United States of America

AI will become a Madison Avenue sensation in 2025

2 Jan 2025

Google and Facebook leveraged hefty brand-building budgets. Netflix and Amazon are also now running more commercials. Machine-learning business models will be similarly built. The cutthroat battle for a $900 bln bonanza, per Breakingviews calculations, is about to kick off.

Trading disruptors will mimic banks and beat them

2 Jan 2025

Market-makers like Citadel and Jane Street have mostly focused on low-margin business that JPMorgan, Citi and peers are happy to lose. In 2025, they’ll dabble in more lucrative trades and steal large clients. Wall Street’s grip on the $150 bln global-markets pie will slip.

Smart glasses give tech giants dangerous FOMO

30 Dec 2024

Sales of Meta’s $300 Ray-Bans that let wearers snap pictures and talk to a virtual assistant have topped 1 mln shipments. Advances in AI, chips and software mean rivals from Amazon to Baidu will roll out high-tech specs too. But all will struggle to catch sight of profit.

Art of the 2025 deal will be postBidenism

30 Dec 2024

A new US president probably means laxer trustbusters, adding fuel to lower borrowing costs and corporate quests for growth. Exxon, Comcast, Rivian and Google are primed to dust off older M&A plans or craft new ones. Even the White House is positioned to orchestrate a merger.

Jimmy Carter’s policy legacy is as germane as ever

29 Dec 2024

The former US president, dead at 100, paid a political price for stating hard economic truths and set an example for life after elected office. Inflation and energy woes, which plagued his term, are relevant again. The wage hikes and renewable power he championed also loom large.

Dick Parsons led way for nice guys to finish first

27 Dec 2024

The onetime Citi chair and Time Warner CEO, dead at 76, was a beloved Mr. Fixit. He earned the reputation from finance to philanthropy despite backing two M&A disasters for the ages. In a world that rewards hard-charging executives, he carved out a place for humility and warmth.

Insurance risks will be a proxy carbon tax

27 Dec 2024

Governments have failed to introduce a global levy to bring down fossil fuel emissions. But climate change is increasingly forcing up the cost of living. With insurance becoming more expensive and scarcer, the risk is that carbon pricing happens – but in a highly regressive way.

Buyout barons will find ways to douse fire sale

27 Dec 2024

Groups like KKR and EQT have $3 trln of assets, after years of slow sales. In 2025, pressure to offload companies will grow, putting paper valuations at risk. To soften the blow, firms will rely on innovative disposal tricks, like continuation funds and private share placements.

SpaceX will be a better $1 trln bet than Tesla

26 Dec 2024

The satellite network is a nascent monopoly, more useful and harder to dislodge every day. As at his car company, boss Elon Musk is chasing growth through maniacal cost-cutting. Thing is, that works better in space. Expect SpaceX and Tesla’s relative valuations to prove it.

Credit markets’ calm veneer will crack

26 Dec 2024

Rates are falling, and so too are corporate defaults. Yet firms like Altice France, with $25 bln of borrowings, will still have to grapple with high funding costs. Losses on opaque private-credit loans will mount. Wafer-thin returns for risky debt leave little room for error.

India’s green power producers will get a shakeout

24 Dec 2024

More than a dozen renewable energy assets are on the block as both private equity firms like Brookfield and GIC and industry owners like Siemens look for an exit. Rivals and flush public markets will welcome large players. Smaller ones will have fewer options.

Insurers will stake their claim in private credit

24 Dec 2024

Buyout giants like Apollo and KKR have grabbed hold of an industry dragged down by dire valuations and aged policy books and used it to crack open a $34 trln credit market. As private lenders consolidate, insurers will flip the script by making their own acquisitions in 2025.

Trump and Tesla will turbocharge self-driving race

23 Dec 2024

The incoming president could speed up the development of autonomous driving tech in the US. Elon Musk’s marque is poised to reap the rewards in what could be a $400 bln global market. Stragglers, like China’s BYD, will have to play catchup with a flurry of deals and partnerships.

Novo Nordisk weight-loss blow is warning for Lilly

20 Dec 2024

Shares of the $368 bln Ozempic maker fell up to 27% after trials of a critical medication disappointed. That will make it easier for upstarts like AstraZeneca to muscle into an increasingly competitive obesity market. It’s potentially bad news for market leader Eli Lilly too.

Chinese investment banking will roar back in 2025

20 Dec 2024

In 2024 regulators throttled share sales they feared would worsen a stock rout, triggering a 90% drop in IPO fundraising from a peak in 2021. With markets stabilising, Beijing can open the taps, end the deals drought and get capital to growth-focused firms.

California will put secession back on the map

20 Dec 2024

Independence movements from Canada to Scotland have quieted, but Donald Trump’s return is bound to rile Golden State voters. A $4 trln economy bigger than India’s means separation would be messy. Divergent agendas and supportive polls, however, make a plebiscite hard to avoid.

Microsoft’s AI setback: an imaginary letter

20 Dec 2024

After rushing headlong into machine-learning chips, data centers and startups, the software titan is set to suffer from the frenzy it helped foment. Breakingviews speculates how boss Satya Nadella might break the bad news to investors about a drop in valuations and spending.

Adland’s main post-M&A tussle is for second place

19 Dec 2024

Omnicom and IPG are creating the world’s largest agency, but Publicis’ superior growth profile should keep it in pole position. UK group WPP risks winding up in third place. Yet that hinges on whether advertising’s big merger fast-tracks AI investment, or impedes it.

Brick phones will ring in an unlikely revival

19 Dec 2024

Nokia handsets of the early 2000s are appealing to a generation seeking a digital detox. The market, which is only 2% of US devices, is growing fast having doubled in a year. With the likes of Australia banning social media for under-16s, Apple and Samsung may pivot or lose out.

Luxury firms will warily cut prices to boost sales

19 Dec 2024

High-end goods cost 54% more than before Covid. Yet the likes of LVMH refuse to blame lower volumes on more expensive wares. The fact is that rich Chinese consumers care more about savings than status symbols. Sacrificing margins will be an uncomfortable but inevitable strategy.