Greece

Hugo Dixon: Blame game is spur for any Greek talks

6 Jul 2015

Athens and its euro zone creditors may restart negotiations in the next few days. But the gap between them is huge. The protagonists may go through the motions to show they have tried rather than because they expect a deal will be clinched.

Euro zone markets and politics point to Greek exit

6 Jul 2015

European ministers could keep Greece in the single currency despite the country’s “No” vote. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has the domestic power to do a deal. Yet other member states have an incentive to punish populism. Calm peripheral markets are another reason to be tough.

What does that Greek "No" mean, again?

6 Jul 2015

The referendum question was as unclear as the consequences of each answer. A solid majority backed the government’s position against a deal with European creditors – but the deal wasn’t really on the table. Whatever does happen, it’s a poor electoral example for others to follow.

Greek "No" vote means ECB can no longer sit on fence

5 Jul 2015

A convincing anti-euro zone vote means the European Central Bank must decide whether to cut the Greek banks off from crisis loans, risking financial meltdown. In theory the ECB may be able to keep the sector going while the dust settles. But that may be politically impossible.

Hugo Dixon: Greece will struggle to stay in euro

5 Jul 2015

After the people gave an emphatic “No” to the creditors’ proposals, there are still several ways Athens could avoid the drachma. But none seems terribly likely. All routes will lead to further hardship.

Tsipras departure could unlock Greek debt relief

3 Jul 2015

European creditors are wary of writing off Athens’ debts because it could set a precedent. Yet if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras resigns after the referendum, a deal should be doable. Few politicians would follow his path of capital controls, economic strife and career implosion. 

Hugo Dixon: How to jump Greece’s next debt hurdle

3 Jul 2015

Even if the Greeks vote “Yes” in Sunday’s referendum, the country will struggle to pay a bond owned by the ECB on July 20. Failing to pay could trigger the bankruptcy of the country’s entire banking system. Financial engineering may provide a solution.

Life after default: Malaysia’s tips for Greece

3 Jul 2015

The Asian country shunned an IMF lifejacket in 1998. Greece could soon be in a similar boat. Breakingviews imagines former leader Mahathir Mohamad’s advice to Greek PM Alexis Tsipras: devalue, fix the banks, and boost spending – but don’t bother jailing your finance minister.

Hugo Dixon: Greeks choose between bad and terrible

2 Jul 2015

Voting “Yes” in Sunday’s referendum would mean Greece suffers at least two years of recession. Voting “No” would bring financial havoc in the short run followed by the return of the drachma, hyperinflation and deep-seated economic depression. The right answer is “Yes”.

Greece could use German-style last-ditch mediation

1 Jul 2015

A proven technique to resolve deadlocked wage disputes in Germany is worth a try in the Greek standoff. Both sides could name an impartial mediator who proposes a non-binding compromise. By bridging the lack of trust, a breakup prohibitively costly for everyone may be averted.

Hugo Dixon: Tsipras looks like he is crumbling

1 Jul 2015

With Athens defaulting to the IMF, public opinion moving against the Greek PM and the banks closed, Tsipras seems desperate for a deal with his creditors. But it is not clear they will cut him any slack. They may prefer to deal with his successor.

New Greek bailout bid mixes chutzpah with caution

30 Jun 2015

Athens wants a last-minute EU backstop loan to avoid a technical default if it doesn’t repay the IMF on Tuesday. Assuming the answer is no, it might convince Greeks to vote for euro exit. It could also serve as a signal to the ECB not to cut off emergency Greek bank loans.

Greece makes IMF stooge in game-theory drama

30 Jun 2015

Athens probably won’t pay the IMF debt due on June 30. It’s a tactic - the Greek government can and will honour the debt eventually. But non-payment puts pressure on the euro zone to sweeten its deal – or to collapse Greek banks and accelerate euro exit. 

Capital controls hit Greek economy at worst time

29 Jun 2015

Closing the stricken state’s banks would be a disaster at any time of year. But Athens’ capital controls are kicking in just as one of Greece’s main drivers – tourism – hits peak season. Even if Greeks don’t leave the euro, 2015 will be a writeoff.  

Muted markets validate EU hardball with Athens

29 Jun 2015

Next Sunday’s referendum could force Greece to leave the single currency. Yet bond markets are trading shy of full crisis levels. If things stay that way it eases the pressure on euro zone politicians to offer sweeter terms to the country’s leader, Alexis Tsipras. 

Hugo Dixon: It’s still possible to stop Grexit

29 Jun 2015

Athens has declared a six-day bank holiday after talks with its creditors broke down. But there are several ways Greece can still avoid quitting the euro. The most obvious is to vote in the coming referendum for the terms offered by the euro zone and International Monetary Fund.

ECB should resist giving Tsipras more ammunition

28 Jun 2015

Greece will shutter banks and limit withdrawals after the ECB refused to increase funding. That could help leader Alexis Tsipras convince Greeks to back euro exit in a July 5 referendum. The ECB could counter by maintaining its loans even if Greece defaults on the IMF this week.

Hugo Dixon: Tsipras gambles Greece

27 Jun 2015

The Greek PM is offering the people a choice between bad and extremely bad. Capital controls are likely before a July 5 vote on the creditors’ terms. It’s not clear their offer will be on the table even if the people want it. If they don’t, the drachma and more misery lie ahead.

Guest view: What Argentina teaches about Greece

25 Jun 2015

The South American nation tried to live a currency lie in 2001. But even clever schemes could not stave off crisis. Fernando Fernandez of IE Business School argues that Greece is in a similar situation. Clever plans cannot save the country from an untrustworthy government.

Time for EU to end Greek debt relief omerta

25 Jun 2015

Euro leaders in Brussels are refusing to discuss an easing of Athens’ debt pile until Greece makes solid reform pledges. That may make sense politically. But debt relief is a necessity, rather than a nice-to-have. If it were offered now, Greeks might budge on structural reform.