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Adland veterans play tortoise to Big Tech’s hare

10 Nov 2022

Once deemed ex-growth, WPP and peers collectively grew revenue faster than Snap and Meta last quarter. New services like building apps and crunching client data helped. But if big adland clients like Nestlé keep spending while small businesses drop out, it may be no one-off.

Big Tech risks a reversion to Web Finance 1.0

24 Oct 2022

Meta, Alphabet and Twitter were noobs to the ad game during the last recession. Back in 2009, digital claimed just a 16% share. Now, the online giants are far more heavily exposed to deep marketing budget cuts. With costs also out of whack, it could start to feel more like 2000.

Capital Calls: U.S. jobs

7 Oct 2022

Concise views on global finance: Employment numbers reported Friday show a robust market. But just like a sudden glut of inventory inflicting major retailers, businesses could find themselves overflowing with employees, too.

Capital Calls: Ralph Lauren

19 Sep 2022

Concise views on global finance: The $6 bln retailer known for its iconic Polo shirts is cheaply valued compared to European counterparts.

Instacart’s fast growth isn’t fast enough

23 Aug 2022

The grocery delivery service is expanding into advertising and offering services to rivals, as boss Fidji Simo preps to potentially go public. Yet even with double digital revenue growth it only looks to be worth around $11 bln, far less than a private valuation a few months ago.

Alibaba offers false ray of China’s economic dawn

4 Aug 2022

Quarterly revenue at the $260 bln e-commerce giant was flat, beating horrid expectations. As lockdowns ease, the hope is that consumers will spend more. But online advertisers, Alibaba’s core customers, are cutting budgets, suggesting a protracted slowdown is on its way.

Video game deal shows late-cycle identity crisis

13 Jul 2022

Graphics-maker Unity is buying Israeli ad-tech firm IronSource for $4.4 bln, a 94% premium. That suggests optimism. But insider Silver Lake will make a $1 bln convertible investment while Unity buys back stock, buffering dilution. Classically, smart investors protect themselves.

Tech giants pick odd time for ad break

1 Jun 2022

Netflix, Sony and others are mulling commercials in shows and games. Given how ad spending gets hit in a downturn, the timing looks curious unless it offsets hard-up consumers cancelling subscriptions. The big winners are the ad-tech firms like Trade Desk making it happen.

Snap! Elon Musk has another Twitter excuse

24 May 2022

The disappearing message app abruptly slashed its quarterly profit forecast, sending shares spiraling nearly 40%. That’s an ominous sign for Twitter, which like Snap, relies on brand advertisers. It also gives the Tesla boss another reason to bail on buying the social platform.

Netflix with ads is worth the change of heart

25 Apr 2022

A rare drop in subscribers helped make co-founder Reed Hastings open to a cheaper advertising-supported package similar to HBO Max. If Netflix can reap the equivalent of Spotify's ad revenue, it could add nearly 40% to its worth. With shares cratering, every bit helps.

Nielsen activist stand is tough to deliver

19 Apr 2022

WindAcre's resistance to the $10 bln sale of the TV-ratings group pits it against buyer and more prominent agitator-investor Elliott. WindAcre is putting its money where its mouth is, but confusing tactics and a demand for an absurd payoff make its campaign look flaky.

Martin Sorrell’s latest S4 pitch falls flat

31 Mar 2022

The former WPP ad man says a last-minute delay to his digital media upstart’s accounts are not a cause for concern. A 40% share price drop suggests investors disagree. S4’s breakneck growth targets and quirky corporate governance leave it exposed to undershooting positive spin.

Capital Calls: Nielsen takes its reboot off air

30 Mar 2022

Concise views on global finance: The TV ratings firm accepted a $10 bln buyout offer days after rejecting a slightly lower bid. If retooling for the streaming era is possible, it will be easier in private.

How Mad Men are waking up to the metaverse

22 Mar 2022

The pandemic sped up the shift to online advertising and e-commerce. In this episode of The Exchange Mark Read, CEO of WPP, tells how his clients coped with Covid-19, why virtual reality is the next big thing for consumer giants, and why corporate purpose is more than a buzzword.

Trump’s Truth Social is an overvalued threat

25 Feb 2022

The former U.S. president launched his social media app after Twitter and others booted him from their platforms. Twitter’s slowing growth suggests he might be able to capture a unique following. But based on its users, its $20 bln market cap is at least double fair value.

Paramount’s streaming revamp is an uphill struggle

16 Feb 2022

ViacomCBS is rebranding to emphasize the media group’s Paramount+ service, which has 33 mln subscribers. Content costs are ballooning just as investors grow skittish about leader Netflix’s growth. A 20% share price drop on Wednesday widens the valuation gap with larger rivals.

Twitter share buyback is an odd way to take flight

10 Feb 2022

New CEO Parag Agrawal plans to repurchase $4 billion in stock. He will also spend more to improve tepid revenue growth. But tough competition and the $30 bln company’s slim slice of the ad market mean Agrawal could do with keeping more in the coffers to help him hit his targets.

Facebook’s future rests on Reels, not metaverse

9 Feb 2022

Mark Zuckerberg’s iffy bet on virtual reality cost Meta Platforms $10 bln last year. But the $600 bln social network has gotten higher returns for investors by improving on ideas that already exist. The best way to stop its decline is to copy its biggest competitor TikTok.