Airlines

Capital Calls: Airline recovery, AMS Osram

29 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: A travel boom lifted 2023 operating profit at the $10 bln parent of British Airways and Iberia above its pre-pandemic level; shares in the sensor company, a supplier of Apple, fell 43% after the group cancelled a major micro-LED project.

JetBlue’s turbulence gives Carl Icahn an easy ride

13 Feb 2024

The corporate rabble-rouser took a stake in the airline as it struggles with a defunct deal and business turmoil. That resembles Illumina, where Icahn won a 2023 campaign. Quick-fix activism can’t mend a panoply of issues. But striking at a weak moment can help activists anyway.

Capital Calls: TUI decamps

13 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: Europe’s largest travel firm is encouraging investors to vote in favour of cancelling its London listing, but the UK need not mourn the loss.

Boeing’s market value belies weak market position

6 Feb 2024

The troubled plane maker’s $125 bln valuation assumes its duopoly with Airbus will outlast manufacturing problems with its 737 MAX. Yet the European group has more aircraft in the sky and a bigger order book. This leaves Boeing at a long-term structural disadvantage.

Ryanair clear skies contain Boeing-shaped cloud

29 Jan 2024

Despite a weaker-than-expected third quarter, the $23 bln carrier still predicts record full-year net profit. Assuming holiday bookings hold up, that looks doable. But Ryanair is exposed to the uncertainty surrounding key supplier Boeing in a way that its close rivals are not.

Capital Calls: Greek airport IPO

25 Jan 2024

Concise views on global finance: The Athens government is selling 30% of the country’s biggest airport operator, aiming for a market capitalisation of up to 2.4 bln euros.

Spirit deal loss eases anxiety for everyone else

16 Jan 2024

A judge grounded JetBlue’s $4 bln purchase of the ultra-cheap carrier. The defeat avoided a potentially unprecedented intervention by regulators that would have clouded the industry, while affirming antitrust blowback. But Spirit’s shares halved, for good reason.

Dead power deal shows limits of M&A futurology

2 Jan 2024

Avangrid and PNM have given up on a $8 bln merger after three years of waiting for regulatory approval. Yet investors repeatedly priced the target as if the tie-up were in the bag. Political twists can easily wrong-foot arbitrageurs. Trouble is, such twists may get more common.

Capital Calls: Ryanair

18 Dec 2023

Concise views on global finance: The 21 bln euro budget airline’s potential 100 mln euro bonus for its CEO looks all the more awkward given the board’s decision last year to tweak the conditions.

Airline investors have reason to grab the barf bag

4 Dec 2023

Alaska Air’s $1.9 bln buy of Hawaiian could reap big benefits, yet tanked the buyer’s shares by 15%. A deal only works if it survives hostile trustbusters and doesn’t wreck Alaska’s balance sheet. Until turbulence clears, shareholders are right to distrust the captain’s promises.

Capital Calls: Ferrovial/Heathrow

29 Nov 2023

Concise views on global finance: The Spanish infrastructure giant has offloaded its final 25% stake to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and private equity group Ardian for 2.4 bln pounds, but a chunky premium means the new owners should hope for a smoother ride.

Ryanair’s valuation can climb to a higher altitude

6 Nov 2023

Soaring demand means the 18 bln euro airline’s earnings are above even pre-pandemic levels. Investors’ recession fears have prevented Ryanair’s share price from reflecting the good cheer. Still, history suggests budget vacations are among the last things that consumers cut.

Capital Calls: Birkenstock flop

11 Oct 2023

Concise views on global finance: The sandal maker took a tumble, as its shares opened more than 10% below the IPO price, leaving questions about its venue and valuation.

Deaths haunt Corporate America via labor strikes

15 Sep 2023

Auto workers, pilots, and truck drivers have had upper hands in labor strikes. That’s despite labor supply healing. One reason may be that men have left the workforce. Opioids and Covid are partly to blame. But it highlights the dangers of demographically concentrated jobs.

Qantas CEO’s exit will barely reduce turbulence

5 Sep 2023

Alan Joyce hopes retiring early from the airline will “accelerate its renewal” after months of scrutiny culminating in a watchdog accusing it of bad conduct. But real change won’t come cheap for his successor. And more sacrifices from the board's long haulers are likely.

Feel-good war on short flights misses the mark

4 Sep 2023

European states like Germany are mulling bans on air travel under a certain distance. Short-haul commercial flights make convenient climate scapegoats. But going after private jets, which can emit 45 times more carbon per passenger, would bring more benefit with less disruption.

Capital Calls: Cathay, Telecoms kit makers, Byju’s

14 Jul 2023

Concise views on global finance: The Hong Kong carrier expects to turn a profit; a push into 5G has caught European telecoms gear makers like Nokia and Ericsson short; India’s troubled ed-tech giant appoints a top former banker to a newly formed advisory council.

Global airlines grasp at the 100% recovery

21 Jun 2023

Passengers are slowly taking back to the skies but remain reluctant to travel internationally. Singapore Airlines logged a record net profit but won’t say when it will return to pre-pandemic capacity. Rivals are more committed but whether they can deliver is up in the air.

Capital Calls: Lufthansa/ITA

26 May 2023

Concise views on global finance: The 11 bln euro German carrier pays 325 mln euros for a 41% stake in the airline born from the ashes of Alitalia.

India’s airline turbulence will be felt abroad

17 May 2023

Go is the second carrier to go bust since 2019 despite a booming $12 bln industry. Blame price wars and debt-fuelled expansion. The airline’s legal battle with foreign lessors like Sumitomo will be messy too. It will raise the costs on efforts to turn India into an aviation hub.