Antitrust

Capital Calls: Antitrust game of chicken

31 Jan 2022

Concise views on global finance: President Joe Biden’s administration is hypersensitive to mergers that reduce competition. Sectors that have also experienced inflation may be top of the hit list – like poultry production.

Microsoft’s scale and M&A invite scrutiny

25 Jan 2022

The $2.2 trln software giant's quarterly sales jumped 20% last quarter. Boss Satya Nadella has outperformed many Big Tech peers of late. After last week's deal to buy Activision for $69 bln, Microsoft's uncanny ability to avoid regulators' crosshairs may be running out.

Defense deal crackdown is a bipartisan affair

25 Jan 2022

After killing Nvidia’s $40 bln Arm deal, U.S. regulatory agency FTC’s head Lina Khan won Republican support to block Lockheed Martin’s deal to buy Aerojet. Defense companies have historically gotten a free antitrust pass. Blocking a merger in that sector leaves little hope for others.

Biden’s antitrust cops turn dealmaking into improv

19 Jan 2022

U.S. watchdogs, swamped by 2021’s $5.8 trln of deals, want to rewrite the merger rule book. Plans to swap a defined framework for an amorphous “holistic” view of possible harms could make deals rarer and more expensive, even if courts that truly decide their fate aren’t on board.

Not all merger boutiques will be equal in 2022

30 Dec 2021

The crackdown on big deals will put a crimp on fees for shops that advise large companies, like PJT or Goldman. The most successful ones will be those that focus on transactions worth less than $1 billion, like Moelis, or big private equity. Houlihan Lokey tops that list.

China is the ghost at the U.S. antitrust feast

29 Dec 2021

A move to slow consolidation could be a gift for Chinese competitors – or so Lockheed Martin says about its purchase of Aerojet Rocketdyne. Expect those arguments to spill out of the defense sector as CEOs facing adversarial watchdogs play the superpower-competition card.

Biden and business are midterm election pair trade

20 Dec 2021

The U.S. president handed corporate chiefs a good year – his moves to help the economy helped them too. If his power wanes after 2022’s Congressional elections, Biden will struggle to wield the stick meant to follow the carrot. A weaker White House means a stronger hand for CEOs.

UK’s Facebook slap-down raises bar for US watchdog

1 Dec 2021

Britain’s antitrust body told the social media giant now named Meta to sell GIF maker Giphy. Its ruling hinges on a view of how the online ad market will evolve, not what it’s like now. CEO Mark Zuckerberg can appeal but the order still sets a punchy precedent for Big Tech deals.

Capital Calls: American healthcare exceptionalism

27 Sep 2021

Concise views on global finance: American male life expectancy at birth dropped over 2 years in 2020, the worst among 29 nations. That raises the stakes in a healthcare crisis among working-age people that even the mightiest U.S. employers have so far failed to solve.

Apple can skip past Epic court slap

10 Sep 2021

A judge ruled the iPhone maker needs to ease its App Store rules and make it more open. But habits are hard to change. And with $194 bln in cash, Apple can still hire the best developers and marketers, not to mention lawyers. It will take a bigger punch to crack its dominance.

Railroad suitor’s graceful exit depends on rival

1 Sep 2021

America’s train regulator has derailed Canadian National’s roughly $30 bln agreed deal for Kansas City Southern. To avoid further uphill effort and hefty fees, the suitor needs peer Canadian Pacific to persuade their mutual target to let it off the hook by jumping tracks again.

South Korea’s app-store sandbox is worth watching

1 Sep 2021

A new bill stops Apple and Google from forcing local developers to use their payment systems, which carry hefty commissions. It’s good for the country’s tech champions, like the $60 bln Kakao. But it’s only worth copying elsewhere if users end up with cheaper or better services.

Capital Calls: U.S. jobs, BBQ IPOs, Wm Morrison

6 Aug 2021

Concise views on global finance: The Delta variant puts a leisure job boom at risk; two grill makers’ floats show the IPO market isn’t frozen; Fortress strikes in the bidding war for a UK supermarket.

Capital Calls: Twitter, Domino’s Pizza

22 Jul 2021

Concise views on global finance: Jack Dorsey’s social network reported a 74% bump in revenue despite a slowdown in adding new users; meanwhile, Domino’s Pizza shows one thing that hasn’t abated in 2021 is customers’ love of takeout pies.

Breakdown: U.S. antitrust frenzy stops with judges

21 Jul 2021

Several federal agencies and dozens of states have challenged big, powerful firms, including tech giants like Facebook. Breakingviews lays out who can do what, when, and with what chance of success when the endgame depends on courts where companies get a sympathetic ear.

Tencent e-sports defeat exposes tech M&A weakness

12 Jul 2021

Trustbusters nixed a $5 bln merger of two video-game streaming companies the Chinese titan backs. It's a sign Beijing will no longer tolerate the kinds of transactions that created giants like Meituan. For Tencent boss Pony Ma, a bigger problem may be having to unwind past deals.

Big Tech trustbusters need to disrupt themselves

30 Jun 2021

A U.S. judge tossed out a government suit against Facebook mainly because the FTC didn’t show how to measure the social network’s market share of a service people don't pay for – despite saying it was 60%-plus – or name competitors. Regulators need to rethink their toolbox.

Facebook ruling shows limit to Biden’s deal crunch

28 Jun 2021

The social network won a dismissal of an antitrust lawsuit by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission, temporarily sending its market value above $1 trln. That’s a blow to an administration that signaled tougher M&A reviews. Deals may take longer, but in court, companies can prevail.

Biden becomes dealmakers’ no fun police

22 Jun 2021

The new U.S. president was meant to bring certainty to the antitrust environment after a tumultuous four years. But Amazon, Aon, Willis, and Live Nation have been caught in antitrust crosshairs. A bigger stick was expected, but the implementation of crackdowns is still a guess.

Aon-Willis deal collapse would leave few mourners

16 Jun 2021

The Biden administration’s first big antitrust shot is against the $30 bln tie-up of two insurance brokers. Customers may not mind if the merger is scuppered. Neither may investors: Since it was announced, the combined firms’ market values have missed out on $20 bln of gains.