Bank of England

UK is in monetary policy vanguard for new reason

17 Mar 2022

The Bank of England raised rates for a third meeting running. Governor Andrew Bailey started tightening policy sooner than peers at the Fed and ECB, but is now toning down his talk about future hikes because of growth worries. Where he leads, others may once again follow.

Andrew Bailey pay rise clanger has tiny PR upside

7 Feb 2022

The Bank of England chief’s call for wage restraint has gone down badly with workers facing soaring prices. The ensuing controversy, has, however, done more to inform the public about the central bank’s mission to control inflation than many past communications campaigns.

New Bank of England guessing game begins

3 Feb 2022

A second rate rise in as many months raises the question of how quickly Governor Andrew Bailey will reduce bond holdings accumulated during the pandemic. A gradual approach won’t cause economic or market pain. But debt yields will become more volatile once the Fed follows suit.

Banks’ rate-rise rewards may be bigger than ever

17 Jan 2022

Deposits at large U.S. lenders are up by a third since 2019 to $11 trln. They’ve stashed much of the cash in central-bank reserves, which immediately earn more as rates go up. Tighter monetary policy usually helps banks, but especially so given their current mix of assets.

Trailblazing UK rate rise may pay off in the end

16 Dec 2021

The Bank of England is the first major central bank to hike its policy rate. The ECB faces less acute price pressures and the Fed must consider the job market alongside inflation. It’s a gamble, but acting now means British rate-setters will have less hiking to do in the future.

Omicron may give inflation a chance to bed in

29 Nov 2021

The new coronavirus variant could ease short-term price pressures if it triggers wider lockdowns that curb consumption. But if it prolongs supply-chain problems the reverse will be true in the longer term. Especially if cautious central bankers delay tightening monetary policy.

Central Europe is monetary policy’s control test

8 Nov 2021

The Czech, Polish and Hungarian central banks are hiking interest rates, the traditional riposte to rising inflation. In contrast, peers in major economies are responding less aggressively to price pressures. That makes for an interesting experiment.

UK wades into central banks vs. markets fray

4 Nov 2021

Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey has a different mandate from Fed Chair Jay Powell. But his basic challenge is the same: persuading investors that interest rates won’t rise as much as they think next year. The Briton’s old-school inflation target makes his job harder.

Rishi Sunak pays if BoE inflation bet goes awry

22 Sep 2021

Surging prices mean the UK finance minister has to pay more interest on outstanding debt. Blame Britain’s love of bonds tied to inflation. The bill will be even bigger if price pressures are more stubborn than the Bank of England expects, forcing hasty monetary policy tightening.

Capital Calls: Microsoft’s buyback, Railway M&A

15 Sep 2021

Concise views on global finance: the software giant’s $60 bln stock repurchase plan is smaller than it sounds; meanwhile, a tangled takeover battle for train operator Kansas City Southern takes a messy new track.

Bank investors sense a blockage in dividend gusher

13 Jul 2021

UK lenders like NatWest could in theory make payouts worth up to 25% of their market value, after the Bank of England lifted a ban. Despite a recent rally, they’re not getting full credit for this. Lingering coronavirus risks and IT investment needs may explain the scepticism.

Capital Calls: Infrastructure, Doximity, Deliveroo

24 Jun 2021

Concise views on global finance: President Biden’s $1 trln bipartisan plan for U.S. infrastructure is a feat of political engineering. Meanwhile, medical-themed social network Doximity finds riches in niches, and UK delivery outfit Deliveroo serves up a favorable court ruling.

Bank climate stress tests scarier than they look

11 Jun 2021

UK and European lenders that flunk green exercises will not face higher capital charges. But past evidence suggests investors will use the new disclosure to penalise funders of pollution. That will either throttle carbon financing – or shift it to the non-bank sector.

Capital Calls: SXSW

19 Apr 2021

Concise views on global finance: Rolling Stone publisher Penske Media is taking a 50% stake in hipster arts festival South By Southwest.

Capital Calls: Airline IPO, Turkey’s central bank

18 Mar 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: U.S. regional air carrier Sun Country Airlines’ IPO pop is justified by positive cash flow; Turkey shows how emerging-market policymakers face trickier choices than their rich-world peers.

Insurers’ Brexit pleading deserves short shrift

24 Feb 2021

Domestic firms want the government to ease capital requirements following the UK’s departure from the EU. It’s true dividend restrictions mean they may already have ample capital. But amid a slump that’s not enough to make already confusing solvency metrics even more so.

Capital Calls: Deloitte castoff, Banks and Brexit

15 Feb 2021

Concise views on global finance in the Covid-19 era: The UK auditor chooses an unfortunate moment to offload its lucrative restructuring practice; The Bank of England pours cold water on the idea of a regulatory bonfire after Britain leaves the European Union.

BoE preps negative rate gun it doesn’t want to use

4 Feb 2021

Bank of England boss Andrew Bailey told lenders to be ready to cope with sub-zero interest rates at any point from six months’ time. The weapon will be a handy addition to his arsenal. Covid-19 variants or post-Brexit trade frictions may yet derail the growth rebound he expects.

BoE leaves UK lenders in investor purgatory

11 Dec 2020

The supervisor will let HSBC, Lloyds and others resume dividends and share buybacks next year. But its new “guardrails” will limit the sector’s overall yield to around 2%. While the original ban made sense, lingering restrictions may further raise banks’ cost of capital.

Bank of England offers plaster for Covid-19 wound

5 Nov 2020

Governor Andrew Bailey will buy an extra 150 bln pounds of government debt, allowing finance minister Rishi Sunak to keep spending during a new lockdown. But the pandemic’s structural shifts may leave behind workers who lack the right skills. Only the state can fix that problem.