Italy

Telecom Italia’s latest twist dials down vital M&A

31 Mar 2025

Italy’s state-held Poste has bought most of Vivendi’s stake in the $7 bln domestic telco, making it the biggest shareholder. The deal clarifies Telecom Italia’s future direction. Unfortunately, it also probably makes value-creative M&A with foreign operators like Iliad harder.

US threat oils wheels of Pirelli’s China derisking

31 Mar 2025

The $6 bln Italian tyremaker is pressing its Beijing-backed shareholder to cut its 37% stake. Pirelli’s US growth plans may admittedly suffer if it doesn’t. But a shift might also enable tycoon Marco Tronchetti Provera to once again use geopolitics to improve his influence.

Berlusconis’ German M&A only partly eases TV bind

27 Mar 2025

The Italian family’s firm MFE has offered to buy the outstanding shares of its $1.5 bln rival ProSieben. Bulking up has a certain logic when TV is declining, provided the target accepts the cheap offer. But it ultimately won’t stem the outflow of viewers and advertisers.

ECB bank snub is good for Orcel, bad for M&A bulls

26 Mar 2025

The supervisor has queried Banco BPM’s use of the ‘Danish Compromise’ in its swoop on fund group Anima. That’s bad for the acquirer. But it’s good for UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel, who wants to buy BPM – and for those who want M&A to be based on logic, not capital arbitrage.

Italy’s great Generali game enters fateful round

10 Mar 2025

Rival investors are battling for control of the $52 bln insurer. A hostile takeover of Mediobanca and a new law could shift the power balance. Rival lender UniCredit might also play a role. The risk is that Generali’s governance becomes even more complex, echoing its past.

EU banks’ M&A secret weapon nears sell-by date

3 Mar 2025

The ‘Danish Compromise’ lets Europe’s lenders buy insurers while shielding the capital hit. Yet Italy’s battle over $15 bln Banco BPM suggests the tool can also be hard to deploy. If financial groups fear regulators could withdraw the wheeze, maybe it’s no longer much use.

Andrea Orcel’s M&A hunt homes in on Italy

11 Feb 2025

The UniCredit boss pledged bold returns, even as lower rates squeeze banks’ lending margins. Solid performance, and a whirl of rival deals, make his bid for $14 bln Banco BPM increasingly realistic. That’s just as well, since his pursuit of Commerzbank looks ever more distant.

New Italy bank M&A may yet be more than a sideshow

7 Feb 2025

On the face of it, BPER’s $4.5 bln all-share bid for Banca Popolare di Sondrio is just another tie-up in a domestic merger trail blazed by UniCredit and others. But while those deals remain live, they may not all happen. If so, bulking up now might allow BPER to play a role.

Hostile EU bank M&A raises risk of winner’s curse

30 Jan 2025

Unfriendly deals in the sector have a poor record, hence why they dried up after 2008. But now $72 bln UniCredit, BBVA and Monte dei Paschi have all launched unsolicited offers. Banks’ share-price pop explains the surge, and makes it more likely that bullish CEOs will overpay.

Renault and BMW have best airbags for auto crash

28 Jan 2025

European carmakers face carbon fines at home and trade duties in the US and China. Operating profit probably fell 26% on average last year. Valuations are low across the board, but France’s Renault and Germany’s BMW have less to fear than their rivals from the coming storm.

Mediobanca’s best M&A defence is the market

27 Jan 2025

The 13 bln euro bank is facing a hostile bid from MPS. CEO Alberto Nagel could in theory court a white knight, like Intesa, or try a deal of his own. But his own rebel shareholders and the Italian government make that tricky. Attacking the merger’s logic looks like his best bet.

Bank M&A in the new Italy evokes old Italy’s flaws

24 Jan 2025

Monte dei Paschi’s shares fell after it bid 13 bln euros for larger Mediobanca. There’s little logic in combining bailed-out MPS and activities such as wealth management. As with past Italian dealmaking, the benefits – if any – accrue to well-connected insiders or the government.

European mega fund deal swaps scale for complexity

21 Jan 2025

Insurer Generali and French bank BPCE are pooling asset managers. A quirky joint-venture structure, and sceptical Italian shareholder, add risk in a sector where M&A is already tricky. The quid pro quo is a chance to create a 1.9 trln euro champion in a consolidating market.

Versace is an awkward fit for most luxury buyers

10 Jan 2025

Michael Kors owner Capri has put the storied brand on the block. A potential $3 bln valuation wouldn’t be a financial stretch for the likes of Prada. Even so, Versace would represent a different strategic direction to the one the healthier luxury players have embarked on.

New Stellantis CEO’s first job is a US reset

2 Dec 2024

Carlos Tavares’ abrupt exit comes after the $34 bln carmaker hiked prices and lost market share. The ideal new CEO – able to steer a course around Trump, EU emissions rules and new tech – may not exist. Stellantis could settle for a US expert who can get car dealers back on side.

Tycoons’ odd telco bets mask a greater logic

26 Nov 2024

In recent years high-profile, rich investors like Carlos Slim have snapped up stakes in the likes of $19 bln BT. These haven’t always yielded juicy returns, nor prompted strategic shifts. But as a bet on much-needed consolidation, they may yet end up looking smart.

Italian bank M&A circus risks sidelining investors

26 Nov 2024

Andrea Orcel’s UniCredit offered 10 bln euros for Banco BPM, irking Rome and potentially eliciting a rival swoop from the target’s 9.2% owner Crédit Agricole. Meanwhile BPM may launch its own bid for Monte dei Paschi. The risk is that shareholder interests get lost in the noise.

UniCredit boss’ 3D chess M&A game could backfire

25 Nov 2024

Andrea Orcel’s bank offered 10 bln euros for Italian rival Banco BPM months after a raid on Germany’s Commerzbank. Both deals make sense, and having options may boost his negotiating power. But hostile moves can harden opposition, and UniCredit risks looking desperate for a deal.

Burberry buyer would need steel-plated trench coat

6 Nov 2024

Shares in the $4 bln UK luxury group rose after a website reported that Moncler was eyeing a bid. But the returns on offer look low, while boosting the brand will be costly. Possible suitors require deep pockets, and the patience to wait a long time for any kind of payback.

Italy has more to gain from France’s pain

14 Oct 2024

Rome borrowing costs are converging with Paris. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s stable government is pledging to contain its deficit and pushing through reforms, at a time when its peer is in turmoil. To press home the advantage, though, Meloni will need to take bolder action.