United States of America

Ireland’s $25 bln tax bounty reveals OECD flaws

19 Nov 2024

Dublin expects a record budget surplus in 2024 thanks to a cash deluge from tech giants. In this episode of The Big View podcast, Pascal Saint-Amans, the architect of a landmark 2021 tax treaty, explains how the US’s failure to ratify the deal allows havens to rake in billions.

Friendshoring is set to become friendshoving

19 Nov 2024

India benefits from firms like Apple moving production beyond China. Under Trump, the country may get whacked by reciprocal US tariffs, dinged for its trade surplus and for a tightly managed currency. The flaws in rerouting supply chains are about to become apparent.

Trump’s ideal Treasury pick: squarer of circles

18 Nov 2024

The president-elect wants tariffs that could up inflation by 75 bps, but also booming stocks and calm bonds. Jostling is underway between banker Howard Lutnick, investor Scott Bessent and others to be this agenda’s key emissary. But personnel cannot resolve policy tension.

Trump 2.0 will see more European firms do a Holcim

18 Nov 2024

The $56 bln Swiss building materials group is splitting off its US unit and listing it separately. Some CEOs may think President-elect Donald Trump will spur a growth spurt. Fear of missing out, and a huge valuation gap, will make other European companies ponder similar moves.

Nvidia’s growing cash hoard points to M&A

18 Nov 2024

The chip designer could have $175 bln on hand in two years, surpassing even Apple’s giant pile of liquidity. Combined with a more deal-friendly US president, it opens up acquisitions. Founder Jensen Huang’s broad ambition means optics, healthcare and robotics are possible.

Charlie Ergen drowns in two kinds of debt

15 Nov 2024

The EchoStar founder may lose a deal to merge his satellite TV service Dish with rival DirecTV after bondholders balked at a $1.5 bln haircut. Years of bidding up assets and finagling the financial burden has tried creditors’ patience. It would be wise to come to the table now.

Biden trustbusters keep new ideas on life support

15 Nov 2024

The DOJ is suing to stop UnitedHealth’s $3 bln deal for in-home care rival Amedisys, arguing it would hurt patients. As with other recent US litigation, it targets issues beyond price, in this case quality and capacity. It’s a parting shot at codifying novel competition theory.

Investors ignore the law of long-term averages

14 Nov 2024

US stocks are trading at 38 times cyclically adjusted earnings, near the most expensive level ever on that measure. For more than two decades, equities have defied predictions that valuations return to the historical mean. Yet conditions which enabled juicy returns are fading.

Disney’s new storybook omits Dumbos in the room

14 Nov 2024

The Magic Kingdom uncharacteristically unveiled three-year targets, including a 10% operating margin for Hulu and Disney+. It’s a bold plan that glosses over troubled TV and streaming-service upheaval. Even more curious: the outlook extends beyond Bob Iger’s run as CEO.

John Malone M&A cleanup costs minority investors

14 Nov 2024

The famed cable dealmaker’s empire is reshaping itself, as giant Charter strikes a $13 bln agreement for Liberty Broadband. It’s mostly about the buyer getting back a lump of its own shares, at an 11% discount. The transaction is great for everyone except selling shareholders.

Shein margin wobble takes bite out of IPO value

14 Nov 2024

The e-commerce giant’s revenue growth slumped in the first half of 2024, and the net margin fell to 2% per The Information. Even if the business recovers, it creates uncertainty that’s compounded by a protectionist US government. Investors may struggle to see the upside.

Trump trades will run into Trump reality

14 Nov 2024

The president-elect’s victory sparked wild euphoria in markets. Now comes the realization that tariffs and immigration crackdowns threaten major costs, including the return of inflation. In this Viewsroom podcast, Breakingviews columnists discuss the globe-spanning concerns.

Elliott puts too many eggs in Honeywell’s basket

13 Nov 2024

The pushy fund manager’s effort to cleave the $150 bln conglomerate is backed by its biggest investment ever. A breakup like ones at other creaking empires such as GE makes sense, but invoking those successful splits is risky. A projected uplift of at least 50% looks optimistic.

Trump 2.0 goes warp speed on loyalty drive

13 Nov 2024

Unlike his first term, the US president-elect is making rapid appointments, with personal devotion beating experience or policy views. That explains Fox News host Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon and maybe Senator Marco Rubio as secretary of state. But some posts remain hard to fill.

Gulf’s AI strategy is built on more than sand

13 Nov 2024

The UAE and Saudi are raising $200 bln for artificial intelligence. A reliance on imported chips means AI superpower status akin to China or the US is unlikely. But even if the region can’t build a ChatGPT-killer, it can carve out a niche to make the exercise worthwhile.

Arbageddon dangers averted by only so much

12 Nov 2024

Merger arbitrageurs battered by tougher trustbusters and scarce deals cheered the US election results. The pending $35 bln takeover of credit card brand Discover and others may benefit, as more M&A gets teed up. A mercurial Donald Trump, however, is bound to blow up some trades.

The power and peril of American economic warfare

12 Nov 2024

Successive US presidents have wielded sanctions and export controls against rival nations. Donald Trump promises further escalation. In this episode of the Big View podcast, political scientist Henry Farrell explains how weaponizing finance and technology can be self-defeating.

COP29 will highlight bifurcated energy transitions

12 Nov 2024

Donald Trump’s election victory casts a pall over the UN climate confab in Baku. It will also make raising $1 trln a year from rich states to decarbonise the developing world even harder. But his return will also hasten a shift East and South in the fight against global warming.

Control of Congress will bolster second Trump term

11 Nov 2024

Winning the House of Representatives as well as the Senate would let the new US president build on his $4 trln 2017 tax cut and pass laws on immigration and healthcare. Republican infighting thwarted bigger changes last time. But the party is now more aligned with Trump’s agenda.

Reality-TV president will co-produce media shakeup

8 Nov 2024

Spotify star Joe Rogan and newspaper baron Jeff Bezos offered glimpses into how the industry is evolving. Broadcasters are also up against fickle consumers inundated by pricey streaming choices. The business models and deals taking shape can now expect input from Donald Trump.