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Apple may be poisoned by Google antitrust fallout

27 Sep 2023

Founder Steve Jobs once threatened “thermonuclear war” against his rival for copying the iPhone. Now, more than 15% of Apple's operating profit might be coming from fees paid by the search giant. The big risk is that an unfavorable verdict will taint its rich valuation multiple.

Klaviyo is better bellwether than Arm or Instacart

13 Sep 2023

Unlike its hyped peers, the marketing firm is paving the way for garden-variety tech IPOs, targeting an $8 bln valuation. It’s profitable, growing and even has its own invented metric, making it a better gauge of investor sentiment. One wrinkle is its reliance on backer Shopify.

Adland consumer-goods boon has limited shelf-life

4 Aug 2023

Food and beverage giants like PepsiCo are ramping up marketing amid soaring sales. That’s a fillip for WPP and peers, which have seen revenue from tech clients stumble. The risk is that, with inflation falling, consumer goods’ momentum slows before Big Tech gets back on its feet.

Digital ad vultures descend on TV’s carcass

28 Jul 2023

Meta and Alphabet got their mojo back thanks to renascent marketing activity. Ebbing fears of recession and Chinese vendors are helping. With $130 bln still earmarked for commercials on dying television, the pack of scavengers has grown to include Uber, Netflix and others.

KKR’s FGS deal sets new bar for comms valuations

6 Apr 2023

The private equity group may buy 30% of the WPP-owned financial communications firm. The high price allows employees to cash out over $200 mln, meaning a few may leave. The best hope for KKR is that FGS’s revenue is increasingly stable and growing, justifying the higher multiple.

Google ad lawsuit reaches back to the future

24 Jan 2023

The Alphabet-owned search giant is in hot water with U.S. prosecutors who say its digital ad business is anticompetitive, citing deals it did 15 years ago. Google may be dominant, but regulators let it get that way. Meanwhile, the market has already started to create its own fix.

Battered fintech sector’s next play: sell ads

20 Jan 2023

Erstwhile financial technology stars like $47 bln Block and Klarna are suffering from falling valuations and slowing sales. Yet they’re sitting on potentially valuable insights about punters’ spending habits. That points to an opportunity in helping retailers reach their users.

Adland veterans play tortoise to Big Tech’s hare

10 Nov 2022

Once deemed ex-growth, WPP and peers collectively grew revenue faster than Snap and Meta last quarter. New services like building apps and crunching client data helped. But if big adland clients like Nestlé keep spending while small businesses drop out, it may be no one-off.

Big Tech risks a reversion to Web Finance 1.0

24 Oct 2022

Meta, Alphabet and Twitter were noobs to the ad game during the last recession. Back in 2009, digital claimed just a 16% share. Now, the online giants are far more heavily exposed to deep marketing budget cuts. With costs also out of whack, it could start to feel more like 2000.

Capital Calls: U.S. jobs

7 Oct 2022

Concise views on global finance: Employment numbers reported Friday show a robust market. But just like a sudden glut of inventory inflicting major retailers, businesses could find themselves overflowing with employees, too.

Capital Calls: Ralph Lauren

19 Sep 2022

Concise views on global finance: The $6 bln retailer known for its iconic Polo shirts is cheaply valued compared to European counterparts.

Instacart’s fast growth isn’t fast enough

23 Aug 2022

The grocery delivery service is expanding into advertising and offering services to rivals, as boss Fidji Simo preps to potentially go public. Yet even with double digital revenue growth it only looks to be worth around $11 bln, far less than a private valuation a few months ago.

Alibaba offers false ray of China’s economic dawn

4 Aug 2022

Quarterly revenue at the $260 bln e-commerce giant was flat, beating horrid expectations. As lockdowns ease, the hope is that consumers will spend more. But online advertisers, Alibaba’s core customers, are cutting budgets, suggesting a protracted slowdown is on its way.

Video game deal shows late-cycle identity crisis

13 Jul 2022

Graphics-maker Unity is buying Israeli ad-tech firm IronSource for $4.4 bln, a 94% premium. That suggests optimism. But insider Silver Lake will make a $1 bln convertible investment while Unity buys back stock, buffering dilution. Classically, smart investors protect themselves.

Tech giants pick odd time for ad break

1 Jun 2022

Netflix, Sony and others are mulling commercials in shows and games. Given how ad spending gets hit in a downturn, the timing looks curious unless it offsets hard-up consumers cancelling subscriptions. The big winners are the ad-tech firms like Trade Desk making it happen.

Snap! Elon Musk has another Twitter excuse

24 May 2022

The disappearing message app abruptly slashed its quarterly profit forecast, sending shares spiraling nearly 40%. That’s an ominous sign for Twitter, which like Snap, relies on brand advertisers. It also gives the Tesla boss another reason to bail on buying the social platform.

Netflix with ads is worth the change of heart

25 Apr 2022

A rare drop in subscribers helped make co-founder Reed Hastings open to a cheaper advertising-supported package similar to HBO Max. If Netflix can reap the equivalent of Spotify's ad revenue, it could add nearly 40% to its worth. With shares cratering, every bit helps.

Nielsen activist stand is tough to deliver

19 Apr 2022

WindAcre's resistance to the $10 bln sale of the TV-ratings group pits it against buyer and more prominent agitator-investor Elliott. WindAcre is putting its money where its mouth is, but confusing tactics and a demand for an absurd payoff make its campaign look flaky.