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Vivendi activist’s critique falls on deaf ears

1 Nov 2024

Pushy fund CIAM reckons a planned carveup of the 10-bln-euro media empire favours the controlling Bolloré clan. That’s true. Yet the split at least eases a conglomerate discount. And since voting it down would be a leap into the unknown, investors will probably just stay in line.

Netflix valuation is a goal stretched too far

18 Oct 2024

The $300 bln streaming giant’s share price has hit new highs. Yet ad dollars are not meaningful and a crackdown on passwords will run out of steam. To keep its lofty stock price climb, Netflix will have to double its revenue in three years - a reality hard to script.

KKR’s corporate PR deal hangs on more bad news

7 Aug 2024

The buyout group is taking control of financial communications company FGS from WPP. At 15 times 2024 EBITDA, the $1.7 bln valuation is rich but below peer FTI Consulting. For the bet to pay off, CEOs will have to face more major crises that require the PR firm’s pricey counsel.

Meta AI strategy: give something to get something

25 Jul 2024

As tech firms invest hand over fist in artificial intelligence, the Facebook owner’s plan to let developers tweak and freely use its models sounds like a giveaway. CEO Mark Zuckerberg hopes Meta will be long-term richer for it. Google’s Android success suggests he might be right.

Vivendi only half-solves its valuation discount

22 Jul 2024

The 11 bln euro French media group is spinning off and listing pay-TV arm Canal+ in London and ad group Havas in Amsterdam. It should unleash value. Yet the remaining listed bits, holding media assets and a ragtag of investments, may just suffer from an even more acute markdown.

Snap’s AI push makes for a poor man’s Meta

20 May 2024

Boss Evan Spiegel is following the lead of his arch-rival, chasing the same advertisers that flock to Facebook and plowing money into machine learning. Meta stole Snap’s thunder on AI-powered glasses and more. Problem is, Spiegel doesn’t have the resources to turn the tables.

Warner Bros Discovery makes case against media M&A

23 Feb 2024

The HBO owner’s first full year since the merger of Warner and Discovery was a grim one. Boss David Zaslav lived up to cost-cut goals but missed nearly everywhere else. Even well-run deals can’t stem industry woes, making future tie-ups - with, say, Paramount - look ill-advised.

Capital Calls: Temu’s spending

12 Feb 2024

Concise views on global finance: The Chinese shopping app’s Super Bowl commercial is part of a broader effort to win market share. It’ll help companies like Meta, but Temu now has a chance to muscle in on Amazon’s turf and force the e-commerce giant to compete.

Publicis lead over WPP looks hard to overturn

8 Feb 2024

The $25 bln French ad giant is growing faster than its $11 bln UK rival. Publicis’s relative lack of exposure to the tech sector is one key advantage, but it’s also run more efficiently and has made better strategic choices. WPP’s plan to stop the rot looks unlikely to do so.

Google antitrust trial crystallizes Apple’s risk

15 Nov 2023

Court testimony revealed that Alphabet’s search giant gives the iPhone maker 36% of ad revenue generated through its devices. The cost allows Google to argue it’s in a pay-to-play market. It also suggests that Apple and its shareholders have more to lose from the deal unwinding.

Netflix’s future is gaming, not streaming

19 Oct 2023

The $155 bln company’s jump in subscribers helped revenue growth pick up pace. But tweaks to its business model will only get tougher with cash-rich rivals Apple and Amazon. Netflix’s shift to gaming is a better bet. Warner Bros Discovery shows it can be a golden goose.

Elon Musk could use X to settle old PayPal spat

18 Oct 2023

The site formerly known as Twitter is testing a $1 fee for users. Its billionaire owner says it’s to fight spam, but customer credit card information also could help turn it into a super-app. Adding payments would challenge a company that unceremoniously dismissed him long ago.

Apple may be poisoned by Google antitrust fallout

27 Sep 2023

Founder Steve Jobs once threatened “thermonuclear war” against his rival for copying the iPhone. Now, more than 15% of Apple's operating profit might be coming from fees paid by the search giant. The big risk is that an unfavorable verdict will taint its rich valuation multiple.

Klaviyo is better bellwether than Arm or Instacart

13 Sep 2023

Unlike its hyped peers, the marketing firm is paving the way for garden-variety tech IPOs, targeting an $8 bln valuation. It’s profitable, growing and even has its own invented metric, making it a better gauge of investor sentiment. One wrinkle is its reliance on backer Shopify.

Adland consumer-goods boon has limited shelf-life

4 Aug 2023

Food and beverage giants like PepsiCo are ramping up marketing amid soaring sales. That’s a fillip for WPP and peers, which have seen revenue from tech clients stumble. The risk is that, with inflation falling, consumer goods’ momentum slows before Big Tech gets back on its feet.

Digital ad vultures descend on TV’s carcass

28 Jul 2023

Meta and Alphabet got their mojo back thanks to renascent marketing activity. Ebbing fears of recession and Chinese vendors are helping. With $130 bln still earmarked for commercials on dying television, the pack of scavengers has grown to include Uber, Netflix and others.

KKR’s FGS deal sets new bar for comms valuations

6 Apr 2023

The private equity group may buy 30% of the WPP-owned financial communications firm. The high price allows employees to cash out over $200 mln, meaning a few may leave. The best hope for KKR is that FGS’s revenue is increasingly stable and growing, justifying the higher multiple.

Google ad lawsuit reaches back to the future

24 Jan 2023

The Alphabet-owned search giant is in hot water with U.S. prosecutors who say its digital ad business is anticompetitive, citing deals it did 15 years ago. Google may be dominant, but regulators let it get that way. Meanwhile, the market has already started to create its own fix.

Battered fintech sector’s next play: sell ads

20 Jan 2023

Erstwhile financial technology stars like $47 bln Block and Klarna are suffering from falling valuations and slowing sales. Yet they’re sitting on potentially valuable insights about punters’ spending habits. That points to an opportunity in helping retailers reach their users.