Markets gulp down central banks’ half-full glass 2 Feb 2023 Three of the world’s most prominent central banks raised interest rates to multi-year highs this week. Investors loved it, reading the decisions as the beginning of the end for monetary tightening. Policymakers, and stubborn inflation, might prove them wrong.
Sick Britain no longer needs Dr Bailey’s medicine 1 Feb 2023 The Bank of England is likely to raise its key interest rate to 4% on Thursday. That would be a step too far. The UK is nearing a recession, consumers are suffering and inflation is abating. The higher Governor Andrew Bailey hikes rates, the more drastic cuts will likely follow.
ECB, BoE will fight to regain anti-inflation mojo 15 Dec 2022 The European Central Bank and the Bank of England hiked rates by 50 basis points, less than recent jumbo increases. Recession fears, and the central banks’ initial hesitancy, are making investors sceptical of a sustained tightening. Sticky inflation will prove them wrong.
Bank of England inflation fight easier than Fed’s 24 Nov 2022 An OECD study shows supply shocks are pushing up American prices, while strong demand is a bigger factor in the UK. That makes BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s task more straightforward than Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s. For Britain, though, price stability will deepen economic woes.
UK market watchdogs rely on kindness of foreigners 9 Nov 2022 The Bank of England has intervened in government bond trading twice in less than three years. Both times, selling by overseas funds was partly to blame. British regulators have limited oversight of the $2.4 trln gilts market. Their best hope is help from counterparts elsewhere.
Central banks get sucked into financial black hole 14 Oct 2022 Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and his peers are raising interest rates to fight inflation. But indebted households, governments and companies make it hard to break free from ultra-easy money. The turmoil will force central banks to change course, says Edward Chancellor.
Bailey outburst blunts BoE crisis-fighting tools 12 Oct 2022 The Bank of England governor vowed to stop bond-buying designed to help pension funds, despite suggestions he might extend it. In the current turmoil, subtlety and strategic ambiguity are key BoE tools. Andrew Bailey has instead locked himself into a path he may need to reverse.
BoE drawn into risky game of financial whac-a-mole 11 Oct 2022 The Bank of England said it would buy more bonds to avert a fire sale by pension funds. Its plan to end such support on Oct. 14 is hampered by a distressed bond market, and wayward government. Governor Andrew Bailey risks either backtracking again, or letting the economy suffer.
Capital Calls: Trustbusters’ metaverse gambit 10 Oct 2022 Concise views on global finance: The Federal Trade Commission dialed back some of its arguments against Meta’s latest VR deal – but still faces a difficult needle to thread.
“Help to Refi” could be UK’s next financial wheeze 30 Sep 2022 Prime Minister Liz Truss’s rash tax cuts have rattled the government bond market. She needs to attract investors and bring yields back down. The “Help to Buy” scheme to subsidise mortgages offers a template. Breakingviews imagines a fictional adviser taking up the challenge.
BoE remedy can only be partial cure for UK ills 29 Sep 2022 The UK central bank launched $70 bln of bond-buying after PM Liz Truss’s budget triggered market chaos. That has stemmed a financial crisis among indebted pension funds. Stopping the market exerting economic pain requires a fiscal rethink from politicians, not more BoE action.
Behind Britain’s self-inflicted financial crisis 28 Sep 2022 Sterling fell to a record low and gilt yields soared after finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled a raft of unfunded tax cuts. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists explain the long-term damage to the UK’s credibility and what will rebuild investors’ confidence.
BoE’s bond-buying U-turn is worth the risk 28 Sep 2022 The Bank of England will buy UK sovereign debt and delayed sales of its $915 bln bond portfolio due to market “dysfunction”. The danger is Governor Andrew Bailey looks too close to the government whose tax cuts caused the turmoil. Yet calmer markets make it easier to hike rates.
UK swaps one cost-of-living crisis for another 27 Sep 2022 The Bank of England may raise rates past 5% to stem the inflationary effect of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s tax cuts. Homeowners, saved by the government’s energy price cap, now face a surge in mortgage costs. That will sap growth and add to pressure for banks to help customers.
Trussonomics may freak out the markets 5 Sep 2022 If the UK’s new prime minister was only planning big energy subsidies, investors might not worry too much. But Liz Truss is also planning tax cuts – and may pick fights with both the Bank of England and European Union. If so, the pound could be clobbered, says Hugo Dixon.
Capital Calls: Bank of England’s dark clouds 4 Aug 2022 Concise views on global finance: The UK central bank predicts inflation will hit 13% and the economy will slip into recession just as Boris Johnson’s successor as prime minister takes charge.
Boris Johnson’s woes obscure deep UK divisions 6 Jul 2022 The UK leader’s grip on office is slipping after senior cabinet members resigned. But his exit saga masks disputes over key issues like taxes, state intervention and relations with the EU, amid the UK’s singular economic mess. A new leader will find them even harder to reconcile.
UK lacks fiscal plan to buffer coming slowdown 13 Jun 2022 GDP has shrunk for two consecutive months while growth and inflation forecasts are the worst in the OECD. The Bank of England is fighting runaway inflation with ever-higher rates. As Brexit exerts an additional drag, the government needs a bolder approach to spending.
BoE pours cold water on bank global-warming panic 24 May 2022 The watchdog’s stress test showed UK lenders can weather a chaotic climate switch without a capital hit. For bank CEOs copping flak for funding polluters, it’s a let-off. The other lesson is that governments will get little help from financial regulators in greening the economy.
Andrew Bailey unwillingly channels Paul Volcker 5 May 2022 The Bank of England boss raised rates to 1% to curb high inflation and may hike further despite the risk of recession. It’s old-school policymaking as practised by the former Fed chief. The more central banks behave this way, the more likely and severe a global downturn will be.