient in the face of sluggish consumption. The sudden sell-off shows just how fragile sentiment in the world’s second-largest economy has become.

Britvic can swerve Carlsberg dilution

21 Jun 2024

The soft drinks maker rebuffed a $4 bln cash deal from the Danish beer giant. Carlsberg wants to boost its no-alcohol business, so may yet return with a more generous offer. But Britvic’s cocktail of geographic expansion and low-sugar drinks means it can also grow on its own.

Big Macs are pricing out American shoppers

23 May 2024

The driving force of the world’s largest economy, US consumers, may be buckling under higher costs on everything from lattes to burgers. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate whether Main Street stalwarts like Starbucks or McDonald’s face a reckoning.

JAB’s Buffett impression is a work in progress

22 May 2024

The private European conglomerate, whose $50 bln portfolio includes Pret A Manger and Panera Bread, hired an executive for an insurance push. It makes sense as a funding source, as investors from Warren Buffett to KKR and Apollo proved. The snag is JAB’s patchy investment record.

China tests EU resolve on export trade fight

14 May 2024

France’s Emmanuel Macron got little to show from President Xi Jinping’s European tour this month. In this Exchange podcast, MERICS expert Grzegorz Stec explains the difficulty of managing ties with Beijing and why balancing risk and business opportunity is so tricky.

Heineken dilutes beer’s merrier future

14 Feb 2024

The $54 bln group’s higher prices led to lower volumes, at odds with Carlsberg’s cheerier numbers. Diageo reckons drinkers are shifting from spirits to beer, which should help brewers. Still, without clear evidence investors may not price in the growth a windfall should imply.

The obesity drug craze is entering its next phase

8 Feb 2024

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk can’t keep up with demand for their weight loss medications. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the hype among celebrities, the different approaches to prescribing them in the US and Europe, and how they can reshape the world.

Unilever is test case for ‘edible stranded assets’

2 Feb 2024

The $123 bln consumer goods group relies on brands that look vulnerable to sugar taxes and changing eating habits. Like oil majors facing lower demand, Unilever and others like Nestlé may have to write down the value of these assets. Unfortunately, the problem defies easy fixes.

Diageo investors seem braced for a beerier future

30 Jan 2024

The $78 bln drinks giant’s sales of spirits fell in the second half of 2023, but Guinness held up. If investors thought Diageo could hit its sales targets, it would be worth more. One takeaway is that they think more of its future revenue could come from less highly valued beer.