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HSBC succession farce may undercut strategic plan

21 Feb 2020

Chairman Mark Tucker is considering UniCredit’s Jean Pierre Mustier for the CEO job. Interim boss Noel Quinn has unveiled an overhaul but the ambitious Mustier likely has his own ideas of what’s needed. If the outsider is picked, the restructuring may eventually be restructured.

New UBS CEO is best answer to a difficult question

20 Feb 2020

The $50 bln group’s ideal successor to Sergio Ermotti would have experience running a big lender along with wealth management and investment banking chops. That’s a rarity. ING’s Ralph Hamers brings cost-cutting and tech savvy. Holland’s pay rules made him an affordable asset.

HSBC investors are a step ahead of the interim CEO

18 Feb 2020

Noel Quinn is aiming for a return on tangible equity of up to 12% in 2022. He plans to get there by axing $4.5 bln in costs and better allocating capital. For all the upheaval, the shares already imply a similar level of profitability. The main risk now will be missing the mark.

SoftBank hedge fund would suit Son, not investors

17 Feb 2020

Rajeev Misra, head of the conglomerate’s Vision Fund, may raise $4 bln from the likes of Abu Dhabi to bet on listed companies. There’s little downside for his boss, CEO Masayoshi Son. Those who plough money into the fund may regret backing a manager with a limited track record.

Renault stuck tinkering with clunky Nissan tie-up

14 Feb 2020

The Japanese car giant disappointed again, logging its first quarterly loss since 2009 and cutting its profit forecast by 43% as the coronavirus hit sales and suppliers. With a merger shelved for now, recent tweaks to an alliance with Renault will need to pay quick dividends.

Jes Staley’s old associate haunts Barclays revival

13 Feb 2020

Regulators are probing the UK bank CEO’s description of his relationship with disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein. It’s another distraction from efforts to lift the $39 bln lender’s return on tangible equity into double digits. Low interest rates already make that a challenge.

BP leaves investors in a better sort of limbo

12 Feb 2020

New boss Bernard Looney has unveiled ambitions to largely eliminate the oil giant’s net carbon emissions by 2050. That’s more enlightened than most peers, and better than previous goals. But without a clear road map, shareholders can’t work out what the company will be worth.

Daimler’s dividend reverse may be just the start

11 Feb 2020

The Mercedes maker slashed its payout by 2.5 bln euros after 2019 earnings fell by nearly two-thirds. It’s a painful but necessary step to conserve cash while investing in electric vehicles. If projections of stable sales prove too rosy, CEO Ola Kaellenius may need to cut deeper.

Insurance sale gives Agnellis a cash conundrum

10 Feb 2020

Exor, run by Fiat scion John Elkann, is in talks to sell PartnerRe to France’s Covea for $9 bln. Factor in a big dividend from the Peugeot merger and the Italian family’s investment vehicle will be liquid but less diversified. Deploying the proceeds wisely is a new challenge.

Thiam exit only first on Credit Suisse to-do list

7 Feb 2020

Parting with CEO Tidjane Thiam following a spy scandal may repair damage to the Swiss bank’s credibility with customers and regulators. But Chairman Urs Rohner recruited him and has lost investors’ confidence. He’ll struggle to make a credible case for serving out his term, too.

Virus reveals China as global oil’s swing consumer

6 Feb 2020

Saudi Arabia may cut output to offset a demand slump due to the coronavirus. The People’s Republic’s thirst for imported oil, and uncertainty about the length and severity of the crisis, make that a tricky call. Getting it wrong risks opening the door to other exporters.

HSBC CEO limbo has a thin silver lining

6 Feb 2020

The $150 bln bank may unveil a big strategic overhaul before naming its permanent boss. That’s messy but there’s a crumb of comfort. Interim head Noel Quinn is effectively auditioning for the job and has an incentive to show he can quickly deliver much-needed cost cuts.

Ryanair’s budget can stretch to truer green boasts

5 Feb 2020

The low-cost carrier has been ticked off for promoting itself as a low-carbon emitter. True, its planes are getting more efficient, but it’s still a huge polluter. Ryanair’s profitability means boss Michael O’Leary can afford to match rival easyJet in paying to offset its CO2.

UK M&A machine lifts veil on dealmaking’s dangers

4 Feb 2020

Micro Focus released a brutal assessment of its disastrous $9 bln purchase of HP’s old software business, once called Autonomy. The lesson is that back office IT transitions can be decisive. That’s worrying for investors, who typically have no way to assess such humdrum details.

Worldline’s latest deal stretches payments fervour

3 Feb 2020

Less than two years after his last purchase, CEO Gilles Grapinet is offering $8.6 bln in cash and shares for French rival Ingenico. It creates the world’s fourth-biggest payments processor by revenue. Still, the rapid pursuit of scale risks leaving investors with dour returns.

Cox: Consensus long on Trump, short on Facebook

31 Jan 2020

Those are two conclusions gleaned from polls of Breakingviews Predictions event goers. From Paris to Mumbai to Hong Kong, the U.S. president appears poised for re-election. New Yorkers had a different take. Plus, India and BlackRock look good and Apple’s iPhone is built to last.

Deutsche’s growth goals are slipping out of reach

30 Jan 2020

CEO Christian Sewing is slashing costs. But his currency traders and debt bankers will have to generate more revenue to give him a chance of hitting an 8% group return on tangible equity target in 2022. Despite a strong end to 2019, that ambition is starting to look unachievable.

Thyssenkrupp’s ailments give edge to buyout barons

29 Jan 2020

Finnish lift maker Kone is offering 17 bln euros for the German steel giant’s elevator unit. That’s 6% more than the closest private equity bid. But competition regulators could hold up the juicier deal. Given its dismal profitability, Thyssenkrupp may prefer the cleaner option.

Virus panic makes OPEC cat-herding even harder

28 Jan 2020

Oil prices have dipped below $60 a barrel on fears the coronavirus will hit growth. The Saudi-led producers group already has a job convincing the likes of Russia to keep supporting cuts agreed in December. The virus jitters might make others, such as Riyadh, want to double down.

The world’s most important person who missed Davos

27 Jan 2020

It wasn’t a billionaire or a world leader – at least not yet. But the Democrat who will take on Donald Trump for the U.S. presidency in November cast an unavoidable specter over the week’s proceedings. The race and its potential outcomes are as open as they were four years ago.