Greece

Europe is a fertile petri dish for GDP-linked debt

6 Jun 2017

Linking national debt payments to economic performance could help countries cope with downturns. There are many obstacles. Bad governments might fiddle statistics; good ones may be reluctant to pay a premium for flexibility. Even so, the euro zone is a good place to test the idea.

Hadas: Puerto Rico, Greece and bad-faith debt

17 May 2017

Both the U.S. territory and the euro zone laggard have fine beaches, irresponsible governments and a debt crisis. The most just and helpful response to such debacles is to force reckless lenders to write off loans. That’s a hard sell. Thankfully, few sovereigns are so careless.

Greek bonds are the last of the ECB free rides

5 May 2017

Athens has pledged to cut pensions and raise taxes, and could soon be eligible for European Central Bank bond purchases. That would push up prices just as other euro zone bonds start going the other way. Europe could drag its heels, but the likelihood of a messy default is low.

Viewsroom: Europe’s electoral frenzy

27 Apr 2017

France is about to choose a new president. The UK has called a surprise election. Germans head to the polls soon and Italians and Greeks could be close behind. As Brexit gets in motion and President Trump settles in, Europe’s election season will bring risks and opportunities.

Dixon: Start preparing for fourth Greek bailout

3 Apr 2017

Despite a last-minute wrangle over pensions, Greece is likely to get the next chunk of the money due under its current bailout plan. But this will only buy Athens time until the middle of 2018. After that, a new programme, and more fraught negotiations, will probably be needed.

ECB’s mandate is best left murky

30 Mar 2017

Two members of the central bank's executive board have mused on its accountability, after a report criticised the ECB for overreach. It indeed pulled some pretty off-piste moves during the euro zone crisis. Yet clarity could constrain its ability to fight future crises.

Greece is in a mess but not at the brink

3 Feb 2017

The government, its European creditors and the IMF are all being unreasonable in their own way over a bailout needed by July. The most sensible option would be for the IMF to withdraw. More likely is that if a compromise can't be found, the ruling Syriza party calls an election.

Europe’s “whatever it takes” becomes “what next?”

2 Feb 2017

Bond yields are rising as the end of money-printing looms. The return of a crisis like the one that prompted ECB President Mario Draghi's pledge to save the euro zone is unlikely. Yet as investors focus on political risk and debt, governments will face tougher choices.

Europe’s best antidote to populism is unpopularism

28 Dec 2016

Parties that promised to take on the elite had a roaring 2016. Even so, the withering of the moderate centre isn’t inevitable. In Greece the pendulum is swinging away from radical government. Liberals with sound economic policies can win – if they’re willing to make enemies.

Greece turns from Sisyphus into Hercules

6 Dec 2016

Euro zone lenders agreed to rejig some of its debt, which adds to the likelihood that future financial support isn’t just good money thrown after bad. Greece is no longer pushing a rock up a hill, but some pretty hefty tasks still stand between it and economic recovery.

Europe’s long weekend presents a triple threat

1 Dec 2016

In the space of just 48 hours Italy's premier will face a make-or-break referendum, Austria could elect a far-right president, and Greek debt talks will reach a head. All three have the potential to revive the centrifugal forces that could send Europe spinning out of control.

Guest view: Where is the IMF on Greece?

3 Oct 2016

The seemingly endless Greek crisis may erupt again unless the country gets debt relief, writes former Citibank executive William Rhodes. The International Monetary Fund should take the lead in spelling out economic forecasts and the decisions Greece and its creditors must take.

Greece will prove if IMF mea culpa is genuine

29 Jul 2016

The international lender's handling of the Greek 2010 bailout is censured by an internal report. Some of the critique is dated and IMF boss Christine Lagarde says lessons were already learnt. The litmus test will be how trenchantly she insists on new debt relief for the country.

Spanish politicians leave demographic bomb ticking

31 May 2016

While economic activity has picked up, the Spanish population is ageing faster than the EU average. Consensus and long-term planning are needed to tackle the burden this will place on the welfare system and growth prospects. The current polarisation in politics stands in the way.

Greek deal is rational, predictable, messy

25 May 2016

Both the IMF and Europe have compromised in Greece’s new debt plan. Athens’ fiscal targets are looser, but less so than the IMF wanted. Its debt costs will fall, but the relief is vague. There’s a hoary cliche about kicking the can down the road. This doesn’t even go that far.

IMF atonement offers natural justice for Greece

23 May 2016

The lender of last resort wants Athens to have less austerity and bigger debt relief. The move frustrates Germany’s desire to avoid overt fiscal transfers. Yet the IMF holds the aces, and its plan comes close to how a bailout should have looked had the fund done its job in 2010.

Schaeuble plays risky political games with ECB

13 Apr 2016

Low European rates fuel support for the far right, Germany’s finance minister says. Such sniping jars with Germany’s usual passion for central bank independence. Wolfgang Schaeuble may be aiming to attract disgruntled voters rather than slam the ECB. His strategy could backfire.

Dixon: Greece’s problems could become Britain’s

4 Apr 2016

If the IMF and the EU can’t quickly resolve their conflict over Greece’s bailout, graphically highlighted by a WikiLeaks transcript, Athens could run out of cash in July. The sense of crisis would mount in the preceding weeks, just as the UK votes on whether to stay in the EU.

New Greek opposition leader may cause instability

11 Jan 2016

The election of Mitsotakis, a liberal reformer, as leader of the centre-right New Democracy party means PM Tsipras now faces a credible opponent. While this is in Greece’s long-term interests, it raises the risk of short-term clashes between Athens and its euro zone creditors.

Qatar price for Turkish bank reflects weaknesses

22 Dec 2015

The Gulf state’s largest lender says it will pay National Bank of Greece 2.75 bln euros for Turkey’s Finansbank. A price equivalent to around one times book value looks cheap. But business conditions have worsened. Qatar National Bank may find it hard to generate economic profit.