Banks

Now is least-bad time for JPMorgan CEO to move on

12 Jul 2024

Jamie Dimon’s 18-year tenure has rarely enjoyed such a benign backdrop: record-high profit, a revival underway for Wall Street’s dealmakers, and a regulatory hammer-blow forestalled. As successors stake out a higher profile, his steady hand might be useful elsewhere - like in DC.

UniCredit-ECB spat could sharpen watchdog’s teeth

10 Jul 2024

The 60 bln euro bank is contesting in court the regulator’s demand for a faster Russia exit. At issue is whether the European Central Bank can base orders on hypothetical risks. If the supervisor wins, it may be emboldened to take tougher action on issues like climate change.

China’s central bank is stuck in a policy dilemma

9 Jul 2024

The PBOC is now intervening in short-term debt markets. Ideally it should be cutting rates to help spur more investment in the economy. But that would mean giving in to traders parking their money in government bonds – and would conflict with its mandate to foster a strong yuan.

China’s banker pay crackdown risks Pyrrhic victory

8 Jul 2024

State-backed financial firms will face orders to cap salaries at about $400,000. The move reverses a drive to pay for performance, will alienate staff, create stodgier institutions and kill Beijing's dream of creating "top class" global investment banks - all for little benefit.

India’s chase of foreign shorts hits close to home

3 Jul 2024

The regulator targeted Hindenburg Research for poor disclaimers in its attack on industrial giant Adani. Fresh details show the short seller and a Wall Street fund manager profited, but also how Indian lender Kotak facilitated the trade. Pursuing sceptical investors can backfire.

Riches of Japan wealth push will be thinly spread

26 Jun 2024

After decades of deflation, rising prices threaten to erode the nation's savings. The urgent official task of turning citizens into investors offers a $37 bln revenue opportunity. But megabanks and firms including Nomura will share the spoils with aggressive younger upstarts.

UBS deal reflects resilient demand for China trade

25 Jun 2024

Its sale of Credit Suisse’s Chinese securities JV stake to a state-run firm greases the Swiss bank’s plan to take control of another unit, and snubbed bidder Citadel still looks keen to enter the market. Conditions are tough but firms are shoring up their future on the mainland.

Revolut’s desired $40 bln price tag is a stretch

24 Jun 2024

The UK fintech group wants to sell $500 mln of shares at a valuation far above its last level. To get to $40 bln, investors need to assume it’s like payment giant Adyen. With a lower margin and discounts warranted in other areas, Revolut’s value looks more like $20 bln.

UBS deal exposes Swiss trustbusters’ inadequacy

19 Jun 2024

Despite competition concerns, the $100 bln bank has escaped antitrust blowback from last year’s purchase of troubled Credit Suisse. Any doubt could have undermined the deal, and hence the rescue. But Swiss legal tools to monitor further competition risks look especially weak.

Japan’s value push is starting to lose momentum

14 Jun 2024

Notwithstanding big activist campaigns, tallies of shareholder proposals tabled for company annual meetings this month look underwhelming. The stock rally is fast fading too. Japan has a long history of disappointing investors. The stakes for how fund managers vote are rising.

China banks walk narrow path past property crisis

14 Jun 2024

The country's lenders have $22 trln, or 38% of their assets, in real estate-linked loans. But bad debt disposals and low exposure to developers have protected balance sheets. The bigger headache now may be falling net interest margins. Beijing's latest property fix won't help.

Euro zone banks’ periphery premium is here to stay

13 Jun 2024

Lenders in Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain on average trade with a 30% higher price-to-tangible-book value than French, German and Dutch ones. It reflects a reversal of fortunes between the old periphery and core – but also different business models, meaning the gap may persist.

Spain’s $24 bln investment giant has too many hats

12 Jun 2024

Criteria Caixa takes dividends from its big equity portfolio and sends cash to the country’s top charitable foundation. Increasingly, though, Chair Isidro Fainé is fixated on protecting national champions like Telefónica. Pleasing Madrid means sacrificing returns for the charity.

Spanish bank M&A lies in lap of interest-rate gods

7 Jun 2024

BBVA’s 12 bln euro hostile pursuit of Sabadell currently implies a slim premium to the target’s pre-bid price. If the latter’s investors think the ECB will keep rates high, returns will stay strong and they should reject BBVA. But lots of rate cuts may upend Sabadell’s defence.

Wall Street is contorting to replace China trade

6 Jun 2024

Investment banking revenue in the People's Republic is at the lowest level since 2014. Advisers are chasing fees in India, South Korea and Australia. The biggest hope for offsetting the loss of business from the region’s top economy lies in Japan, where talent is in short supply.

Investors are hunting securitization’s oddballs

4 Jun 2024

Whether a bundt cake bakery or an internet address, if it generates steady cash, it can be diced up in the financial alchemy of securitization. In this Exchange podcast, Janus Henderson’s John Kerschner explains the promise and perils, and why the oddest assets can be the best.

Korea’s short-selling aversion mars reform push

30 May 2024

Seoul doesn't want to allow the practice until it stamps out so-called naked illegal trades in the $1.9 trln market. But the problem is overstated and jars with a push to unlock shareholder value. The government's pandering to retail investors only hurts them in the long run.

Swiss wealth M&A may kill two birds with one stone

28 May 2024

Julius Baer and EFG held merger talks, Reuters and others reported. With just $640 bln of combined assets under management, they’d be unlikely to threaten UBS. Yet a deal would make financial sense, and EFG CEO Giorgio Pradelli could fill a leadership void at its larger peer.

UBS succession menu looks unnecessarily short

28 May 2024

The $100 bln bank ruled out external candidates to replace CEO Sergio Ermotti in about three years, the FT reported. Grooming home-grown successors is good planning. But none of the internal frontrunners currently offer what UBS will most need: a convincing US growth strategy.

Big banks win with FDIC head’s resignation

21 May 2024

Martin Gruenberg’s decision to vacate his post as the banking regulator’s leader leaves few possibilities for new capital rules. He could stick around long enough to usher through a watered-down version. If he’s pushed out, Republicans, who want the rules to die, take control.