United States of America

Trump 2.0: taxes, tensions, tariffs, turbulence

7 Nov 2024

In a decisive comeback victory for his third White House run, Donald Trump notched gains across a wide set of voters and issues. In this week’s Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate the chaotic consequences now looming worldwide.

Taiwan’s silicon shield wants for reinforcement

7 Nov 2024

Taipei’s exports to the US are surging thanks to chip giant TSMC, but Donald Trump's threatened tariffs would undermine those. How far the president-elect would go to protect the island from Beijing, especially if trade weakens, is unclear. It's time to boost spending on defence.

China wields weak hand in Trump’s Trade War II

7 Nov 2024

The country would suffer a severe blow if the self-styled ‘Tariff Man’ imposes a 60% US levy on Chinese goods. Trade tensions will be harder to de-escalate this time, and Beijing’s reliance on exports to offset slowing GDP growth leaves the $18 trln economy highly vulnerable.

Elon Musk’s biggest conflict is with Donald Trump

6 Nov 2024

The CEO was enriched Wednesday after shares of Tesla rose by $100 bln following Trump’s victory. From contracts to regulations, Musk’s political and business interests worryingly overlap. Eventually he could become the nexus of Chinese and US leaders’ fractious whims.

Trump win sends markets into parallel realities

6 Nov 2024

The Republican candidate’s clear election victory raised hopes of tax cuts and deregulation, sparking euphoria in US stocks, crypto and the dollar. Yet soaring yields on 30-year Treasury bonds reflect fears of future fiscal trouble. Investors cherry-pick policies at their peril.

Europe is unprepared for the Trump storm

6 Nov 2024

The continent faces tariffs and wavering US defence commitments after the Republican candidate clinched the White House. The bloc’s already sluggish economies will suffer. Meanwhile, divided politics will hinder Europe’s capacity to deal with the shock.

Burberry buyer would need steel-plated trench coat

6 Nov 2024

Shares in the $4 bln UK luxury group rose after a website reported that Moncler was eyeing a bid. But the returns on offer look low, while boosting the brand will be costly. Possible suitors require deep pockets, and the patience to wait a long time for any kind of payback.

Trump re-election entrenches global instability

6 Nov 2024

The former president beat Kamala Harris to return to the White House. Hopes for tax cuts and deregulation will juice short-term asset values. But his love of tariffs and authoritarian instincts set the US – and world – on a perilous path. Unlike last time, it may not be reversed.

French fries make a tasty $11 bln takeover target

5 Nov 2024

Lamb Weston, which sells spuds to McDonald’s and others, is under pressure from pushy investor Jana. A bolder turnaround plan could get messy and leave it a hard-to-value oddball anyway. It’s a better side dish for a peer like agribusiness giant Cargill or cereal company Post.

Verizon would be wise to hold on $20 bln deal

4 Nov 2024

Two big investors claim that broadband builder Frontier is worth more than what the wireless titan is paying for it. The numbers already look shaky and there’s no other suitor, so there’s little reason to sweeten the bid. The fraying fiber transaction is better left to unravel.

Power brokers lose their grip on US politics

4 Nov 2024

Billionaires like Jeff Bezos or Larry Fink are tiptoeing around Tuesday’s vote for good reason. A Kamala Harris victory offers thin hope of easing tough policy. Donald Trump promises tax cuts but threatens unpredictable backlash. Fear is trumping hope, even in the boardroom.

Oil glut renders industry’s appeal purely relative

1 Nov 2024

A record 5 mln bpd of spare OPEC+ capacity helps explain lower profit at Exxon, Chevron and Conoco. The titan run by Darren Woods has positioned itself better to handle the surfeit. Nevertheless, the next decade of returns from US crude producers will be even worse than the last.

Saudi’s Davos is no longer such a desert

1 Nov 2024

Around 8,000 CEOs and financiers flocked to the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh, twice the number at its inception in 2017. Western bosses were keener to talk about artificial intelligence than investing in the kingdom. But Saudi’s progress suggests that may yet change.

Gold surge adds glitter to tarnished miners

31 Oct 2024

The yellow metal is up 35% this year as investors fret about inflation. Gold miners like Newmont and Barrick have repeatedly failed to capitalise on the ore’s rising value. But new-found financial discipline and modest valuations present investors with a rare opportunity.

AI venture shapes up to be glue for the Muskiverse

31 Oct 2024

Tesla boss Elon Musk is in talks to raise money for his year-old xAI at a whopping $45 bln valuation. From satellites to cars to social media, his holdings have access to gobs of differentiated data. Self-dealing concerns aside, the OpenAI rival might just turbocharge the empire.

Uber’s deal chest would be well spent on groceries

31 Oct 2024

The $150 bln ride-sharing firm’s rich stock price gives boss Dara Khosrowshahi good reason to go shopping, especially amid the threat of robotaxis. Slower growth this quarter adds to the anxiety. A mooted Expedia tie-up would send the wrong message. Instacart is a better fit.

Siemens AI deal is baby step to higher share price

31 Oct 2024

The German trains-to-robot maker is buying simulation group Altair for $10 bln. The rich transaction will take years to pay off. But Siemens’ fast-growing software unit gains scale. Shareholders may give Siemens a higher valuation if CEO Roland Busch opts for a bigger breakup.

Robust banks impair pleas for lighter regulation

31 Oct 2024

Lenders on both sides of the Atlantic are doing relatively well, despite concerns over the effect of shifting rates. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists debate what is driving growth, and why CEOs are simultaneously bemoaning increased scrutiny from watchdogs.

It’s safe to count chickens even before they hatch

30 Oct 2024

Bigger and faster-growing fowl keep pushing prices lower and consumption higher. The $50 bln US industry is cooking, evidenced by Pilgrim’s Pride’s profitability, Chick-fil-A’s entertainment app, and more. None of it, though, will end a cyclicality that runs like cluckwork.

Lilly’s weight loss let-down is all about timing

30 Oct 2024

The obesity drug maker shed $50 bln of market value after sales disappointed the assumption that rising supply would meet endless demand. It may be a blip due to slow marketing. But a valuation triple industry norms leaves Eli Lilly no room to fumble its window to extract value.