Banks

Why private credit is shrinking as it booms

17 Dec 2024

Non-bank lenders, sitting atop $2 trln in assets, keep taking more of the market away from the traditional titans of Wall Street. Yet the industry is now rapidly consolidating. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Marc Lipschultz, co-CEO of Blue Owl Capital, explains why.

Yuan’s fall would be a gift to Bank of Japan

16 Dec 2024

Talk of devaluation by Beijing to blunt any impact of an aggressive ratcheting up of US tariffs is jolting currency markets primed for a trade war. A drop in the renminbi would weigh on Japan's yen especially. That's not necessarily bad news for Governor Kazuo Ueda.

India compounds new central bank boss’s challenges

10 Dec 2024

Sanjay Malhotra will have enough on his plate as RBI governor dealing with a slowing domestic economy amid rising global tensions. But the messy way in which New Delhi handled the transition from six-year incumbent Shaktikanta Das means Malhotra starts on the back foot.

ANZ’s new CEO has his hands partly tied

9 Dec 2024

HSBC's ex-retail boss Nuno Matos will take charge of Australia's second-largest lender. Its subpar performance merits the outside hire. But key projects, like integrating Suncorp's bank, are far from complete. That will limit his ability to shake things up at the $60 bln group.

Gautam Adani is promise and peril of Indian growth

28 Nov 2024

With $31 bln of debt, deep links to the banking system and a star role in India’s energy transition, the tycoon’s empire is a crucial part of the fifth-largest economy. In this week’s Viewsroom, Breakingviews columnists discuss how US bribery charges will test those dependencies.

Italian bank M&A circus risks sidelining investors

26 Nov 2024

Andrea Orcel’s UniCredit offered 10 bln euros for Banco BPM, irking Rome and potentially eliciting a rival swoop from the target’s 9.2% owner Crédit Agricole. Meanwhile BPM may launch its own bid for Monte dei Paschi. The risk is that shareholder interests get lost in the noise.

UniCredit boss’ 3D chess M&A game could backfire

25 Nov 2024

Andrea Orcel’s bank offered 10 bln euros for Italian rival Banco BPM months after a raid on Germany’s Commerzbank. Both deals make sense, and having options may boost his negotiating power. But hostile moves can harden opposition, and UniCredit risks looking desperate for a deal.

COP29 steals defeat from jaws of abject failure

25 Nov 2024

The $300 bln-a-year financing target for poorer states adopted at the UN climate shindig is woefully inadequate. It also assumes the West will provide part of the cash from sources it's leery of, like carbon taxes. The saving grace is that diplomacy lives to fight another day.

Beijing can slow, not stop, the yuan’s fall

18 Nov 2024

China hawks are headed for the White House, upping the odds of more tariffs on the $18 trln economy. That's expected to add downward pressure on the renminbi. Regulators have plenty of tools, but drawing a line in the sand would only provide a target for traders to challenge.

UK mistakes City liberalisation for a growth plan

15 Nov 2024

Finance minister Rachel Reeves wants to unleash the 153-bln-pound financial sector to boost the economy. It’s not clear that her reforms so far, like a share-trading venue for private companies, will do that. Meatier deregulation, meanwhile, would raise the risk of future crises.

China developers’ survival fight gets litmus test

15 Nov 2024

Sunac has given investors four options for restructuring $2 bln of onshore bonds, including an 82% haircut and a debt-for-equity swap. How they vote will reveal their views on both the $3.1 bln firm’s chances of survival and Beijing’s attempts to end the property slump.

Shein margin wobble takes bite out of IPO value

14 Nov 2024

The e-commerce giant’s revenue growth slumped in the first half of 2024, and the net margin fell to 2% per The Information. Even if the business recovers, it creates uncertainty that’s compounded by a protectionist US government. Investors may struggle to see the upside.

Singapore’s banking giant DBS is coming of age

12 Nov 2024

The $90 bln Singapore lender will start returning capital to shareholders through share buybacks. Incoming CEO Tan Su Shan will retain sufficient firepower to pursue bold M&A, though changing US policy in its Asian backyard may merit a cautious turn.

HSBC can stand strong in a fragmenting world

7 Nov 2024

The $170 bln bank is uniquely dependent on East-West linkages at a time when global tensions are rising. Yet it weathered the last US-China tit-for-tat fairly well. And supply-chain shifts could even boost the lender, if CEO Georges Elhedery can help it adapt to new trade flows.

Macquarie’s lumpy earnings are a luxury problem

1 Nov 2024

The $55 bln investment bank's stock fell 4% as results were hit in part by fewer private equity-like asset sales. But it's still sporting a high valuation despite low returns. CEO Shemara Wikramanayake's impressive track record means the lender can withstand a few blows.

French banks’ ups and downs obscure value problem

31 Oct 2024

Société Générale shares rose 7% after its results showed faster growth, while BNP Paribas fell 6% after sluggish earnings. The bigger issue is that both lenders now trade at a discount to euro zone peers. A tough Gallic market and volatile trading units make that hard to change.

Global banks are nearing peak regulation

31 Oct 2024

Sixteen years after the financial crisis that triggered bailouts and new rules, CEOs like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon are pushing back. Sympathetic politicians and competition from shadow banks help their case. The best hope for watchdogs is to stop the system from fragmenting.

Robust banks impair pleas for lighter regulation

31 Oct 2024

Lenders on both sides of the Atlantic are doing relatively well, despite concerns over the effect of shifting rates. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what is driving growth, and why CEOs are simultaneously bemoaning increased scrutiny from watchdogs.

UBS can share more M&A savings with investors

30 Oct 2024

CEO Sergio Ermotti keeps upping the pace of cost cuts from buying Credit Suisse, with his 2024 target now $7.5 bln. Yet expenses elsewhere in the bank seem to be offsetting those gains. To please shareholders, UBS may have to let more of the bounty drop down to the bottom line.

India’s microfinance trouble goes mainstream

28 Oct 2024

IndusInd Bank shares dropped 19%, wiping out $2 bln or over half the value of its loans to the poor. Investors are pricing in an asset quality meltdown far worse than the lender’s rising delinquencies imply, and a possible throwback to the 2010 crisis that blew up the industry.