Banks

How HSBC can heal the scars of its CEO battle

29 Aug 2024

The $160 bln lender’s retail and wealth head Nuno Matos left after losing out on the top job to Georges Elhedery. The bank now has an empty CFO post, and a lack of potential future leaders. Recruiting heavy-hitting outsiders, like Citi’s Jane Fraser has done, would help.

Deutsche’s legal seesaw flags investor blind spot

22 Aug 2024

The German lender shocked shareholders in April by setting aside 1.3 bln euros for a 14-year-old Postbank M&A case, only to settle with most plaintiffs for half the claimed amount. It’s a case study in the opacity of bank legal risks, which plays into the sector’s value discount.

Europe’s dealmakers begin tough redemption journey

19 Aug 2024

The market share of BNP, Barclays, UBS, SocGen and Deutsche seems to have troughed at around 8% in M&A and 6% in equity underwriting. The days of ever-increasing US dominance may be over. Getting investors to attach more value to these volatile units, though, is the harder job.

Growth is missing piece in UBS valuation puzzle

14 Aug 2024

The $100 bln lender is speeding up its cost cuts and shrinkage of Credit Suisse’s investment bank. But the bits of UBS investors like, such as wealth management and Swiss banking, seem sluggish. Changing that will be key to closing the value gap with rivals like Morgan Stanley.

Cross-border bank deal takes leap of faith

12 Aug 2024

A $2.8 bln investment by Scotiabank helps Ohio-based KeyCorp get out of a capital rut, and at a generous valuation, to boot. For the Canadian lender, the direct benefit of a minority holding in a US peer is less clear. Stake sales of this sort are rare for a reason.

UK financial watchdog’s H2O thwack has a downside

8 Aug 2024

The fund group will repay 250 mln euros after the FCA said it bought esoteric bonds and didn’t declare conflicts. The deal gets money to investors quicker than if a fine had been levied. But, at just a fraction of what some clients are claiming, the settlement risks looking soft.

The Bank of Japan’s flipflopping can backfire

8 Aug 2024

Days after Governor Kazuo Ueda talked up interest rate hikes, his deputy is suddenly playing down the prospect. That may be intentional but it muddies the message to Japanese businesses on the outlook. It also overplays Japan’s role in sparking the global market ructions.

DBS CEO aces succession, sets high bar

8 Aug 2024

Piyush Gupta is leaving the $72 bln bank after 15 years in charge. He put it on the Asian map, logged stellar returns, and ensured a Singapore-style drama-free transition of power. Incoming boss Tan Su Shan is a solid choice to steer DBS through its next trickier growth phase.

China’s mounting bad debts have fewer places to go

7 Aug 2024

StanChart-backed Bohai Bank is selling $4 bln-worth of non-performing assets. It underscores the pressure lenders are under as property-linked loans sour. Yet distressed-asset managers like Cinda are feeling the strain too. Disposing banks' $470 bln bad debt pile will get harder.

BNP’s AXA deal is a logical use of spare cash

2 Aug 2024

The French bank will buy the insurer’s fund unit for 5.1 bln euros, using money from its BancWest sale. It’s a big deal, but the price looks fair. And while BNP Paribas investors may prefer buybacks, a capital-light target makes more sense than a rash swoop on another lender.

HSBC’s growth engine has insufficient horsepower

31 Jul 2024

Wealth revenue is rising at the $167 bln lender, but not necessarily fast enough to offset the hit from falling rates. The key transaction-banking unit, meanwhile, is stagnant. To fix it, new CEO Georges Elhedery will need investors’ patience and a dose of economic good luck.

SocGen’s valuation salvation may lie in a breakup

29 Jul 2024

The 19 bln euro French bank trades at a 60% discount to rivals – the widest gap in a decade. None of its core units are particularly attractive, making a revival tough. But selling listed holdings, worth 8 bln euros, could fund a deeper restructuring and make M&A more plausible.

Euro-banks offer glimpse of possible bad-debt wave

24 Jul 2024

Deutsche upped its forecast loan-loss charge, contributing to a 7% share-price fall. BNP’s default provision spiked, and UniCredit’s has too in Germany. Most of the bad news relates to just a few specific corporate clients. But there will be more if rates stay higher for longer.

Sabadell surfs interest-rate wave away from BBVA

23 Jul 2024

The Spanish bank reckons it can generate at least a 13% return on tangible equity this year and next. It makes BBVA’s 12 bln euro hostile all-share bid less attractive. Sabadell will still suffer if rates fall fast, but a higher offer seems more necessary by the day.

As rates fall, European banks can still rise

22 Jul 2024

Tight monetary policy turbocharged returns for lenders like $68 bln UniCredit. Yet lower interest rates don’t have to do the opposite. Central-bank cuts may boost loan demand and investment-banking fees, while keeping bad debt low, which should push up valuations.

China rate cuts usher in next stimulus stage

22 Jul 2024

Days after Party leaders unveiled sweeping pledges to revive the $17 trln economy, the central bank unexpectedly cut key lending rates. It's a modest move but helps the PBOC establish a new benchmark and signals Beijing's urgency to speed up reforms. More policies will follow.

Cyber meltdown points to downsides of efficiency

19 Jul 2024

A software update by $83 bln CrowdStrike grounded flights and disrupted financial markets. That’s possible because businesses work with a small number of providers, seeking lower costs. It supports rich tech valuations, but also heightens the risks of a catastrophic failure.

HSBC makes right call on CEO, three months late

17 Jul 2024

Georges Elhedery, the $160 bln bank’s new boss, always looked the best available option. HSBC’s current CFO will have a job managing slower growth and tricky Chinese relations. Had the lender endorsed him in April alongside Noel Quinn’s exit, he would be on a firmer footing.

Banks prep for this-time-it’s-different deal boom

16 Jul 2024

Morgan Stanley’s 51% pop in investment banking revenue rounds out a strong quarter for Wall Street rainmakers. Peers like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are also eyeing a pick-up in M&A and underwriting. But the clients look different now, and so do the banks – not all in a good way.

India’s rescued Yes Bank is ripe for a new owner

16 Jul 2024

A sale of the $10 bln lender could realise a chunky return for its 2020 saviours led by State Bank of India, especially if a strong global player follows Singapore's DBS into the market. But success in the country demands more patience than overseas banks have shown.